Kejelcha, Chelimo, Cheptegei, and Barega lead ??????? 5,000m in Shanghai

Nobody will ever beat Bekele. Bekele is, and will always be, the best ever of all time there ever was forever.

I’ll be the odd man out and predict a 5K world record tomorrow from either Barega or Kejelcha depending on if Barega is there at the end. I think Kejelcha will time trial a world record attempt as Salazar said he would months ago.

reed wrote:

no way would the top 4 be separated by 4 seconds in a 12:53 race.

2018 DL 5ks, 1st/4th:

Brussels: 12:43/12:55

London: 13:14/13:16

Lausanne 13:01/13:04

Stockholm 13:04/13:14

Shanghai 13:09/13:10

Every 5,000m won between 12:48.00 and 12:58.99 in the past 10 seasons (2009-2018), 1st/4th

(Except Menjo in Turku & Eliud in Milan, smaller meetings)

Doha ‘10 12:51/13:08

Monaco ‘13 12:51/12:59

Zürich ‘09 12:52/12:58

Monaco ‘11 12:53/12:55

Stockholm ‘10 12:53/12:54

Oslo ‘10 12:53/12:55

Brussels ‘15 12:53/12:59

Rome ‘11 12:54/12:55

Stockholm ‘14 12:54/13:05

Rome ‘13 12:54/13:01

Zürich ‘10 12:55/12:57

Lausanne ‘17 12:55/13:06

Brussels ‘09 12:55/12:56

Rome ‘09 12:56/12:58

Eugene ‘12 12:56/13:01

Brussels ‘11 12:58/13:01

Rome ‘15 12:58/12:59

Brussels ‘13 12:58/13:01

Oslo ‘12 12:58/13:00

Eugene ‘10 12:58/13:01

Zürich ‘12 12:58/13:00

12:53/12:57, however...impossible

12:33.11. New WR

Y'all give doping waayy too much credit. It's not like there's a drug that can take a hobby jogger and turn them into a world champion.

"literally NO TESTING" is literally not the same as "almost no testing", unless you meant "literally" figuratively.

Coevett wrote:

trollism wrote:

If you're talking about Ethiopia, saying 'literally no testing' is much closer to the truth than 'strong anti-doping protocols'.

+1

Indeed.

And yes, I was talking about Ethiopia, as the compulsive liar Spade Detector knows full well.

https://deadspin.com/wada-discovers-world-record-factory-ethiopia-does-almos-1769983123

Literally lying in bed wrote:

"literally NO TESTING" is literally not the same as "almost no testing", unless you meant "literally" figuratively.

The irony is that there really was literally no OOC testing in the UK in 1981. No wonder that today's Brits are so much slower.

Cheptegei for me

bennyyyv wrote:

Y'all give doping waayy too much credit. It's not like there's a drug that can take a hobby jogger and turn them into a world champion.

You are right, but it's enough to have a serious impact if it makes them 20 seconds faster.

That's about 2,6%. Can drugs do this? Absolutely. Can drugs still do it, when the use is limited via testing/ABP? I don't know.

Nope. I'm in Shanghai and will be in Shanghai Stadium tomorrow night. It's going to be about 26 degrees celsius and 80% humidity tomorrow at race time. It's going to be fun to watch, but it ain't going to be world record.

Coevett will be Coevett wrote:

Literally lying in bed wrote:

"literally NO TESTING" is literally not the same as "almost no testing", unless you meant "literally" figuratively.

The irony is that there really was literally no OOC testing in the UK in 1981. No wonder that today's Brits are so much slower.

Hi Kenny.

Right.. wrote:

You are right, but it's enough to have a serious impact if it makes them 20 seconds faster.

That's about 2,6%. Can drugs do this? Absolutely. Can drugs still do it, when the use is limited via testing/ABP? I don't know.

Agreed.

We'll get closer to the answer of your last question if the Kenyans slow down now, and the Ethiopians don't.

