Cooper Lutkenhaus 400/1500 potential

If Cooper ran a 1:50 800m and tried to keep going at that pace as long as he could, how far would he get?

Probably at least 1200, but slows not long after that.

Alberto Juantorena. Seb Coe. Steve Ovett.

It's fun imagining that Cooper could have a career like one of those three,

Why would this have been down voted? Everything I said was correct. Bolt 100/200, wouldn’t have been nearly as good at 400m, noted businessman Michael Johnson, 200/400m, would have sucked at 800m and Juantorena 400/800m, ran a 3:44.

Many people believe any runner can move up in distance, but it’s no easier than moving down. That Lutkenhaus has 400-1500m range is unlikely and when he’s in 1:42 fitness he’s in a position to run as fast he possibly can at any other distance. Do people think that if he bumped his mileage to 40 mpw and ran XC, he would slow down to 1:44, but gain 5 seconds in the 1500m? People have cited his 4:06 mile, but he didn’t win that race even though he probably had at least 1:45 fitness at the time.

I just took a look at the top 20 1500m times of all-time. Names that stood out to me immediately were Cole Hocker, Yared Nuguse, Josh Kerr, and Jake Wightman because I thought: how many of them could run a 4:06 mile or its 1500m equivalent at 16 years old? Let's forgot about the 1:42 speed for a minute. I bet at least 40 percent or slightly more (maybe even closer to half) on the top 20 list were not capable of running a 4:06 mile when they were 16 like Cooper has. That data point says to me he's clearly shown the potential to be one of the best milers in the world because he's already ahead of where many former medalists and Olympic and World champions were in the mile at 16 and 17. When he actually works on his aerobic base and strength as he matures in the next few years, his 1500 potential will be frightening.

Yeah, 100%. I’m mostly just interested to see where he lands if he’s put in a paced 3:30 1500 race.

He would definitely have to put in tons of work to reach close to his potential in the 15/mile, and I guess we’ll see if he has that desire, but if we are to believe that athletes like Hoey can naturally improve their performances this drastically at such a late age, and Lutkenhaus is already at the level he’s at now, who know what is possible down the road.

Scary to think that he may have the same potential as those great 1500m runners in the 1500m. If he were able to run a 3:44 mile in the future, imagine how absurd his 800m time would be. Add in the fact that he ran his 4:06 no where near his peak, I'd guess he was in 3:58 shape at the time he ran his 1:42 at the very least.

He's in a unique case however, as it's unclear whether having such a good natural speed base is an advantage or disadvantage for his future in endurance events, but I'd lean towards the former (that being said I don't understand fast/slow twitch muscle fibers very well). If this guy is more talented in the mile than those all time great milers, we could see some video game typa times in the 800m, I'm talking 1:38 as stupid as that sounds.

Performance wise, 1:38 is equivalent to 3:35 in the mile, 42:00 in the 400m and 7:06 in the 3000m. Running 1:40 and setting a new WR, would be a phenomenal career achievement. His 800m PR is already absurd.

Coe described himself as a "jumped up 800 meter runner," who had run one mile race per year until he smashed WR in 1979.

4:25-5:15

I had posted before that if the training was tweaked a bit, Lutkenhaus could run 3:35.00 outdoors. His performances indicate (to me) that he is a 800/1000 type, and they usually bridge the gap up to 1500m nicely.

Krummenacker went 1:43.98 and 3:31.93.

Brandon Miller has gone 1:43.14 and 3:35.27.

Brazier: 1:42.16 and 3:35.85.

I imagine that 2:15.00 for 1000m indoors was reachable this year.

The 800m has stagnated for far too long, people were running 1:41 50 years ago, rudisha could have run 1:40 low had he had a pacer in the 2012 final (and 1:40 flat without the rounds). Couple that with the Cooper being an anomaly, I'm willing to predict that that time is a possibility in the future, no matter how stupid it sounds.

This was included early in the OP’s lead post. I know you like to THOUGHTSLEAD, but sometimes you should THOUGHTSFOLLOW.

Ingebrigtsen has the highest WA points score in the distance races of 1320 for his 7:17.55 3000m. A 1:38 comes to 1397, and if someone is a mere mortal, it’s not going to happen. The strongest distance runners will slow down to their 400m time, plus 4 seconds, for an 800m. For Lutkenhaus, 6 seconds will be tough land at that spread, he would need to be capable of 43:00.

Cooper doesn't need to worry about the 1500/mile. He is an 800 runner with powerful sprint gears. Does he look like El G to ya'll? No. He has shoulders and will likely only get more muscular. Everybody here loves the 1500 but not all athletes should just move up! I hope Cooper doesn't bother with it. Bol moved up and is now hurt. Let Cooper run 1:41 and 44 high on his 30 something miles a week being potentially the most talented male 800 runner we've seen.

I agree for the most part, he should stick with what is working and what he enjoys.

But no harm in hopping in other races here or there…200, 400, 15/mile, or even a 3k if he feels like it.

Staying healthy should always be #1 priority, only make significant training changes if he ends up plateauing for a couple years

No one is saying he would switch events. He's obviously an out of this world 800m runner.

Still, he can very likely run the fastest 1500m ever run by a HSer before he graduates. Currently 3:34.36.

Right. No one is saying he should switch events, obviously. But an early season 400 and/or 1500 just to mix things up would be fun and illuminating. Any 400 would do, and he could find a low-key 1500 with a bunch of 3:38 guys for the workout.

Who knows for sure...yet.

But it's not disrespectful to the world's top 1500/milers to say he could have that range. Lutkenhaus ran a 4:06 1600 as a Sophomore!!...which is faster than Hocker ran in High School period and faster than Hobbs Kessler ran until his Senior year in HS. It's also significantly faster than Josh Hoey ran in High School. These three athletes have 3:27, 3:29 and 3:29 PRs as pros but Lutkenhaus is already faster than them at the same age in an off event for him.

No disrespect. Just facts.

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4694207

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9487570

This is a timeless discussion.

People are eager to categorize 800 standouts as either 4/8 or 8/15, but there’s actually no reason someone can’t be equally strong in both (and stronger at 600, 800, 1000). World Athletics gives 1200 points to both 44.7 and 3:33.2 respectively, and that’s a lot like Rudisha was probably capable of at his 2010-2012 best, combining Eliud Kipchoge’s 1500 PB with Kenny Bednarek’s 400 PB to be the fastest 800 guy we’ve ever seen.

I think he can do a 1:38.9 with a 43.5 400