Rio 2016 Marathon Teams

Ryan Hall is a DNF machine these days. Can't see him finishing the Oly Trials marathon, if he even starts it. Ritz FTW.

I'm working on a list of the females, headed by Flanagan, Devilla-Linden, and Hastings, which includes age and projected times based on relatively recent performances. (Maybe somebody can do something similar for the men.)

I'm thinking Hastings is looking vulnerable to an upcoming newcomer. Of course, injury two the other Big Two could open another spot. This Becky Wade gal has significant potential to grab a spot. The big unknowns are those that haven't done the distance, like Sara Hall, who seems to be getting better as the distance increases. That said, the actual marathon is a different animal.

Sciatica Road wrote:

This Becky Wade gal has significant potential to grab a spot.

From her Post-CIM win interview, she was looking to get back on track this summer. But that was before the Mammoth Track Club experience. Maybe the Kastors have convinced her to keep her head down and go after the big fish marathon, eh? Any word where/if she will marathon this fall?

listen up... wrote:

From her Post-CIM win interview, she was looking to get back on track this summer. But that was before the Mammoth Track Club experience. Maybe the Kastors have convinced her to keep her head down and go after the big fish marathon, eh? Any word where/if she will marathon this fall?

She was on the start list of the (May 4) Payton Jordan Invite Women's 10000m, but didn't run it. Don't know why, but she retweeted the following a week later:

Ryan Hall@ryanhall3

Training, especially after injuries,requires patience and faith. Not comparing yourself to where you've been but celebrating progress is key

Based on info gleaned from a recent Molly Huddle interview, I'm thinking negative with regard to Molly Huddle being on the Rio 2016 Women's Marathon Team.

InWyo wrote:

Women's however, is looking intriguing (in no particular order).

...

-Molly Huddle (maybe).

Where would you like to be in 2016?

I hope to be on the U.S. team. I don’t know what event—possibly the 10K. I don’t know if I’ll have a handle on the marathon if I try it. I don’t know if I’ll have the experience that you need, so I think it will be the 5K or the 10K.

But is the marathon a possibility?

I’d like to try one for sure in this next year or two.

Now that it’s transitioning to late summer, what are your plans for the fall?

I think I’m just going to do a bunch of U.S. road races. I don’t think I’m going to go back to Europe for the second half of the [track] season. I’m not sure if a marathon is going to fit in with this fall. The main focus for next year will be the world championships. Ray has a really great plan for us this fall. We’ll be doing a lot of thing we did last year—a lot of strength stuff. The road races fit in nicely with that. I’ll probably do the 12K [U.S. 12K Championships] in November, and I’ll probably do the B.A.A. Half in October.

...

Has your mileage stayed the same since 2010? Or are you doing more mileage now that you are a seasoned runner?

I’ve ramped it up a little bit in terms of mileage from last year to this year. I trained a lot with Kim [Smith] and Amy [Hastings] last year. I didn’t do the long runs, but I pretty much did everything else with them. I think that really helped. I did the 12K last November. I know that I responded really well to that. Going forward, I’d like to get into good 10K shape, get strength work in and then try the half marathon. So I think training with the longer stuff this year helped.

Sciatica Road wrote:

I'm working on a list of the females, headed by Flanagan, Devilla-Linden, and Hastings, which includes age and projected times based on relatively recent performances. (Maybe somebody can do something similar for the men.)

I'm thinking Hastings is looking vulnerable to an upcoming newcomer. ....

Here is the list with my current ranking:

CURRENT Recent

NAME AGE PROJECTED DISTANCE

Desiree Linden 31 2:23:54 FULL

Shalane Flanagan 33 2:22:02 FULL

Amy Hastings 30 2:31:23 10k

Sara Hall 31 2:28:30 10mile

Becky Wade 25 2:30:41 FULL

Lauren Kleppin 25 2:28:48 FULL

Serina Burla 32(almost) 2:29:00 half

Janet C-Bawcom 36(almost) 2:26:32 10mile

Clara Grandt 27 2:32:25 FULL

Caitlin Comfort 24 2:32:05 half

Clara Santucci 27 2:32:18 half

Rachel Ward 24 2:32:57 10k

Lindsey Scherf 28(almost) 2:31:02 half

Deena Kastor 41 2:30:45 half

Kara Goucher 36 x:xx:xx (no recent)

Emily Harrison 28 2:40:45 50k

The "CURRENT PROJECTED" are times either projected from "Recent DISTANCE" races or a Recent FULL time.

