Jedsdead wrote:
a slow race gives a team like NM a huge advantage.
Who knows though...this will be a good one!!
You’re right. If the pace is slow, New Mexico has a massive advantage. Luckily, it will not be.
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FastTuohy wrote:
the superior athlete will show up wrote:
Another possibility, if the race is ‘slowish’ up until about the 14-15 min mark, would be maybe Coach Smith sends out a ‘decoy’ to take it out hard from there, in order to pull in Tuohy and Chimiel and Valby (though he’s not worried so much about Valby’s placing) in order to pull them over the edge so that Roe and Cook can clean-up at the end.
and who might that be? Besides their top 3 who do they have that could do that? And then less 1 of their top 3 what do they have? Sounds like that would set things up for NM.
The idea would be a decoy that he doesn’t care whether they score. New Mexico has a deep team, so maybe they could try something like that too. Just a thought.
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FastTuohy wrote:
"Now at regionals, some fans noticed Tuohy grabbed her left hamstring mid-race. How much of an issue is that? Well my colleague Jonathan Gault asked NC State coach Laurie Henes about Tuohy’s hamstring on Tuesday, and she told him they “don’t anticipate any issues at NCAAs.”
“It was a very minor issue,” Henes said. “She was able to finish the race well, cool down, and she’s been practicing.”
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2022/11/katelyn-tuohy-vs-parker-valby-who-has-the-edge-in-gigantic-ncaa-xc-showdown/
McCabe will not make the first move. I don't think Kemboi has it to try to separate from the other anticipated leaders. I agree with vmg the right place for Valby to put the pressure on is at 3K but I suspect she may be forcing the pace some ahead of that.Yes, thanks for posting. I am actually really surprised that such a big deal was made about this...Nice to hear the confirmation.
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TuohyFan wrote:
Jedsdead wrote:
a slow race gives a team like NM a huge advantage.
Who knows though...this will be a good one!!
You’re right. If the pace is slow, New Mexico has a massive advantage. Luckily, it will not be.
That further makes the case someone else (e.g., Tuohy) is going to have to set the pace, rather than Valby.
Valby should be relaxing on auto-pilot until around the 16min mark, but keeping an eye out for anyone trying to break away before that.
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TuohyFan wrote:
Totally agree that McCabe won’t make the first move (I mentioned a few posts ago that it sounds like she’s planning to striker earlier than normal though).
You said she said at 800m to go, which is too late in the race.
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Jedsdead wrote:
Yes, thanks for posting. I am actually really surprised that such a big deal was made about this...Nice to hear the confirmation.
I’m not surprised. Tuohy did a weird spin move after the race to try and shake out the tweak. There is too much adrenaline at that point to know where the injury is at, but the guy that posted the pictures (from his wife’s cell phone) stated his wife said she was injured.
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the superior athlete will show up wrote:
TuohyFan wrote:
Totally agree that McCabe won’t make the first move (I mentioned a few posts ago that it sounds like she’s planning to striker earlier than normal though).
You said she said at 800m to go, which is too late in the race.
Well, McCabe is typically known for her kick. That typically occurs with about 100-200m to go. Based on her interview, it sounds like she’s planning on a move far before that, possibly around 800m to go.
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the superior athlete will show up wrote:
Jedsdead wrote:
Yes, thanks for posting. I am actually really surprised that such a big deal was made about this...Nice to hear the confirmation.
I’m not surprised. Tuohy did a weird spin move after the race to try and shake out the tweak. There is too much adrenaline at that point to know where the injury is at, but the guy that posted the pictures (from his wife’s cell phone) stated his wife said she was injured.
I still swear all it could have really been is her reaching down to scratch at a mosquito bite.
Either way, the great news is, as I’ve said before, she’s just fine.
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TuohyFan wrote:
the superior athlete will show up wrote:
You said she said at 800m to go, which is too late in the race.
Well, McCabe is typically known for her kick. That typically occurs with about 100-200m to go. Based on her interview, it sounds like she’s planning on a move far before that, possibly around 800m to go.
Well, I’m not sure where the (tree on right of course before hill drop) is exactly…maybe(?) 1100m from finish.
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TuohyFan wrote:
vmg wrote:
Valby v Tuohy, Tuohy v Valby (note eye roll).
IMO, PV will not be able to run away from a healthy KT, and will not be able to get far enough away from CMc or MC that they can’t close on the hills the second time around. Will be fun to watch.
I love the comment they make at the end about Chelangat’s involvement in any discussions while keying off of Tuohy.
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the superior athlete will show up wrote:
Another possibility, if the race is ‘slowish’ up until about the 14-15 min mark, would be maybe Coach Smith sends out a ‘decoy’ to take it out hard from there, in order to pull in Tuohy and Chimiel and Valby (though he’s not worried so much about Valby’s placing) in order to pull them over the edge so that Roe and Cook can clean-up at the end.
Who would be the decoy?
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Talkin’ about the dark horses. Gordon’s pick was Elise Stearns, who he has ranked #11 being a possible sleeper contender!
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He said Tuohy won't be top 3.
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“Right about 4.4km to 4.6km mark…”
Jamboree move(s) started at about ~3.5K and that race had no PV. She cannot afford to make this about who is faster running those hills — unless she enters that last 2K w a substantial lead. Hence, an earlier move is likely to happen.
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vmg wrote:
“Right about 4.4km to 4.6km mark…”
Jamboree move(s) started at about ~3.5K and that race had no PV. She cannot afford to make this about who is faster running those hills — unless she enters that last 2K w a substantial lead. Hence, an earlier move is likely to happen.
Oh I agree. I think Valby’s gonna go hard right from the gun, literally no doubt in my mind, from start to finish.
It’s TUOHY that will be going at about 4.4km to 4.6km in a blistering pace at that point.
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FastTuohy wrote:
the superior athlete will show up wrote:
Another possibility, if the race is ‘slowish’ up until about the 14-15 min mark, would be maybe Coach Smith sends out a ‘decoy’ to take it out hard from there, in order to pull in Tuohy and Chimiel and Valby (though he’s not worried so much about Valby’s placing) in order to pull them over the edge so that Roe and Cook can clean-up at the end.
and who might that be? Besides their top 3 who do they have that could do that? And then less 1 of their top 3 what do they have? Sounds like that would set things up for NM.
Billah Jepkirui might be a very good ‘decoy’; Jepkirui could still likely hold on for a decent placing even if she dies in the process.
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Blank231 wrote:
Who would be the decoy?
Billah Jepkirui.
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TuohyFan wrote:
I still swear all it could have really been is her reaching down to scratch at a mosquito bite.
Either way, the great news is, as I’ve said before, she’s just fine.
The wife of the guy that posted the pictures heard what she said, and saw her actions, which had nothing to do with a mosquito bite.
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