Currently:

- all sub-12:40 are from the EPO/pre-ABP era

- only one sub-12:45 came in the 10 years of the ABP era

- that one sub-12:45 was from a country with very poor testing, and was drafted for some 4600 m

- of the 29 sub-12:50, only 9 were in the ABP era

- 0 sub-12:50 between 2013 and 2017

- last Kenyan sub-12:50 was in 2012, at the height of the IAAF corruption, and before serious testing started in Kenya

- all 3 sub-12:50 post-Diack are from Ethiopia with still very poor testing

Wow, so many coincidences.

Coevett wrote:

say no to drugs wrote:

Sounds exactly like the UK in 1981...

Rekrunner was right: doping does slow you down.

UK testing has always been among the best in the world as far as I know. Was there no testing in the UK in 1981 but stringent random out of season tests everywhere else? Is that what you're burping?

Wasn't Rutto caught via his ABP profile? In that case, wouldn't coming off the doping catch him out?

I see you posting all the time with the same basic message that East Africans are doped and others are not. It seems as if your argument is based primarily on the premise that testing in places like Ethiopia is very lax relative to Western countries.

But testing in the absolute is irrelevant -- what matters is the effectiveness of testing relative to the newest doping technology. Some of the biggest names in sports that have been caught doping (e.g., Lance Armstrong, Marion Jones) have been (a) been from the Western countries, and (b) athletes that passed tests frequently, but had doping technology that was ahead of where the testing was.

Given that there is a long list of European and American athletes across many sports that have tested positive through the years and their access to the most advanced doping technologies , what gives you the conviction that doping is primarily an East African problem versus something more universal?

I do believe in innocent until proven guilty. Only that person and people close to them know for sure if they are clean. Only cheating yourselves and serious health risks involved

Guess who came in 13th out of 14 in the World Championship final, 10 seconds behind Andrew Butchart?

Coevett wrote:

Guess who came last, 20 seconds behind the next runner, in last year's Brussels Diamond League 5000?

Cyrus Rutto.

Rekrunner was right: doping does slow you down.[/quote]

Aussiestatman wrote:

Cheptegei for me

He’s being a bit undervalued by the LRC crowd. He’s got a legitimate argument for world’s best distance runner, and isn’t totally out of his element at 5,000. He placed 2nd in 13:00 at this meet in 2016, at 19 years old. His last DL race was the 5k in Lausanne ‘17, where he pushed the pace after the rabbit dropped, running 5:08 for the last 2k to go 12:59. Last year he won the Commonwealth title in 13:50, putting 2 seconds on Mo Ahmed in the kick. That was all before he ran a 41:05 (13:41 5k pace) 15k world best and won world XC.

Not hard to imagine Cheptegei could blitz a 12:50 if he so chooses. Question is, would that be enough to get away from the other 3 big dogs? Probably not all of them.

As you point out in the above quote yourself, Kenyans have already been slowing down for years. Even the roads they have not been getting faster if you took out Kipchoge and Kiptum (and of course you should most certainly take out the latter).

The only track exception has been the 800m, but if you take out Bett and Kiprop, and also the other 800m guy who was busted last year, then even there the average top times are slowing.

This despite the population of Kenya increasing by 50% or something similar every decade, and all the reasons give to explain the rise of Kenyan dominance (increased GDP, better infrastructure etc) continuing to strengthen.

The Ethiopians should start slowing too, and likely we will get the first busts from there this year too. Although testing standards are still relatively abysmal, even compared to Kenya, things are slowly improving it seems. I can't believe that Ethiopia is suddenly producing a rash of Bekele type talent all at once. More likely they and their agents are trying to make a last cash grab at the EPO party before minimal testing standards are introduced. Kejelcha or Barega breaking the 5000m WR this year will set them up for life even if the new WR holder never breaks 13 minutes again.

There won't be any 5,000m WR. Not on my watch.

Coevett wrote:

As you point out in the above quote yourself, Kenyans have already been slowing down for years.

On the track, yes. Same is true for the Ethiopians, actually, if looking at the men only.

I should have been more precise: " if the Kenyans slow down now even more"...