If Kipchoge ran Dubai...

older runner wrote:

real problem here is that several studies have shown that the shoes improve performance by 4.5%. that is about 5 minutes or so. if that is true it has to be clear to everyone that the recent times, while real, are not comparable to times even 2 years ago. what happens now is very unclear. also, it may well be that based on running gait the shoes may help one athelete over another. so common sense dicates taking all these time (like dubai last night) and refrain from thinking that it is training or altitude or ... so i do not know where to rank kipchoge, probably after bekele , geb, kipsang, and kimetto for sure as he would be almost 2-3 minutes slower than each of them.

5 minutes so Kipchoge is really a 2:06 runner.

Complete nonsense.

"could've went"

?????

you realize how dumb you sound, right?!

Discussing the difference between Berlin and Dubai....

older runner wrote:

real problem here is that several studies have shown that the shoes improve performance by 4.5%. ....

Berlin and Dubai differ in several important aspects, but footwear is not amongst them.

yyy wrote:

It would be interesting to look at the statistics here. How many are a one-hit wonder.

Ethiopia is the nation of one hit wonders. Or, perhaps, they are the nation of one hit dopers who run a big time, get a big contract, back of the dope and run 2:08 the rest of their careers. Still, better than American marathoners.

sbeefyk2 wrote:

Ethiopia is the nation of one hit wonders. Or, perhaps, they are the nation of one hit dopers who run a big time, get a big contract, back of the dope and run 2:08 the rest of their careers. Still, better than American marathoners.

Or, perhaps, you're an idiot.

e-d-ot wrote:

sbeefyk2 wrote:

Ethiopia is the nation of one hit wonders. Or, perhaps, they are the nation of one hit dopers who run a big time, get a big contract, back of the dope and run 2:08 the rest of their careers. Still, better than American marathoners.

Or, perhaps, you're an idiot.

Tell you what, if I was a 2:15 US guy right now, I would be on the first plane to Dubai next time, so I could run a time that would actually put me ahead of today's fastest women.

Or , you know, I could just continue as usual, and race maybe once or twice a year, running times that were good if it's 1958.

Everyone seems to agree that there's one shoe that is producing fast times. Well guess what? There's a course that produces fast times, as well!

ukathleticscoach wrote:

What temperature was it?

18 degrees Celsius.

Dubai has many fast time for "no names" because they recruit Ethiopians who are not as heavily recruited as Kenyans by agents or race directors. Ethiopia is strong as Kenya in marathon, The Ethiopians don't get the same spotlight.

Other majors paying fees to athlete to show up and don't risk much to pay for unproven athlete. Dubai has fast time for unknown because they accept all unknown Etiopian athlete who have potential for running fast. Appearance politic not get in the way in Dubai.

Secret African agent wrote:

Dubai has many fast time for "no names" because they recruit Ethiopians who are not as heavily recruited as Kenyans by agents or race directors. Ethiopia is strong as Kenya in marathon, The Ethiopians don't get the same spotlight.

Other majors paying fees to athlete to show up and don't risk much to pay for unproven athlete. Dubai has fast time for unknown because they accept all unknown Etiopian athlete who have potential for running fast. Appearance politic not get in the way in Dubai.

So why do the majority of these one hit wonders run significantly worse or even disappear altogether after Dubai? Do you have a theory for that? Entrance to the testing pool? Earned their money so not as hungry?

One hit wonders could be explained by weak testing there but also getting a bunch of guys before they are even being tested, namely, before they are in the pool for testing. They show their coaches that they are in really good shape and they send them to Dubai, which isn't going to ask any questions. Dubai's also an easy non-stop flight from Addis; I know because that was one of five stops that I took on the way to Pakistan back in the day, Mombasa, Nairobi, Addis, Dubai, Karachi. You can do drugs throughout training and then go off them just long enough before the race not to test positive, or if, as I would not be surprised at all, the fix is in for drugs in one of those emirates, they won't let anyone test positive.

Getaneh Molla 12:59 guy but only 3:45/7:52/28:18 (Boulder)/1:00:34, debuts at 2:03:34

He was on the radar already but not like this at age 25.

His agent, Hussein Makke.

Herpassa Negasa 2:09:14 to 2:03:40

He had 15k-43:02 and 3 2:10s and a 2:09. Next thing is one of our 2:10 guys runs 2:03, right? He's 26, by the way.

His agent, Federico Rosa.

Asefa Mengstu Negewo is 31 years old and has pr's dating back to 2011 and 2012 in a few cases of 13:46/28:54 (both 2012), then 59:54 in New Delhi in 2017 and 2:04:06 in Dubai last year. His marathon bests per year:

2:19:40, Valencia 2014

2:08:41, Cape Town 2016

2:10:01, Cape Town, 2017

2:04:06, Dubai 2018

2:04:24, Dubai 2019

His agent, Federico Rosa.

There is a lot that is suspicious about these results.

guy who assumes a lot wrote:

"could've went"

?????

you realize how dumb you sound, right?!

+1

For the grammatically challenged dunces, try speaking what you've written before posting as a proofreading method.

Than again, maybe some of you are so stupid this is not only how you write but also how you speak.

Observer of LRC dunce posters wrote:

guy who assumes a lot wrote:

"could've went"

?????

you realize how dumb you sound, right?!

+1

For the grammatically challenged dunces, try speaking what you've written before posting as a proofreading method.

Than again, maybe some of you are so stupid this is not only how you write but also how you speak.

*Then

*...stupid(,) this...

*...how you write (, or ;) but...

Thank you for highlighting those 3 individuals. Definitely something fishy going on there.

If the organisers first manage to keep Kipchoge from getting knocked down and trampled by hobbyjoggers, I think it's too hot there for even Kipchoge to run sub 2:03. As for getting pacers through 30k....who are you getting that can run 2hr pace for 30k? I would predict he'd run 2:03:30 like he did when it was hot/wet in Berlin 2017.

SteeeeV wrote:

If the organisers first manage to keep Kipchoge from getting knocked down and trampled by hobbyjoggers, I think it's too hot there for even Kipchoge to run sub 2:03. As for getting pacers through 30k....who are you getting that can run 2hr pace for 30k? I would predict he'd run 2:03:30 like he did when it was hot/wet in Berlin 2017.

I agree with you that Dubai is too hot to be conducive to a WR time, and have posted that here but was told by the ball-knocking turkeys on here that it is not warm at all at Dubai. Bullocks.