Thank you. You have restored my faith is this site.
Thank you. You have restored my faith is this site.
The CDC reports 20 - 30 million flu cases per year in their disease burden estimates. It is unusual to have an asymptomatic flu case, but indeed they are reported. The RT-PCR testing for the flu is more specific than it is sensitive. hence few false positives and many false negatives.
Lead Foil Hat wrote:
Nobody is saying the virus is not real
Actually, many people have been saying that from the very beginning.
the data exists if you are actually interested wrote:
your conclusion is "meh, seems like to many deaths, must be bullshit"?
.
i also thought that was entertaining. it's not just the conclusion--that's the entirety of the reasoning. :) maybe it's like saying, it appears to be raining today, and it feels like it's raining, and we know stuff is all wet; but it hasn't rained on august 30th at any time in my memory, so it's definitely not raining.
considering consequences wrote:
assume the majority of tests used thus far are "overly sensitive." that may well be. one implication, in the absence of any other evidence, might be the possibility the allen/hardloper/dunes/jamin/wig/ymmv/facts/primo bot suggests--there isnt even a virus. :)
but, given all the evidence the bot ignores, why wouldnt we conclude from this additional piece of evidence:
1) holy crap, this thing isnt as infectious as we think (far, far less transmission than we were previously guessing),
2) holy crap, this thing is WAY more dangerous than we think (far, far higher cfr than the bot would concede) , and
3) holy crap, we are nowhere the population levels of immunity that would allow any vulnerable person and peace of mind at all??
... which would be reasonably consistent with even the very first models proffered in january.
(we're all just indulging confirmation bias)
Lol, yes.
They will just flip flop from:
1) It's already infected tons and we are at herd immunity
to
2) We are overtesting and causing mass panic + bad tests + whatever I can't really mimic this one because its so dumb
to suit their current mood.
There still has not been any proper test done to confirm there's a covid19 virus.
.
Thus, the virus has never been found, nor confirmed to exist and, therefore, there is no test that can determine if anyone has or has ever had a covid19 virus - because you can't prove that someone's had something that's never been proven to exist.
.
The test that's widely being done is for a portion of human genetics, so the odds are that everyone who gets the test will eventually be declared to be positive - for being a human! - not for having a virus.
.
All any additional tests are doing is finding more people who test human - which is being misreported as people being positive for a virus - which has never been proven to exist.
.
Summing up, the bogus testing is not being done to find any virus, but to mislead people into thinking they might have had one, to keep people confused and compliant to ever more draconian requirements.
So far the tyrants have accomplished the following:
.
> Gotten the majority of people to wear masks out in public, although none of the masks would protect anyone from a virus - even IF the virus theory was correct, which it isn't;
> Gotten people to obey the order to stay in the homes most of the time;
> Gotten people to accept their businesses closing and/or being layed off of work, although none of those would protect from a virus - even IF such a virus existed;
> Gotten people to stay more than 6 feet apart from each other - a ridiculous requirement only designed to condition gullible people to be more compliant;
> No requiring people have their temperature taken to be able to renew driver's licenses, and soon to be able to shop for groceries, again another step in making people more compliant to ridiculous and draconian requirements that have absolutely no good purpose;
> Next will be having voluntary vaccinations, soon to be followed by mandatory vaccinations - and that will be getting close to the end objective - to wipe out most of the needless people who are just taking up space on the planet <--- straight out of the eugenics playbook.
The CDC has estimated the COVID-19 infection fatality rate to be 0.65%. All the bars are closed, but I'll pretend I'm in a bar doing back of the napkin math.
10,000 people become infected with COVID-19.
65 people die, 9,935 people live.
Society is ordered into a state of slow motion semi activity because of an infectious disease with a tiny level of lethality. Elites whip the public into becoming cowering nitwits overcome with fear and panic.
Most people employed in government, finance and law have continued to enjoy a secure income throughout this entire ordeal.
Pan(ic)demic wrote:
"In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by The Times found.
Did you actually read and understand the article and the papers linked?
This is about setting cycle thresholds and reporting of cycles along with result. You won't get results in a day this way. Anyway, it doesn't mean with more cycles that there is no virus, just less and likely early in infection, so that is actually better information
MonkeyBananaPants wrote:
Not a single person posting here actually read the article where the snippet originated.
WTF you talkin' 'bout, Willis? I read the article--it was in the NYT today (and online yestereve, I believe).
the data exists if you are actually interested wrote:
your conclusion is "meh, seems like to many deaths, must be bullshit"?
well I have bad news for you, the true number is even higher at around 200K through mid august
https://weinbergerlab.github.io/excess_pi_covid/?fbclid=IwAR0pfhKepx-3X2MUcszEcrWFBqJghfDdBoKdR5ppX3aetkU9IYqRoZpKNTYThis whole thread is like a case study in data illiteracy. The 6% figure from the CDC is essentially meaningless. 80% of adults 65+ have multiple chronic conditions that are considered comorbidities and would be listed alongside Covid-19 on a death certificate. If you are a 65 year old with obesity and hypertension (e.g. most americans) and you die of covid, you still fucking died because of covid.
