The what could Jakob and Faith run for every distance 400-marathon thread

Jakob is doped to the gills. He has no speed reserve but drugs allow him to maintain such a high percentage.

Earth calling Ventolin…

Probably wrong about Jakob’s marathon. Anyone who can run 26:24 can probably run 2:06xx..

Of course Tadese was an exception, with 26:37 and 2:08.

Probably wrong about Jakob’s 400m. I am thinking he is more like 49.2.

Probably wrong about Jakob’s 800m. I am thinking 1:45.7.

Now of course your guesses are as good as mine.

this is good and all but come on i think it's pretty obvious jakob has WAY WAY more than 3:27 high in him. I'm not saying he's running 3:25.5 this year but I'd honestly be pretty stunned if he didn't break 3:27 in the next 2 months. Strength is otherworldly and even better than when he was 3 years younger running 3:28 in a championship final easing up at the line. I also feel as though he may be a touch slower than 48.6. Faith's looks pretty good although I think she too will lower her WR in the 1500 again this summer.

So funny these Jakob haters. They attach EPO as a possibility when everyone knows Kipyegn and Kenya (and rest of E africa) are the epicenter of EPO. 100s of E African EPO busts. 0 Norwegian. How dumb can you be?

You may be close with your estimates from 400m in one's early twenties and 10000m to Marathon near age 30. I'm interested in an athlete's range in a week. What is an athlete capable of in one Olympic game or one World Championship. Eg. I don't believe today Faith K is capable of sub-2:29 1000m.

We’ve butted heads on this already this week. I think it’s kinda crazy to think someone who just ran 3:49.11 with the last 1000 in 2:31.3 isn’t capable of 2.5 seconds faster in a 1000. She ran 2:29.15 in her first race of 2020. She ran the last 800 of the Rio 1500 in 1:57-mid easing up at the line and splitting 56.8(!) from 800 to 1200. I don’t think her training focus has drastically changed since then, I just think she’s gotten better.

All these times are what I think they could run NOW.

Yeah I am sort of like Ventolin, just a smidgeon calmer I hope.

I think anyone running 26:24 can run faster than 2:09:45 with a just a little bit of specific training. I think Jakob can run 2:06 or faster eventually. I’m not sure if Jakob’s ever even run 20 miles continuously and it’s hard to predict how much that would affect him; he might start conservatively and still find it challenging beyond 20 miles.

The marathon estimates are kind of crapshoots and totally meaningless beyond a thought experiment.

Come on, man. Anyone running 7:54.1 for 2 miles very well MIGHT be doped to the gills. In any case, it is hard to comprehend running his 1500-3k times on limited 800 speed.

Both G Dibaba and Hassan ran 2:18 marathons in their first attempts and supposedly Hassan did no special training.

I have a hard believing that Faith would be 3 minutes slower than both of them.

Hassan did do some specific training. From what I understand she did a mix of marathon training and track work, sort of with one foot in the marathon and one still on the track. That could make a big difference.

With a few months of marathon specific long runs that 2:21 becomes a 2:18.

That’s my thinking anyway.

I think Jakobs 10k is more about 26:40, even though I agree he can crack 12:40. A lot of good 5k guys can’t produce the same caliber performance over 10k especially when you factor in Jakob’s extraordinary 1500m/5k ability.

I think a lot of athletes have “endurance ceilings”, meaning they have a longest event they can hold the same level of competitiveness at. Look at all the 800m runners who can’t produce a good mile or the half marathoners who struggle with the marathon

My guess for Jakobs line of best fit:

800m-1:45 (if he sharpened for it)

1500m-3:26.9-3:27.5 (realistically El G, Lagat we’re 1:43 guys and it’s hard to go low 3:26 without that)

3k- 7:19

2-mile- 7:54

5K- 12:39 (I don’t think he’s quite strong enough for the 5k record and I think people forget how strong this record is. Komen only ran 12:39 off 7:20 and I think if he was in a modern Monaco 1500m situation he would have a similar line of best fit to Jakob, 3:27-7:20-12:39)

10k- 26:40 (Most runners who are good at the 5k in part due to 1500m ability will find the 10k a tough cookie to crack)

Half-Marathon/Marathon-Hard to say but there’s a difference between having lactate results say you could run one thing in a half marathon and actually being able to hold that speed for a half marathon. A 1500m/5k guy will always register a little better half marathon ability in reps than what they can actually do all in one go. Jakob’s a big guy and I’m not sure he’ll be better than Mo at these distances. Maybe 59:30

No way Fisher finishes 7sec ahead of Jakob. Jakob easily under 26.30 even if it's not his best event at the moment.

Gressier (3:33/13:08/27:20 PBs) ran sub 1h debut in the half on a challenging course with no specific training and averaging 85 miles a week. Jakob is a lot faster than 59:30.

I will only comment on Jakob and not on the times where I agree (or where I have no idea):

400m: 48

800m: 1:44.5

1500m: 3:25.5

mile: 3:42

2000m: 4:43

5000m: 12:34

10,000m: 26:15

HM: 57:50

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400m and 800m: Jakob´s speed is underestimated by most posters on these pages.

1500m and mile: His great speed AND superior strenght (aerobic capacity) makes it possibly in a race under good conditions this year.

2000m : He was reportedly good for a faster time than 4:50 already when he ran in the IMPOSSIBLE GAMES 3 years ago. And his 7:54 2 miles indicates he can break this WR.

5000m and 10,000m: I think he is as competitive in these longer distances as in the 2 mile or at least very close.

HM: I know I will offend some people when I state that I consider Jakob as on the same level as Jacob Kiplimo on this distance. In the 3000m, 5000m and 10,000m I consider Jakob superior to Kiplimo.

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It will be fun to see if some of the predictions will be tested soon.

I don´t think he will break the WR this evening in Oslo but he might surpass your prediction for the 1500m.

If it is true that the light is set for 3:29 he will possibly try to finish fast the last 600-700m to break 3:27.

3.27 high is too pessimistic given that he ran 3.28 low in a championship race and that was 2 years ago.

I think he his pretty much as good in the half as in the 10k. Not much difference between those 2 events.

Marathon : 2h09 whould be shocking imo. Crippa ran a 2h08.57 debut vommitting in the last kms. 2h05-2h06 is already a very bad time for a sub 26:30/58 guy. I think it would not be worse than that even if he gets in trouble towards the end.

“Die another day.”

Interestingly, JWH, when I plug in Jakob’s recent 1500m and 2 mile in something called Stats Gangsta’s Running Calculator, this is what I get, for what it is worth.

12.18

24.17

49.56

1:45.26

2:14.07

3:44.34

7:19.57

12:42.05

26:44.98

59:32.67

2:04:56.97

Who knows?

I think it looks about right except I’d say faster on the half marathon. Agree that he’d need some marathon specific stuff for the full, but I think he’d do just fine hammering 13.1. Would guess 58-flat.