OFFICIAL 2022 WOMENS Individual NCAA D1 XC Championships Predictions

Good list...I have all the same (some different places) except I put Markezich in the top 10 instead of Stearns. But Stearns is solid.

I know there was discussion about the Team race playing into the top 10 list, I don't think this is the case. The top 10 are all gunning for the best placement they can get...If Tuohy, Chmiel, Mercy, or Roe are near the front in the last 2 km, they are going for the win.

Not sure if the previous fastest 6k runner wom the title that year but regardless. Don't count Valby out of the title. Honestly she barely lost a 5k title with limited running (lots of cross training obviously but there was downtime due to injury) but it's she's been able to train more efficiently which it seems like it. So I got valby winning by at least 10 seconds.

Who do you have in 2-10?

I agree those are basically the main players. I tend to put less emphasis on the September races, and often conference/regional races if they are tactical. Also less certain about the OSU runners and McCabe as they really haven't been in a fast race, so going more on past fitness of Roe and how others did vs her. So my guess:

1 Tuohy - has shown strength on hills/easily separated from anyone she has raced
2 Valby - tough call w times and wins - uncertain what will happen on hills if fast pace
3 Chelangat - lost head to head w Valby
4 Chmiel - has also separated from others she raced incl Markezich ACC/Nuttycombe
5 McCabe - beat Roe, but in fairly slow kicker type race
6 Roe - fairly slow races, more based on prior history
7 Jepkuri - won the Weiss Crocket at OSU - past times suggest talent, more gut feel here
8 Markezich - coming on strong, took ACC and GL out pretty fast
9 Hertenstein - ignoring Mountain result, based on Nuttycombe and season progression
10 Mitchell - prior 2 seem coming on stronger after Nuttycombe

next would be Stearns, Olemomoi, Cook, Venters, Tynismaa

I also have a feeling ND will be on podium.

I spent a great deal of time going over this, and Stearns ended up on there because she was one of the few that had races amongst several of the top, on two different occasions, as well as done quite well in them. Kemboi was another one of those. And then Kemboi defeated Stearns more recently, so they’re really showing strong.

Certainly didn’t count Valby out. She’s right there.

Always enjoy your lists and reasonings! Sounds like Jedsdead has a similar thought as you with Markezich.

Another way to compare Tuohy and Valby in recent races is to compare them to the top FSU runners (Van den Berg and Churchill), at the ACC Championships for Tuohy and the South Regionals for Valby. At the ACC Championships, Tuohy beat Van den Berg by 52 seconds and Churchill by 1 minute and 12 seconds). At the South Regionals, Valby beat Van den Berg by 30 seconds and Churchill by 42 seconds).

So that metric shows that Tuohy is better than Valby by about 20-25 seconds.

I like the list. I would rate McCabe 3rd but those spots are dead even. Valby is one or two. She could blow away the field or get oukicked again. Beats me.

Too many biases by the same players here, with blinders on.

my 2 cents is you don't know how hard everyone was going. I suspect Valby (and the AL ladies) had more. But as you get back in the field runners probably closer to what they truly have. Especially for teams trying to get to Nationals. I could say Valby beat Van Camp by 40 and Tuohy only beat her by 20.....but Tuohy probably had more at Nuttycombe.

Valby will win.

Olivia Howell will be in the top 10.

Tuohy is on another level than anyone, including Valby. Based on the comparison to the FSU runners that I cited above, I predict Tuohy wins and beats Valby by at least 15-20 seconds. Additionally, I think Tuohy can handle a tough/hilly course like Stillwater much better than Valby. And I think Chmiel is also in the top 5, probably 2nd or 3rd. She has been only around 10 seconds behind Tuohy the last 3 races. Those two low sticks (Tuohy and Chmiel) are a big advantage over New Mexico, and lead to NC State repeating as team champions.

McCabe is the only true kicker in the lead group, if she can hang til the last hill, she will win.

Valby will be surprised that she can't break from the leaders through 5k.

Tuohy will try her move over last 2 hills.

Watch out for Chmiel, Tynnismaa, and Dudek all improving each meet as they return from injury. Cook also a threat even as hype has dropped.

This will be a great race as Valby will drive the pace through 5k and the hills in last k will separate men from boys. Weather can also be a factor. So...

McCabe, Tuohy, Roe, Cook, Chelangat, Chmiel, Tynismaa, Dudek, Valby

NC State wins by only a point or two over both NM and OSU. Rauber and Quarzo perform well in cold and on hills to do just enough on back end to save Wolfpack.

I have trouble placing Valby. Last year after regionals in outdoor no one had her as a serious contender. Then she shows up at the final and pressures the whole field. This year she ran on flat, fast courses. But then again she had the strength to attack early on three courses in a row. I thought the most impressive run this year was probably Tuohy at ACC. But I have yet to see Valby show any fatigue or visible signs of strain or effort since xc last year. Will be interesting.

yes, she is certainly one of the X-factors this race....I wouldn't be surprised if she won the race, or came in 10th. SHe will make it interesting.

your contribution to the conversation is greatly appreciated...you are correct, people should change their predictions because you don't agree with them.

Very interesting. I wasn’t aware of this scenario!