Sciatica Road wrote:

I'm working on a list of the females, headed by Flanagan, Devilla-Linden, and Hastings, which includes age and projected times based on relatively recent performances. (Maybe somebody can do something similar for the men.)

I'm thinking Hastings is looking vulnerable to an upcoming newcomer. ....

Here is the list with my current ranking:

.....................................................CURRENT........................Recent

.....NAME................AGE..............PROJECTED.......................DISTANCE

Desiree Linden........31................2:23:54..............................FULL

Shalane Flanagan....33................2:22:02..............................FULL

Amy Hastings..........30.................2:31:2................................10k

Sara Hall..................31..................2:28:30............................10mile

Becky Wade..............25..................2:30:41.............................FULL

Lauren Kleppin.........25..................2:28:48.............................FULL

Serina Burla..............32(almost)......2:29:00.............................half

Janet C-Bawcom.......36(almost)......2:26:32...........................10mile

Clara Grandt.............27..................2:32:25.............................FULL

Caitlin Comfort.........24..................2:32:05.............................half

Clara Santucci...........27..................2:32:18.............................half

Rachel Ward..............24..................2:32:57.............................10k

Lindsey Scherf......28(almost)...........2:31:02.............................half

Deena Kastor............41...................2:30:45.............................half

Kara Goucher............36..................x:xx:xx........................(no recent)

Emily Harrison...........28..................2:40:45..............................50k

The "CURRENT PROJECTED" are times either projected from "Recent DISTANCE" races or a Recent FULL time.

Yikes, Flanagan should have been at the top of the list.

Corrected below:

Here is the women's list with my current ranking:

.....................................................CURRENT........................Recent

.....NAME................AGE..............PROJECTED.......................DISTANCE

Shalane Flanagan....33................2:22:02..............................FULLDesiree Linden........31................2:23:54..............................FULL

Amy Hastings..........30.................2:31:2................................10k

Sara Hall..................31..................2:28:30............................10mile

Becky Wade..............25..................2:30:41.............................FULL

Lauren Kleppin.........25..................2:28:48.............................FULL

Serina Burla..............32(almost)......2:29:00.............................half

Janet C-Bawcom.......36(almost)......2:26:32...........................10mile

Clara Grandt.............27..................2:32:25.............................FULL

Caitlin Comfort.........24..................2:32:05.............................half

Clara Santucci...........27..................2:32:18.............................half

Rachel Ward..............24..................2:32:57.............................10k

Lindsey Scherf......28(almost)...........2:31:02.............................half

Deena Kastor............41...................2:30:45.............................half

Kara Goucher............36..................x:xx:xx........................(no recent)

Emily Harrison...........28..................2:40:45..............................50k

The "CURRENT PROJECTED" are times either projected from "Recent DISTANCE" races or a Recent FULL time.

Here is the women's list with my current ranking:

.....................................................CURRENT........................Recent

.....NAME................AGE..............PROJECTED.......................DISTANCE

Shalane Flanagan....33................2:22:02..............................FULL

Desiree Linden........31................2:23:54..............................FULL

Amy Hastings..........30.................2:31:2................................10k

Sara Hall..................31..................2:28:30............................10mile

Becky Wade..............25..................2:30:41.............................FULL

Lauren Kleppin.........25..................2:28:48.............................FULL

Serina Burla..............32(almost)......2:29:00.............................half

Janet C-Bawcom.......36(almost)......2:26:32...........................10mile

Clara Grandt.............27..................2:32:25.............................FULL

Caitlin Comfort.........24..................2:32:05.............................half

Clara Santucci...........27..................2:32:18.............................half

Rachel Ward..............24..................2:32:57.............................10k

Lindsey Scherf......28(almost)...........2:31:02.............................half

Deena Kastor............41...................2:30:45.............................half

Kara Goucher............36..................x:xx:xx........................(no recent)

Emily Harrison...........28..................2:40:45..............................50k

The "CURRENT PROJECTED" are times either projected from "Recent DISTANCE" races or a Recent FULL time.

Do you realize that Grandt and Santucci are the same person?

Thanks; computer error. That info corroborates her placing in my sophisticated model.

Cheers.

