Why Jakob Ingebrigtsen might be delusional (about his own capabilities)…

In case the above post isn't clear, maybe I should state my basic assumptions:

- We can think of endurance performance (in a very oversimplified way) as being the product of two characteristics.

- One is "speed," which in this context is basically what you need to maximize to be a great 800m runner. In the critical speed framework, this corresponds to anaerobic capacity.

- The other is "endurance," which is what you need to max out to be, say, a great half-marathoner. (You could say marathoner, but at that distance a bunch of other complications like muscle durability and ability to refuel come into play.)

- Every distance on the track requires a mix of speed and endurance. The mile, by some estimates, is around 50-50. It's not a linear curve: 5,000 and above are all >90% endurance.

- Two runners who achieve the same time in any given event will likely do so with a different mix of speed and endurance, which will be reflected in how well they perform at neighboring distances.

I do think Jakob is too tall to perform well in the half and the full.

No offense, but can you explain your peculiar unit selection?

unlikely.i dont really see him having a super long career.

Kelvin Kiptum tallish

started as a sprinter, won provincial 100, 200m

lousy 1500,

the most bizarre profile possible.

with investigation one would assume he might have run 23high 200m, with weak competition and skipped over track for road running and bucks. explaining all.

however it would be good to look deeper into the facts.

Jakob is the one that is ot like the others.

yes

you do know he ran a 10k road in less than optimal condition in 27.5? when he was like 18 or 19, right?

That comparison is so vastly different from Jakob vs. Jacob that it’s practically irrelevant.

What if Runner A and Runner B are doing the exact same training, A is a 4:10 miler and B is a 4:13 miler, A is a 1:49 800 runner and B is a 1:54 800 runner, A is 6’0”/160 pounds and B is 5’8”/130 pounds. It’s no longer clear that Runner A can beat Runner B at 10k, and there are indications that Runner B might smoke him by a significant distance.

There are two aspects of the original post that I find most egregious. As has been repeatedly called out already, Warholm could blow 2:00/800 away, and OP slipped that in like it was something we could all agree on. Second is simply his confusing use of the words “talent” and “fast”. He writes in the first sentence that he thinks Jakob is “too fast to have any talent for the 10000m,” and later that Jakob cannot run “a fast 800” or “a fast 10000”—yet he also envisions Jakob medaling in the 10k, at World XC and beating Mo Farah’s PB in the half, which requires more than a little “talent” in those events.

If all the OP is really trying to say is that he doesn’t believe Jakob will break WRs at 10k, half marathon and marathon and that his strongest events are 1500-5k, then I agree. But I sure wouldn’t say he’ll never run “fast” in those events.

I think Jakob might prove somewhat comparable to Farah at 10k/half marathon. At 10k, extremely hard to beat in a championship race but not fast enough to go after the WR. At half marathon, among the best in the world, European record setter, but not able to hang with Kiplimo in a fast race just like Farah had to settle for a distant 3rd behind peak Kamworor in the 2016 half marathon world championship.

^ In this thread I speculated that Jakob is capable of 26:24 and 58:30. THOUGHTSLEADER, one of the best posters on this site, thought there was too great a disparity between those two times and theorizes Jakob could run 58:00. I tend to think Jakob’s weight would begin to affect his performance at the half marathon vs. a guy like Kiplimo—it’s just a lot more to carry for 21.1K. Yomif Kejelcha is slighter than Jakob, is plenty fast at 5k and has run 58:32 at Valencia in four cracks at the distance, so I could see Jakob being comparable: very good but not the best.

I think you are wrong. In his 2 mile WR he looked like he could run 60 second laps all day long. If he could get someone to pace him I think he could be the first sub 12:30 in the 5000m and first sub 26 min in the 10000. He has good form

Warholm not being able to break 2 is insane, we had a 46.7 guy in our DIII conference go 1:54 in a one-off race, Warholm is faster than that over hurdles.

Thinking Jakob can run a solid 10,000. 26:40-ish? He could possibly grab a global medal there. Look, if Said Aouita can run a world class 800 and a world class 10,000, so can Jakob.

Some might say Aouita is the better athlete (adjusted for his era) - but they have similarities.

Karsten Warholm certainly could run sub-2:00 for 800. Actually, Sydney McLaughlin might be able to run sub-2:00 for 800. Among men, at least, there’s a history of 400 hurdlers running solid times at 600 (indoors) and 800 (outdoors). In 1979, Harald Schmid ran 47.85 for the 400 H (ranking second globally) and 1:44.84 for 800 (ranking fifth globally). Among Americans, David Patrick ran 1:44.70 for 800 and 47.75 for the 400 H, later making the Barcelona 400 H final.

