Alslsz wrote:
I think that this observation, while correct in a vacuum, doesn’t give enough weight to all of the uncontrollable variables of marathoning.
The weather, the competition, your immediate health, your injury situation, travel and nutrition working, menstruation, all these things have to align and there is just a measure of luck. Within limits, the more chances you have, the better your chances are of the stars aligning.
I 100% agree with everything you have written here, except the last line. If you are over-racing the marathon distance, you have already put yourself a step behind and even if all the other stars align you still won’t perform as well you could have if you weren’t over raced. I don’t believe the logic of giving yourself more chances to try to catch that perfect day one of those times. You have to zero in on one, control everything you possibly can, and pray the marathon gods are with you on that day.