Rupp running 1500m in Lausanne before attempting AR 5000m in Zurich

bekele has run 332.35

rupp will not run faster than someone who has him by 20s in the 5k, and 30s in the 10k

everyone predicting 332 low is out of their minds! rupp will pr more than likely which is great. but 332 low is insane, you're basically saying he is the best american from 1500-10k, no way.

he has a better shot at the 5k AR than running 332 low.

Lagat has announced he will be at Zurich.

he ran 3:34.75 in late April/early May, so I'd say

3:33

12:52

not so fast there wrote:

If Rupp breaks 13 it will be a disaster. How could he run that fast after dogging it in the Olympics? If he was in sub 13 shape he should have set a sub 13 pace in the 5k finals. No excuses about how he was "saving" himself for his monster kick, a kick that fizzled.

If Rupp breaks 13 them something is up. Maybe the special inhalant he takes for his "asthma" he wasn't able to take at the Olympics --too many testing samples taken-- and suddenly he can take it in a less likely-to-get caught race.

Um, you should maybe go review the 10,000?

3:35

12:53 hit or miss if he gets the record.

whatt??? wrote:

Rupp will never run sub 3:30. You need to be a 1500m specialist guy to do that. However, he has the ability to run low 3:32.

Wrong. Komen ran 3:29 and he wasn't a 1500m specialist. Granted, he was a freak of nature.

I saw the startlist:

Rupp, Lagat, Gebremeskel, Gebriwhet, Longosiwa, Koech, Both Bekeles, Kipkoech, Lomong, Kiptoo, Chepkok, Alimirew, and Soi, plus a lot of young East Africans. If the pace goes well we'll see a repeat of Paris, I'm sure.

I say:

Gebremeskel 12:43

Gebriwhet: 12:45

Rupp: 12:48

Lagat: 12:49

....

Lomong: 12:55

Realistically Rupp will be a couple of seconds behind the winner in the 1500. He'll hang with the pack and then get outkicked by them. That will largely determine what his finishing time is.

I don't think he's running the 1500m because he think he's fast or a threat. He's probably running it because after doing a 10k, 5k, and 5k all slower than his 5k potential it's hard to put his body into the right gear to PR in an upcoming 5k. He needs that 1500m to act as a jumpstart, remind him what it's like to compete at faster speeds, and then let him put the two back together for a 5k AR attempt.

martian manhunter wrote:

So much depends on the rabbits.

So much depends upon a red wheelbarrow glazed with rainwater beside the white chickens.

see william run wrote:

martian manhunter wrote:

So much depends on the rabbits.

So much depends upon a red wheelbarrow glazed with rainwater beside the white chickens.

Plums, etc

sjc wrote:

bekele has run 332.35

rupp will not run faster than someone who has him by 20s in the 5k, and 30s in the 10k

everyone predicting 332 low is out of their minds! rupp will pr more than likely which is great. but 332 low is insane, you're basically saying he is the best american from 1500-10k, no way.

he has a better shot at the 5k AR than running 332 low.

This is wrong for so many reasons. 1st Rupp beat Bekele at 5000 and 10000 this season so Bekele doesn't have Rupp at all. If you mean lifetime bests than you are ignoring a lot of important factors. One of the most important is that Rupps PB's are on a consistent upward trajectory, Bekele's are not. Another one is that Rupp and Bekele are not the same runners, Rupp may be able to blast Bekele over an 800 but never run under 26:38, which Bekele has obviously done.

3:32 may not happen, but if it's a 3:30 race than I bet it will. On any given day right now Rupp can break up the top 5 US milers and probably would never come in as 5th. Probably 2nd to 4th if they were to race 5 times under his normal training program and not trying to train as a 1500 runner.

The difference is they can't do what he can at 5000 or 10000, but that doesn't mean he cannot do what they could at 1500. That is not to their discredit, it's just how good he is.

Shoebacca wrote:

Realistically Rupp will be a couple of seconds behind the winner in the 1500. He'll hang with the pack and then get outkicked by them. That will largely determine what his finishing time is.

