I am about to make a very bold prediction. Diego Estrada, in the next 2 years, will run a 2:05 marathon.

If you ran 2:05:50 something I am sure you would consider yourself a 2:05 marathoner. Just like if someone runs 3:59.99 in the mile, they are a 3:59 miler, albeit barely. I am sure if you went sub 4 by only a few hundredths then you would tell people you have ran 3:59. Same concept. When the OP says 2:05, he means something under 2:06.

lolcats wrote:

Numbers Man wrote:

Most of the folks on here consider 2:05:59.9 to be 2:05 (I am not one of them, by the way). Assuming that this is what the OP meant then you really should be talking about what HM time you consider to be a requisite to run under 2:06.

That is all I have to say about this.

(1)If you ran 2:05:50 something I am sure you would consider yourself a 2:05 marathoner. Just like if someone runs 3:59.99 in the mile, they are a 3:59 miler, albeit barely. I am sure if you went sub 4 by only a few hundredths then you would tell people you have ran 3:59. Same concept. (2)When the OP says 2:05, he means something under 2:06.

(1) I always find it odd when people declare that they are sure of something when in fact they have no idea whatsoever about the truth of the proposition. In this case you have proclaimed that you are sure of something that is FALSE.

(2) I also find it odd when people claim to speak for the OP unless they are in fact the OP. Are you the OP, my dear boy?

Deliahh wrote:

Recognizer of Boldness wrote:

That is indeed a bold prediction. Here's to hoping you are right (but I doubt it).

Thanks Recognizer of brilliance, ...I meant boldness. Let me ask you a question. Of these runners, who do you think has the best chance of running a 2:05 in the next three years:

Ryan Hall

Dathan Ritz

Meb

Diego Estrada

Aaron Braun

Chris Solinsky

None of the above, on the bright side Galen Rupp will probably go under 2:05 in either Dubai, London or Chicago.

I'll start by saying I'm pumped by Estrada's run, particularly so because his goal was to run 60:00 so clearly he and his coach thought he was capable of doing it. This wasn't just some one-off magical day.That being said, OP, are you talking about running 2:05 on a wind-aided course? If that's the case, then I'll say there is some shot. If not, I'll say ZERO.As of November, http://www.alltime-athletics.com/mmaraok.htm says that 109 times in history a man has run under 2:06 in the marathon. Zero times has it been done on a non-aided course by a man not born in Africa. Zero.http://www.tilastopaja.org/ says 56 men have done it ever. Again zero were not born in Africa except for Ryan Hall who had a massive wind advantage.Wind-aided. Here are the odds.

Recognizer of Boldness wrote:

Estrada - 1%

Hall - 1%

Ritz - 0%

Meb - 0%

Braun - 0%

Solinsky - 0%

Who put Meb at 1%? He's 40 years old.

Dude, you are perfectly welcome to disagree with me, of course. But purposefully misrepresenting what I said is a childish tactic - beneath you, I would hope.

Recognizer of Boldness wrote:

rojo wrote:

Wind-aided. Here are the odds.

Who put Meb at 1%? He's 40 years old.

Dude, you are perfectly welcome to disagree with me, of course. But purposefully misrepresenting what I said is a childish tactic - beneath you, I would hope.

Recognizer of Boldness actually wrote:

Estrada - 4%

Hall - 1%

Ritz - 1%

Meb - 1%

Braun - 0%

Solinsky - 0%

Dude I don't think he was purposely misrepresenting your odds. He just replaced his odds with what you had previously written.

As far as odds, what would everyone consider the chance of Rupp and Bekele running 2:05? And, yes i consider 2:05:59 to be 2:05.

I would say:

Rupp - 30%

Bekeley - 70%

Deliahh wrote:

Unlike so many other US runners, Diego has guts to take it out hard and throw caution to the wind. Mark my words!

That's not the only was he is unlike many US runners

Deliahh wrote:

Dude I don't think he was purposely misrepresenting your odds. He just replaced his odds with what you had previously written.

As far as odds, what would everyone consider the chance of Rupp and Bekele running 2:05? And, yes i consider 2:05:59 to be 2:05.

I would say:

Rupp - 30%

Bekeley - 70%

Perhaps.

On a related note - I do not understand your Bekele - 70% reference. Hasn't Bekele already run 2:05:04? So wouldn't it be 100%?

I think that the odds you give Rupp sound about right (assuming that he ever wants to run the marathon).

I think he'll be better at the half! or even 10k!

midwestern miler wrote:

Does NOT translate wrote:

A strong half marathon means nothing when it comes to the marathon. The best American example would be Todd Williams. Todd was aggressive and ran a similar half marathon. He never broke 2:11.

Curp may be a better example.

Or Malmo.