---------------------------------------------

Here is the women's list with my current ranking:

.....................................................CURRENT........................Recent

.....NAME................AGE..............PROJECTED.......................DISTANCE

Shalane Flanagan....33................2:22:02..............................FULL

Desiree Linden........31................2:23:54..............................FULL

Amy Hastings..........30.................2:31:2................................10k

Sara Hall..................31..................2:28:30............................10mile

Becky Wade..............25..................2:30:41.............................FULL

Lauren Kleppin.........25..................2:28:48.............................FULL

Serina Burla..............32(almost)......2:29:00.............................half

Janet C-Bawcom.......36(almost)......2:26:32...........................10mile

Caitlin Comfort.........24..................2:32:05.............................half

Clara Santucci...........27..................2:32:18.............................half

Rachel Ward..............24..................2:32:57.............................10k

Lindsey Scherf......28(almost)...........2:31:02.............................half

Deena Kastor............41...................2:30:45.............................half

Kara Goucher............36..................x:xx:xx........................(no recent)

Emily Harrison...........28..................2:40:45..............................50k

The "CURRENT PROJECTED" are times either projected from "Recent DISTANCE" races or a Recent FULL time.

Here is the women's list with my current ranking:

.....................................................CURRENT........................Recent

.....NAME................AGE..............PROJECTED.......................DISTANCE

Shalane Flanagan....33................2:22:02..............................FULL

Desiree Linden........31................2:23:54..............................FULL

Amy Hastings..........30.................2:31:2................................10k

Sara Hall..................31..................2:28:30............................10mile

Becky Wade..............25..................2:30:41.............................FULL

Lauren Kleppin.........25..................2:28:48.............................FULL

Serina Burla..............32(almost)......2:29:00.............................half

Janet C-Bawcom.......36(almost)......2:26:32...........................10mile

Clara Grandt.............27..................2:32:25.............................FULL

Caitlin Comfort.........24..................2:32:05.............................half

Rachel Ward..............24..................2:32:57.............................10k

Lindsey Scherf......28(almost)...........2:31:02.............................half

Deena Kastor............41...................2:30:45.............................half

Kara Goucher............36..................x:xx:xx........................(no recent)

Emily Harrison...........28..................2:40:45..............................50k

The "CURRENT PROJECTED" are times either projected from "Recent DISTANCE" races or a Recent FULL time.

Now that the women's list has been posted, some (e.g., Kara G) may feel slighted with their ranking, but I wish to say that anyone of these women could have an honest shot at making that team. It is the training over the next two years that's going to greatly factor into the final results.

If there are any other dark horses out there that should be considered for the list, post 'em up!

I think the only lock is Meb. Ritz and Hall are front runners for the next 2 spots. But its two years away and a lot can happen. Marathoners can still run at peak performance until their late 30s barring injuries. Speaking of which - what about Lagat ? He'll be 41 .. too old for the 5K, no chance for a medal in the 10K. He ran 62:3X in his first and only HM last year. Any chance he moves up to the marathon for a shot at the team in 2016 ?

Deadman Running wrote:

I think the only lock is Meb. Ritz and Hall are front runners for the next 2 spots. But its two years away and a lot can happen. Marathoners can still run at peak performance until their late 30s barring injuries. Speaking of which - what about Lagat ? He'll be 41 .. too old for the 5K, no chance for a medal in the 10K. He ran 62:3X in his first and only HM last year. Any chance he moves up to the marathon for a shot at the team in 2016 ?

Wow, now that would be awesome!

You post some interesting observations.

No one is a "lock" for the marathon teams, since injury uncertainty probably factors more into that race than any other distance, and all the major things (like GI) still have to come together on that day to perform.

However, by "lock", you are referring to a clear superior standout. The clear superior standout at this point is Flanagan.

I haven't done the detailed analysis of the men as for the women, but of the big past proven three, Hall, Ritz, and Meb (not including Abdi), I'm leaning toward Meb being the closest to that vulnerable bubble, if we assume a sub 2:08 is going to be required. Mentally, is he up to the will of the body? He said his career was all but complete with the Boston win, no? But Meb continues to surprise the doubters [because "that's what champions do"(?), and Meb "runs to overcome".

Lagat is an interesting idea. His first half was not head-turning, but look what 5k specialist Eliud Kipchoge has done with his move up.

Yes, that is exactly what I mean about a "lock". I was only discussing the men's team, but overall - Flanagan has to be the favorite between men's and women's as being the clear superior standout. And while Lagat's 62:3X is not head turning - it was his first and only race at that distance. Lagat has overcome father time so far, but I doubt he can cheat father time in the 5K or 10K in 2016 - so why not move up and take a shot ? Weren't De Castella and Lopes in their late 30s when they set WRs ? 2016 is Lagat's last shot at the Olympics - does he go for a 5K or 10K and go out with a whimper, or for the event where age is a little more forgiving ? And, does Lagat have the head for 26.2 miles? Only he knows. I just thought I'd throw out there as dark horse.

Note to self: possibly add Kellyn Johnson, Esther Erb, Mattie Suver, and Lauren Jimison to women's ranking.