“Roe has been holding back a bit this whole season“
As a race strategy, she tends to hang back a bit. Not sure that’s part of a larger season-long approach.
Given her apparent (demonstrated) preference for hanging back a bit, thetiming (situational in terms of both place in the herd and location on the course) of one’s move is all-important — particularly in a championship race against elite competition. Here’s where her familiarity with the course comes into play as an advantage — she knows what it takes for her to run a given split over a given section of the course.
“Roe has been holding back a bit this whole season“
As a race strategy, she tends to hang back a bit. Not sure that’s part of a larger season-long approach.
Given her apparent (demonstrated) preference for hanging back a bit, thetiming (situational in terms of both place in the herd and location on the course) of one’s move is all-important — particularly in a championship race against elite competition. Here’s where her familiarity with the course comes into play as an advantage — she knows what it takes for her to run a given split over a given section of the course.
Absolutely. That’s why the superior athlete will show up‘s post #278 on page 14 cracked me up, as they literally showed where they feel Roe will make her move.
Thanks for sharing! They’re picking Valby. With the thoughts:
“She might have to run away with it. She has to get away from Tuohy with enough space to withstand a kick. She might have to kick a mile out.”
I think “a mile out” is way too soon. Valby should follow the leader, and not be gapped, up until about 4min before the finish line. It will be a very hard 4min after that, but it can’t be all-out. The effort over that four minutes will have to be metered.
Thanks for sharing! They’re picking Valby. With the thoughts:
“She might have to run away with it. She has to get away from Tuohy with enough space to withstand a kick. She might have to kick a mile out.”
I think “a mile out” is way too soon. Valby should follow the leader, and not be gapped, up until about 4min before the finish line. It will be a very hard 4min after that, but it can’t be all-out. The effort over that four minutes will have to be metered.
Actually, that’s ironically where I think Tuohy will do it. Right about 4.4km to 4.6km mark and then steadily move ahead. Like a poster said earlier in this thread, it appears Tuohy’s been practicing this move all year long, doing that in every race all season, all conditions and regardless of the course.
“Roe has been holding back a bit this whole season“
As a race strategy, she tends to hang back a bit. Not sure that’s part of a larger season-long approach.
Given her apparent (demonstrated) preference for hanging back a bit, thetiming (situational in terms of both place in the herd and location on the course) of one’s move is all-important — particularly in a championship race against elite competition. Here’s where her familiarity with the course comes into play as an advantage — she knows what it takes for her to run a given split over a given section of the course.
Absolutely. That’s why the superior athlete will show up‘s post #278 on page 14 cracked me up, as they literally showed where they feel Roe will make her move.
I think that clip is when the pack of 4-5 go (if they each have been stalking each other up to that point) will go, but it will still have to be a ‘metered’ move. That image was clipped about 16min into a ~20:25 race effort. It precedes a hill drop, followed by climbs. In the video clip after that drop (around 15:36 into the video, which started about 11sec before the start gun) you can hear Taylor Roe’s coach say (I think) “Bide your time, Taylor! Bide your time!” Orton and her are going hard, but it’s still too soon, and he doesn’t want her to go over the edge:
Touhy may be in that pack of 4-5 leaders at the 16min mark, but maybe not due to injury.
Another scenario is that McCabe or Kemboi decide to go earlier, at a mile out (around thr 15min mark). I would advise Valby to be careful and follow, because that is too soon to be going all-out, unless the pack were ‘jogging’ up to that point (which might happen).
Absolutely. That’s why the superior athlete will show up‘s post #278 on page 14 cracked me up, as they literally showed where they feel Roe will make her move.
I think that clip is when the pack of 4-5 go (if they each have been stalking each other up to that point) will go, but it will still have to be a ‘metered’ move. That image was clipped about 16min into a ~20:25 race effort. It precedes a hill drop, followed by climbs. In the video clip after that drop (around 15:36 into the video, which started about 11sec before the start gun) you can hear Taylor Roe’s coach say (I think) “Bide your time, Taylor! Bide your time!” Orton and her are going hard, but it’s still too soon, and he doesn’t want her to go over the edge:
Great stuff, thanks! That does a great job of showing that portion of the race! I think you put a marker there on the timeline in the video about 15:33-15:36ish range that was perfect!
Touhy may be in that pack of 4-5 leaders at the 16min mark, but maybe not due to injury.
Another scenario is that McCabe or Kemboi decide to go earlier, at a mile out (around thr 15min mark). I would advise Valby to be careful and follow, because that is too soon to be going all-out, unless the pack were ‘jogging’ up to that point (which might happen).
"Now at regionals, some fans noticed Tuohy grabbed her left hamstring mid-race. How much of an issue is that? Well my colleague Jonathan Gault asked NC State coach Laurie Henes about Tuohy’s hamstring on Tuesday, and she told him they “don’t anticipate any issues at NCAAs.” “It was a very minor issue,” Henes said. “She was able to finish the race well, cool down, and she’s been practicing.” https://www.letsrun.com/news/2022/11/katelyn-tuohy-vs-parker-valby-who-has-the-edge-in-gigantic-ncaa-xc-showdown/ McCabe will not make the first move. I don't think Kemboi has it to try to separate from the other anticipated leaders. I agree with vmg the right place for Valby to put the pressure on is at 3K but I suspect she may be forcing the pace some ahead of that.
Touhy may be in that pack of 4-5 leaders at the 16min mark, but maybe not due to injury.