We are at the 6 month point since the first official death on Feb. 28
1.45 Million Americans were projected to die in that 6 months -a projection that was made before COVID-19 existed.
How many of the 200,000 you cite should not be included in the 1.45 Million ? All of them ?
You mean 1.65 Million have died when only 1.45 Million should have died ?
Really ?
It's a misleading test. wrote:
The test is for a portion of human genetic code, not for a virus.
Thus every human, when given enough tests, will always eventually test positive.
Why is this misleading- no, blatant lie- being allowed on LRC in post after post.
Pan(ic)demic wrote:
Ahhh yes, I remember when we closed schools, completely shut down the country, and forced everyone into masks over H1N1.
Yeah? Do you remember that H1N1 averaged about a thousand American deaths a month--while COVID-19 has had a thousand A DAY, even *with* lockdowns/masks/social distancing?
Do you remember that a *lot* of people, including one DJTrump, criticized the Obama Administration's response to H1N1?
DanM wrote:
How many of the 200,000 you cite should not be included in the 1.45 Million ? All of them ?
You mean 1.65 Million have died when only 1.45 Million should have died ?
Really ?
Yes, that's EXACTLY what it means: More Americans have died than would be expected, based on deaths during the same period over the last few years.
Multiple people have posted links to the data. Are you really too lazy to click on the links, scroll down, and read the charts? Really?
dunes runner wrote:
There still has not been any proper test done to confirm there's a covid19 virus.
Yes, the most accurate one is Reverse Transcriptase- Polymerase Chain Recation (RT-PCR)
dunes runner wrote:
The test that's widely being done is for a portion of human genetics, so the odds are that everyone who gets the test will eventually be declared to be positive - for being a human! - not for having a virus.
No, and saying this in good faith.... what the test (RT-PCR) does is convert a piece of the RNA (unique) to a matching piece of DNA (RT) then cyclically doubles it until detectable (PCR), the doubling amount threshold is the cycle threshold.
Quite obviously if you have recent infection with symptoms, the the cycles are way less than threshold. If you have distant infection and your immune response has done its job, the live virus culture is no longer there, but with enough cycles you can detect them, so hence the debate about cycle threshold.
IMO, it is relevant to say 'person is infectious' (low cycles/live virus) but irrelevant to dismiss presumed non -infectious ( many cycles) positive as it does not take away the fact that they had the virus and had contact with people, so tracing make sit relevant.
Converting the RNA to DNA does not make it 'human'. This is a lie, and if you believe it, you need to educate yourself on it, or if not able to understand, you should defer to someone who does.
LRC knows this (I presume the brojos do, but perhaps missed that at Cornell), but continues to give voice to it.
Sam is back, making personal attacks again, stating more false information that's not back up by the science.
Pandemics have been historically used to control populations and create conformity.
dunes runner wrote:
Sam is back, making personal attacks again, stating more false information that's not back up by the science.
You don't understand the relatively straightforward biochemistry involved in RNA testing.
I am happy to explain or link you to something. It's not hard.
COVID tests amplify viral genetic material
DanM wrote:
The CDC has estimated the COVID-19 infection fatality rate to be 0.65%. All the bars are closed, but I'll pretend I'm in a bar doing back of the napkin math.
10,000 people become infected with COVID-19.
65 people die, 9,935 people live.
Society is ordered into a state of slow motion semi activity because of an infectious disease with a tiny level of lethality. Elites whip the public into becoming cowering nitwits overcome with fear and panic.
Most people employed in government, finance and law have continued to enjoy a secure income throughout this entire ordeal.
Don't forget to tell all those that have been sick in bed for a week or two from this virus that they were faking it and should have have been in work or back in school. They are hurting the GDP.
Send all the extra ventilators back to the national stockpile because they are not needed. Just disconnect all those currently on the ventilators because the only data you care about is the number of deaths. If the death rate is low then they is nothing else to be concerned with. Getting the economy back to normal and the people back to work is more important since the death rate is so low.
Tell all the long-haulers it is all in their head and they need to suck it up.
Others will add it is just those that have underlying issues will die and will likely be dead within 6 months for their comorbidities. Let's see how good of an outcome the 40% of the US population that is obese has. Many of them also have hypertension and diabetes. Kidney disease will often follow. I am sure you have no obese relatives or friends or co-workers who are obese.
Just watch the death rate once you make these changes.
You can reply to my post with whatever you like but I won't be reading any replies.
New York and California are not the model states to look at Covid numbers for the USA. Their leadership dropped the ball big time. Sad.