Yared Nuguse will break WORLD RECORD tomorrow

softest record on the books wrote:

3:43.13 has been waiting to be broken since it was set, but everyone who could have done it (El G, Lagat, Nyeng) either got slower or retired.

3:26.00 is equivalent to WAY faster than 3:43.13. Even with the simple minded multiply by 1.08 thing it's a 3:42.2. And I don't agree that 109.3 meters takes 16.2 seconds, tacked on to a race paced at less than 14 second per 100m pace. It's really worth a 3:41 high.

All imperial distances are run far less frequently, so of course they lag behind. And that's why it's a bad sign these current crop of top 1500 elites keep going imperial (or off-distance metric) for their record hunts. They can't beat 3:26.00 and they all know it.

26mi235 wrote:

Often when there're several that are really good a record attempt gets derailed into something important, a Race.

Here there are so many top guys that you can't sit back and hope that you can beat five or more top guys because you're odds are not that great. So that improves the odds of a fast race.

There have been similar great fields, one was the Golden Mile where Coe ran 3:49.0 breaking Walker's 3:49.4. Walker, Scott, Wessinghage, Coghlan, Steve Lacy (who was sick and so not a chance to do well) effectively served as a 57.0/57.0 Rabbit.

colorunner123 wrote:

Forecasts says it will be around 80 degrees with ~9 mph wind. No world records today.

My take here wrote:

2) Only one pacer listed on DL website - Abe Alvarado, who also paced the 2024 Bowerman Mile. For an attempt at a legendary record like 3:43.13 you should have at least 2 pacers, if not 3. I doubt Alvarado could get Nuguse to 1200m at WR pace. Ritz did say he wants the pace thru 800 to be 1:50. Alvarado could definitely do that, but probably could only get 100-200m further. That would leave Nuguse front-running the final 600-700m. Jakob front-ran the final 700 in 2023 to run 3:43.73, but he is a stronger athlete than Nuguse.

Goose342 wrote:

Surprised no one thinks this is possible. Even without Jakob in the race, he just needs someone to try to push the third lap, or maybe he can even do it himself. How far is the rabbit taking them?

3:43 two full years ago. Obviously he was pulled the whole time by Jakob, but I think he has the fitness to do it. 3:46i as well as his recent 1:44.

Reddy! wrote:

That's cute. WR aside, with a relatively even field, I'm honestly interested to see how the pecking order plays during the race. Who has the balls to take the pace, or who will take the race by its horns in the finally 600-700m. Or maybe it will come down to 6-8 guys in the finally 100m. I think it will be a different race than what we are used to without the main protagonists.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

That’s a perfectly fine forecast for mile running.

Dates wrote:

Kickers usually win wrote:

Jeez. Now we have “full” years.

If someone ran well in the December 2023 BU meet and then ran well in a January BU or February millrose meet in 2025, would you say it was 2 years apart?

10pm local is a great TV slot, thanks wrote:

Best case for fans we'll have someone sacrificing themselves to stay on the lights until 1200, then all of a sudden they're 2 secs behind at 1400. Modeled after the classic 800 positive split we see in 95% of races, but instead of 1 fast / 1 slow we obviously get 3 fast / 1 slow because it's a mile.

3:45.92

kmaclam wrote:

I am so psyched. Starts in a few minutes. That Men's International mile field is loaded. Could their winning time be within 2 seconds of Bowerman winner? Weather looks good. mid to upper 70s, a little wind, no humidity.

Goose342 wrote:

Surprised no one thinks this is possible. Even without Jakob in the race, he just needs someone to try to push the third lap, or maybe he can even do it himself. How far is the rabbit taking them?

3:43 two full years ago. Obviously he was pulled the whole time by Jakob, but I think he has the fitness to do it. 3:46i as well as his recent 1:44.