This thread was originally titled, "Incredible development in the $612,000 Transcon Goodge run, currently ongoing" but the new title is more descriptive. The description of the run is here.
No, too much is off about it. We saw quite a lot of the live, and he was really shuffling along. And 3.4 miles for the first 50 minutes. The rest of the day is fine, and he was posting roughly 2:10-2:30 for the 10 mile sequences. This was 1:50.
Today he's done 4.76 miles in 70 mins - that's where he's at, and where is has been for 5 days.
Yeah, the chart shows a ton of hills over that section. In 1km alone it would have 3-4 hills. They're fluctuating between 6-6:30ish per km pace to 9:00 to 10:00 every .1 km.
30.1 miles in 11 hours so far, on a break now. Tough to see... and a 2.4 mile jump again in a 10 minute spell, akin to yesterday. We shall see if the Strava cadence wipes out again, and HR dives. If there's a ledge on the bus which he's very occasionally riding it's poor form; despite him currently being on a death march, no excuse for that.
They may be so invested in this that they're gonna have to scrape him off the course. But as that projection sours to 60 days and beyond, the question will hover, what to do?
On mostly flat roads I am normally around 180 cadence. On a run with 4500 feet of climb over 5 miles up to a peak, I hovered between 160-170. Anecdotal I know, but no reason for cadence to drop this much on such a slight incline. And coupled with the magical heart rate drop it is very suspicious to say the least
Interestingly there were no sub 100 SPM sections on days 1 or 2, but on day 3 in the morning during the hilly section with the headwind there was.
I'd be interested to see but they always appear to be on uphill sections. Could it be an issues with using poles? Seems a little quick for poles though.
Seems to be only short sections which is weird. Given they are filming it I will be patiently waiting for their episode and I am sure people can track down to see if there is any footage of him in those weird sections.
Mile 40 sticks out like a sore thumb - 10min pace at 90spm uphill. However HR is realistic so perhaps watch is counting every other step. Same low cadence mile marks 43.5-45, except no corresponding HR increase.
I also don't like the look of miles 25-30, all sub-10 uphill. At 26.0, HR drops way down while pace stays the same. And he does his fastest 5k from 26-29. this was where you saw a big jump right? After the stop at 30.1, we see good HR data at the 10:30 paces we are used to. Methinks something is rotten in the state of Arizona...
Hi all,here's an update on another thread about the British runner William Goodge doing Transcon at the moment and some worrying irregularities.Namely that he runs at 150-170bpm in the first two days of his multidayers, colla...
And re route planning, tomorrows map is on crew chief's Instagram.
By avoiding the <5mile Peavine rail trail (such perfectly packed dirt that there's even a recumbent biker using it in a Streetview shot) they are voluntarily adding 2.5miles and 400ft of up+down to the route. This courtesy of Google's suggested route through the area, not some secret shortcut.
Perhaps they don't dare venture more than a stone's throw from the RV, I wonder why...
Mile 40 sticks out like a sore thumb - 10min pace at 90spm uphill. However HR is realistic so perhaps watch is counting every other step. Same low cadence mile marks 43.5-45, except no corresponding HR increase.
I also don't like the look of miles 25-30, all sub-10 uphill. At 26.0, HR drops way down while pace stays the same. And he does his fastest 5k from 26-29. this was where you saw a big jump right? After the stop at 30.1, we see good HR data at the 10:30 paces we are used to. Methinks something is rotten in the state of Arizona...
Thank you very much for your excellent analysis. Yes, I observed closely yesterday and their excuses about added cloud cover interfering with the satellite don't ring true.
This is his mileage for the two hours before and a bit after that problem, and yes, it is right around mile 26.
So, yes, it's that 2.36 mile jump in 10 minutes that I really hate. There is precious little explanation for the blob just leaping down the road like that. All most strange. And then we check his Strava and there's chaos with both his heart and cadence flatlining. Mobile phone images of the cadence graphs are much prettier and modern than laptops and yesterdays image [that someone sent me completely unprompted as to my concerns] had a complete cadence black out around the time of the 3-8 mile surge. And I have now observed yesterday on a phone and his cadence completely collapses on day 3 and is most odd from then on.
And yes, for someone hobbling on crutches with a daily rate of nearly 13 minute miles, it is incredibly unlikely for them to fire off a 48 minute 5 mile stretch - absolute world class level for sure. Especially if still on the poles. Are you sure the splits for 41-45 and 46 to 50 are right, frothrippah? They seem very high - I am seeing more like 72s not 92.
These are just two times I've caught something terribly off - but I certainly didn't follow the tracker like the last two days, although I remember thinking how quick the blob was jumping and was pretty surprised at some of the speeds, but it was so early in the piece.
I was very surprised indeed they still wanted 60s after the reboot, so I kept a much closer watch, and boom the big jump early. Then yesterday, glacial progress all day before a jolt. Annoying.
Re: Ultrarunningkid's remark about filming it: they only film parts - maybe 10 minutes an hour for footage.
Does anyone know if these RVs have flip-out jump-seats on the side? Paul appears to be sitting on one in the latest group pic and it looks like the outline of another next to him. But I'm really not sure. But we know the RV is usually close by. If he can literally flip down a seat every now and again, it's alluring.
Anyway, all eyes on him now. He will start getting swamped with concerns with any more of these jolts. There are a lot of mistruths coming out from the camp about how well he's doing, stuff like, "flying up these hills" etc. And yet when in the middle of yesterday he fires off a 48 minute 5 miles, we get no footage and aren't told about it.
