Parker Valby is going to smoke Katelyn Tuohy in the NCAA 5000

It is sad to realize that this is probably a German Fernandez type of situation. I really like her as a runner and her front running style. If you can't stay healthy, you can't train hard enough to be a successful pro. I hope she can find the secret to long-term health. It is still sad to think of what German might have done and that was with all of Nike's resources trying to coax him to health.

You don't.

Conference championships used to give automatic berths at NCAAs, but that system was dropped a while ago.

"Help Desk" had a nice summary in another thread:

1) The qualifiers for NCAA regionals are selected for each region based strictly on time.

The qualifiers are the top 48 declared times from each region.

2) Once someone gets to the regional meet the path to Nationals is strictly elimination based.

If you want the current list per region go to TFRRS.

You can see the lists

here

I agree with exactly 50% of this. Touhy is miles ahead of Valby “time” wise. Valby is obviously the more talented kid. what she’s doing on such minimal and inconsistent training is crazy. If she were able to execute consistent, injury free training, she’d be smashing the collegiate 5000 record.

The ability to train and race hard AND stay healthy is a real factor and a huge asset, that she appears to be lacking, but her endurance physiology is off the charts compared to Touhy.

I admire both of these athletes. Touhy is a slow twitcher who’ll need to move up in distance post-collegiality to be competitive on the world scene. Valby, if she can even make it to a post collegiate career—and stay healthy, could be a world class 5000 runner.

Sorry if my response above came off as snotty. I meant to say that if you don't understand the rules, that's because they are confusing, and have changed from what they used to be.

If you want more details, you can check out the thread from a few weeks ago on "How to qualify for First Rounds/Region Prelims."

What race has Valby run that makes you believe she has better top-end speed than Tuohy?

It’s the VO2. Low 15 minute 5ks on virtually no running. Cross training is great, but it’s not running volume. She’s performing nearly as well as Touhy without training.

The German Fernandez comparison is a good one, but I hope it works out for her.

Amen to that. God bless Valby.

But this still does not explain the issue of top end speed needed to be competitive as a pro. The fastest we have seen Valby run a 1600, which was a DMR split, was 4:35. Tuohy, on the other hand has run a 4:23 DMR split along with a 4:24 collegiate record for indoor mile.

Many posters on here think Tuohy doesn’t have enough top end speed. I think the jury is still out on that. But getting back to Valby, if she is 12 seconds slower than Tuohy over 1600, how on earth would she be the better prospect in the 5000? Make it make sense.

She's talented but it's not true that she doesn't train. Have you seen any of the interviews about her routine? Her 'easy days' are 2 hours a day, 70-80 minutes on the elliptical and double with a 40 minute swim.

Obviously 15:30 is a good time, but it's nothing special even without many workouts. I know someone who was often injured, did literally 2 workouts in the 2 weeks before a race (a slow tempo (MP effort) and a light VO2 workout) and ended up running in the very low 14:0x range due to talent and residual fitness.

Is there a list somewhere of which teams are in which regional? Is it done by conference (i.e., the entire SEC in the East and the entire Pac-12 in the West) or is it on a team-by-team basis (i.e., the Big 10 could send Penn State to the East and Nebraska to the West)?

“Talent” encompasses a lot more than the VO2 max you mention in a later post. Certainly the ability to stay healthy and handle a full training load is a talent needed to be a world class runner. While I understand and somewhat agree with your point, I think it unfair to say Valby is “obviously more talented”. Both are extremely talented, just in different ways.

Team-by-team. Check tfrrs performance lists.

Not sure if TFRRS breaks it down that way but you can see who the top 48 athletes are in each event broken down by east and west.

Tuohy broke 5:00 in the mile as a seventh grader off of just playing soccer so I’d say she is very talented. Her knee injury in high school was a setback but she fought her way back. To quote the Brojos “talent never goes away”.

Ohhhhh man. I've got a huge Valbymania hangover after last night's 5000. 😍

There are also lists of which schools are going to which conference:

Here is the East list, and here is the West list.

The bolded part above is patently false.