Another scenario is that McCabe or Kemboi decide to go earlier, at a mile out (around thr 15min mark). I would advise Valby to be careful and follow, because that is too soon to be going all-out, unless the pack were ‘jogging’ up to that point (which might happen).
Another possibility, if the race is ‘slowish’ up until about the 14-15 min mark, would be maybe Coach Smith sends out a ‘decoy’ to take it out hard from there, in order to pull in Tuohy and Chimiel and Valby (though he’s not worried so much about Valby’s placing) in order to pull them over the edge so that Roe and Cook can clean-up at the end.
Touhy may be in that pack of 4-5 leaders at the 16min mark, but maybe not due to injury.
Another scenario is that McCabe or Kemboi decide to go earlier, at a mile out (around thr 15min mark). I would advise Valby to be careful and follow, because that is too soon to be going all-out, unless the pack were ‘jogging’ up to that point (which might happen).
Another possibility, if the race is ‘slowish’ up until about the 14-15 min mark, would be maybe Coach Smith sends out a ‘decoy’ to take it out hard from there, in order to pull in Tuohy and Chimiel and Valby (though he’s not worried so much about Valby’s placing) in order to pull them over the edge so that Roe and Cook can clean-up at the end.
and who might that be? Besides their top 3 who do they have that could do that? And then less 1 of their top 3 what do they have? Sounds like that would set things up for NM.
Well my colleague Jonathan Gault asked NC State coach Laurie Henes about Tuohy’s hamstring on Tuesday, and she told him they “don’t anticipate any issues at NCAAs.”
A very coach-like statement. Atleast she confirmed it. Was hoping for more detail though.
I think “a mile out” is way too soon. Valby should follow the leader, and not be gapped, up until about 4min before the finish line. It will be a very hard 4min after that, but it can’t be all-out. The effort over that four minutes will have to be metered.
Actually, that’s ironically where I think Tuohy will do it. Right about 4.4km to 4.6km mark and then steadily move ahead. Like a poster said earlier in this thread, it appears Tuohy’s been practicing this move all year long, doing that in every race all season, all conditions and regardless of the course.
Yes she has been tightening the pace a little earlier and then moving with a k, k and a half to go. Based on Valby's races so far, Valby will move earlier.
Touhy may be in that pack of 4-5 leaders at the 16min mark, but maybe not due to injury.
Another scenario is that McCabe or Kemboi decide to go earlier, at a mile out (around thr 15min mark). I would advise Valby to be careful and follow, because that is too soon to be going all-out, unless the pack were ‘jogging’ up to that point (which might happen).
"Now at regionals, some fans noticed Tuohy grabbed her left hamstring mid-race. How much of an issue is that? Well my colleague Jonathan Gault asked NC State coach Laurie Henes about Tuohy’s hamstring on Tuesday, and she told him they “don’t anticipate any issues at NCAAs.” “It was a very minor issue,” Henes said. “She was able to finish the race well, cool down, and she’s been practicing.” https://www.letsrun.com/news/2022/11/katelyn-tuohy-vs-parker-valby-who-has-the-edge-in-gigantic-ncaa-xc-showdown/ McCabe will not make the first move. I don't think Kemboi has it to try to separate from the other anticipated leaders. I agree with vmg the right place for Valby to put the pressure on is at 3K but I suspect she may be forcing the pace some ahead of that.
Thanks for that article link; I was waiting to hear what Gault had heard. Nonetheless, after writing that, Rojo said he was still concerned about Tuohy’s hamstring.
I don’t want to see Valby putting pressure on at 3k. I think Valby should be ready to put her fitness up against Tuohy’s and McCabe’s and Roe’s fitness for a hard 4min race effort, that starts at around the 16min mark (tree on right of course, before hill drop).
I don’t want to see Valby putting pressure on at 3k. I think Valby should be ready to put her fitness up against Tuohy’s and McCabe’s and Roe’s fitness for a hard 4min race effort, that starts at around the 16min mark (tree on right of course, before hill drop).
Touhy may be in that pack of 4-5 leaders at the 16min mark, but maybe not due to injury.
Another scenario is that McCabe or Kemboi decide to go earlier, at a mile out (around thr 15min mark). I would advise Valby to be careful and follow, because that is too soon to be going all-out, unless the pack were ‘jogging’ up to that point (which might happen).
"Now at regionals, some fans noticed Tuohy grabbed her left hamstring mid-race. How much of an issue is that? Well my colleague Jonathan Gault asked NC State coach Laurie Henes about Tuohy’s hamstring on Tuesday, and she told him they “don’t anticipate any issues at NCAAs.” “It was a very minor issue,” Henes said. “She was able to finish the race well, cool down, and she’s been practicing.” https://www.letsrun.com/news/2022/11/katelyn-tuohy-vs-parker-valby-who-has-the-edge-in-gigantic-ncaa-xc-showdown/ McCabe will not make the first move. I don't think Kemboi has it to try to separate from the other anticipated leaders. I agree with vmg the right place for Valby to put the pressure on is at 3K but I suspect she may be forcing the pace some ahead of that.
LOVED the article! Geez, not just one reason that Tuohy is picked, but FIVE!
On a side note: As I mentioned, nothing injury-wise to worry about with Tuohy. Pesky mosquito… (Hey, Henes was so vague, that it could have been just that!).
Totally agree that McCabe won’t make the first move (I mentioned a few posts ago that it sounds like she’s planning to striker earlier than normal though).
Well, if I were a betting man, the one wager I would say is guaranteed is that this race will not be slow. Tuohy and Valby will be at the front, setting a pace as individuals....but even on the team side, a slow race gives a team like NM a huge advantage.