I also found it offensive that in his speech about canning the record attempt he said, "we did really well last night, the pace was great..." The pace was 30 miles in 10 hours.
Otherwise, a pretty terrible effort from him really. As we suspected 60 miles was also dreamland. 50s will start becoming troublesome now. When will the US Govt. want their boy back?
And dear old Rob, the chief, is now in way over his head, with both his crew boys jumping ship [Mindo bailed before the start]. Rob's a nice guy, but only 25, and comes close to last in quite a few of the ultras he's tried. He left me a voicemail yesterday asking my advice on the sort of training you should do for this event... Er, bit late for that, mate!
Thanks, no worries, 72 is more than enough to tell us that 48 is way beyond him in his current state. It was clearly and basically a steady walk all day. They would have mentionned if he had a magic spell in the middle when he suddenly turned from PJ into PK.
Otherwise, a pretty terrible effort from him really. As we suspected 60 miles was also dreamland. 50s will start becoming troublesome now. When will the US Govt. want their boy back?
And dear old Rob, the chief, is now in way over his head, with both his crew boys jumping ship [Mindo bailed before the start]. Rob's a nice guy, but only 25, and comes close to last in quite a few of the ultras he's tried. He left me a voicemail yesterday asking my advice on the sort of training you should do for this event... Er, bit late for that, mate!
Fun stuff.
Now the daily average has dropped below 60 miles per day and it will drop some more. There is nothing to see her. Young overconfident runner thinks that 75 miles per day is no problem. Now he learns it the hard way. A few more years of running and a couple of multidays before this would have helped. Sub 60 days is already out of the question. I suspect that he will drop because of injuries in the next couple of days.
You just can't force these long days, you just can't.
PS: I would have posted much more here but I was banned for starting a separate tread on this.
They are asking for a PT in the Prescott area today. If it was just for help with stretching etc they would have mentioned that. Probably something serious. Poor guy in over his head, I really feel for him.
Well, I now realise that the level of debate in that thread is not particularly high. It doesn't seem to invlove many that know anything about ultramarathons.
You are surprised, given the inflammatory nature of the thread title? Who did you think it would attract?
She's got good single day ultramarathon pedigree, but has said she's concentrating on helping others and she coaches Vriko Kwok. Her heart didn't seem in it.
It's been rumoured none of the others wanted to do 6 days but were pressured into it, and they're getting a decent pay.
Now the daily average has dropped below 60 miles per day and it will drop some more. There is nothing to see her. Young overconfident runner thinks that 75 miles per day is no problem. Now he learns it the hard way. A few more years of running and a couple of multidays before this would have helped. Sub 60 days is already out of the question. I suspect that he will drop because of injuries in the next couple of days.
You just can't force these long days, you just can't.
PS: I would have posted much more here but I was banned for starting a separate tread on this.
Did you get any attempted justification for the ban. It seems outrageous to me.
They are asking for a PT in the Prescott area today. If it was just for help with stretching etc they would have mentioned that. Probably something serious. Poor guy in over his head, I really feel for him.
This sums up their approach. If you google this the first hit is, "top 10 PTs in Prescott, AZ." I randomly clicked on the 3rd and they look good.
I mean seriously - how do you get a PT in a small US city of 45k souls? Call them up, or put an SOS on your Insta hoping they'll see it?
Otherwise, a pretty terrible effort from him really. As we suspected 60 miles was also dreamland. 50s will start becoming troublesome now. When will the US Govt. want their boy back?
And dear old Rob, the chief, is now in way over his head, with both his crew boys jumping ship [Mindo bailed before the start]. Rob's a nice guy, but only 25, and comes close to last in quite a few of the ultras he's tried. He left me a voicemail yesterday asking my advice on the sort of training you should do for this event... Er, bit late for that, mate!
Fun stuff.
Now the daily average has dropped below 60 miles per day and it will drop some more. There is nothing to see her. Young overconfident runner thinks that 75 miles per day is no problem. Now he learns it the hard way. A few more years of running and a couple of multidays before this would have helped. Sub 60 days is already out of the question. I suspect that he will drop because of injuries in the next couple of days.
You just can't force these long days, you just can't.
PS: I would have posted much more here but I was banned for starting a separate tread on this.
Welcome back! Hope you can make up for lost time with your passion and verve.
A brief summary of today. I've been on the road for pretty much all of it, so no watching the odometer like a hawk, but literally in the last 35 mins he's chalked 5 miles. So very odd.
I logged him at 1138 for 28.73 with it having been at 25.7 not so long earlier, and then 10 mins later at 1148 he's at 30.16. It is simply not possible for him to go 1.43 in 10 mins, his mark is 0.8 these days. Grrrrr.
It is worrying that I've just sat down in a coffee shop in a train station, first check of the day, and it comes out crooked. Already I think we'll get another day of mad cadence and HR.
I noted to the chief that many are now concerned about micro-riding and to keep that van away from him, and he replied that they do - that he doesn't ever go to the van, but they bring nutrition to him. But that's a mistruth. Strava satellite clearly shows when he goes to the van, which of course involves crossing a main road twice, with those added risks of getting hit. A senior figure has sent me 16 images of a big road cross and he sometimes covers up to half a mile on the van's side of the road... The guy says he went over to the van over 20 times in the 50 miles yesterday, and that his math have him doing an extra 31 miles for the trip, just crossing the road to the van.
And as I type, his next 10 minute tranche is in. It was 30.16 1148 [my time]. What do you think it is now?
32.58.
I feel sick. That's around 7 miles in the last 40 minutes, and nearly 4 miles in 20.