I don't think he's running the 1500m because he think he's fast or a threat. He's probably running it because after doing a 10k, 5k, and 5k all slower than his 5k potential it's hard to put his body into the right gear to PR in an upcoming 5k. He needs that 1500m to act as a jumpstart, remind him what it's like to compete at faster speeds, and then let him put the two back together for a 5k AR attempt.

I think that this is pretty accurate. We do not know how tired he is (peaking training, then 10,000F (Silver)/5000H/5000F) but I suspect that his legs will be a bit dead so 3:33-3:36 might be the result. It is intended to gear him up, I think.

Jager is going to do similarly, with a couple of 1500s before finishing with another 3000.

As ever, we get a few intelligent comments, some wishful thinking, and a then a general deluge of idiots.

I'd like to see Jager get into Zurich and break 13 as well after that 7:35. Salazar has always been very smart about preparing Rupp to run very fast end of season races for pr's. When Rupp enters these races he pr's pretty much every time. And Salazar has him run a shorter prep race to make the pace seem easy, as here. Of course, you don't know how he'll feel after winning silver, celebrating, and then running tired in the five. But he ran that 3:34.7 in a 3:34 race in May, so in a 3:29/30 race and in far better shape he could easily drop two to three seconds. So, I'm going to predict 3:31.9. And then Lagat has set his goal at 5000m this year as 12:49, so I'll put him right there, since he seemed healthy at London and was ready to medal if not for the trip. Rupp looked tremendous in the trials and Olympic 10k at the end, so I think that he is in 12:46 shape and will run that. Good that he will not have Farah in the race because he always defers to him.

sjc wrote:

bekele has run 332.35

rupp will not run faster than someone who has him by 20s in the 5k, and 30s in the 10k

everyone predicting 332 low is out of their minds! rupp will pr more than likely which is great. but 332 low is insane, you're basically saying he is the best american from 1500-10k, no way.

he has a better shot at the 5k AR than running 332 low.

Bekele could have gone way faster than that. He had goals to crush that time that were detailed when his career went off track.

Also Bekele does not have him by 20/30 secs in the 5k/10k. Rupp ran that 26:48 last year. He's most likely in 12:52/26:35 shape was what I thought earlier in the year. Still think that's close.

Typical letsrun moron wrote:

not so fast there wrote:

If Rupp breaks 13 it will be a disaster. How could he run that fast after dogging it in the Olympics? If he was in sub 13 shape he should have set a sub 13 pace in the 5k finals. No excuses about how he was "saving" himself for his monster kick, a kick that fizzled.

If Rupp breaks 13 them something is up. Maybe the special inhalant he takes for his "asthma" he wasn't able to take at the Olympics --too many testing samples taken-- and suddenly he can take it in a less likely-to-get caught race.

Looks like someone watched Without Limits again last night and then got hammered before getting on the message boards.

+1

bekele's wheel-house was 60-62 seconds per lap.

meaning he was comfortable to run many laps at this pace, then drop the final 400 in 53 ish for the win.

multiple 55-57 second laps are not comfortable for 5000m guys no matter how talented they are. sure with a number of attempts bekele could have gone 330 in the perfect race, but he'd be very very uncomfortable maxing out at this pace!!

post epo era - bekele has lost about a second per lap.

333 in a hoover-race (draft nearly all the way behind 5 or so windbreakers) sounds about right for rupp. even 332 late. but NOT FASTER.

the above hypothetical 333 is equivalent to 336-7 solo.

We are talking about a 1500 m race. If they are comfortable running a 3:30, then something is wrong.

#YoBro wrote:

So he was saving himself for Zurich.

3:33

12:51 AR

Yo No Bro wrote:

You're kidding, right? Giving up a chance at an Olympic medal in the 5000m to get a national record? Really?

How long have you been here 3 weeks?

There has to be a list of letsrun memes somewhere. Saving it for Zurich is a joke bro.

Your welcome.