Jakob is a 1:46 800 runner. That why he thinks he can beat Warholm, not because Warholm cannot run sub 2. I would put the over/under at 1:50 for Warholm.

Yes you are an idiot. Jakob will break the current 10,000m record and he will go sub 1:45 in the 800m if he tries seriously in his high season under good conditions.

Jakob is one of the fastest finishers of the current 1500m runners despite what all the negativists have convinced each others about.

More non sense:

Jakob´s 1500m PB is also better than mine but what will my chances be in the 10,000m?

We don´t know exactly what Jakob can run in the 10,000m. I say at least sub 26:30 as also proposed by other posters.

But if Kiplimo runs the 5000m in Búdapest we will get an idea about who is the better, also in the 10,000m. If you are world class in the 5000m you will normally also be world class in the 10,000.

Jakob´s training has always been more suitable for long distance than for middle distance.

i dont see him ever breaking the 10'000 record,and i think even the 5000 will be a bit of a stretch.im not saying he wont come close,especially in the 5000,and yes,hes super quick in the 10,but close to 26 flat is probably beyond him.

Ok, people have been dogpiling it already but the idea that Karsten Warholm couldn't run sub 2 is so idiotic that I literally have to say something.

Few things:

the 400h and 800m have significantly more in common than most people realize or consider. There are a ton of great examples but here are 3:

Harald Schmidt: 20.6, 44.9, 1:44.9, 47.3 400h

Britton Wilson: 49.1, 53.0 400h, 2:01

Michaela Rose: 1:59,0, 56.8 400h

Don't even get me started on Femke Bol. She literally does 500m repeats in practice.

There are tons of other examples out there. Most guys running 49 for 400h can typically run around 46 and 1:55 just off of their speed and strength, and training between the 2 events is actually pretty similar volume and speed wise. Warholm runs 45.9 IN THE 400h. Dude could probably run close to 1:44-1:46 with little to no prep and 1:43 if he trained for it.

I waited for your post because I knew you would support my view (regarding Jakob, not Karsten). Everything you are writing from “If all the OP really is trying to say…” is a correct interpretation of what I’m trying to say..!

But I also suspected your “egregious” (man -this from a poster who has written that Jakob’s head literally is “too huge” - and with no clues in his post that this is meant ironically or as a kind of sarcasm..!). So let me clarify a little:

When I write that Jakob has “no talent” I just choose to use his own general words about himself (and not the even stronger language f.ex Narve Gilje Nordås uses about himself: “totally without talent”) -this has to be read contextually: Of course Jakob (and Narve) are extremely talented, also in the 800m and 10000m, and of course they both know this as well. And of course young Ingebrigtsen is extremely knowledgeable in what he is doing / that segment of the sport. But my point is this: Jakob’s got limited insight in his own capabilities in the 10k, half and full marathon, because he lacks experience (and my old wisdom; ha, ha) in these events. He has probably never even done a fast long run in training, and his road run experience (f.ex his 27.53 in the 10k -“Hytteplanmila”) doesn’t say a thing. Even his European Xc win (10 k in a hilly course) doesn’t tell us (or him) anything we didn’t already know: that he will be hard to beat in a 10000m for almost everybody…

We shouldn’t disrespect Jakob Ingebrigtsen -he is a sensational talent (as a totally, not -restricted to- physicality). And to say Jakob could run fast in the 800m and the 10k is disrespect (with “fast” I of course mean WR kind of fast), because it would be sensational if he could match Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Aregawi, Kejelcha, Barega and so on in the 10000m (and above). And anticipating a FAST 10000m from Jakob is disrespect -it would be a sensation if this runner (who greets us with so many sensations) could do something so sensational..!

Regarding Karsten Warholm -I’ve got the out most respect for him as well. (Think he is going to crush in both the flat 400m and hurdles). But I think he is as inexperienced and deluded in the 800m (as his Norwegian colleague is in the long runs) -his pointing on his own pr’s in the 600m as a kid id somewhat hilarious (he would have been owned by 100-200 Norwegian girls at the same age!). But have a look on the thread about Kerley’s 800m capabilities (very poor!), and what I say about him and Warholm there…

And here comes my respect for the 400m hurdles: I think a Harald Schmid type hurdler in the future could get the WR in the 800m. But Karsten Warholm is not a Harald Schmid type. Karsten is too fast. The same is to be said about Raj Benjamin!