Official 2018 NXN Discussion Thread

CoolDataRegardless wrote:

I definitely understand the logic you used, and like I mentioned I really enjoy this kind of thing (I'm majoring in Mathematics/Statistics so this is right up my alley haha). Comparing XC times is super difficult since nothing is standardized, but the data is interesting nonetheless. Assuming you have all the data in an excel document, is there any chance I could take a look at it? Feel free to say no, but I'd love to dig a little deeper.

What'd be super cool is to incorporate the course Speed rating stuff from Meylan that adjust times to account for the course the DAY the race was run. For example NXR SE was run in an 40 degree, ongoing downpour, so no LV kids going to NXN, set PRs.

If I didn't have this 'job' and 'family' things, I'd pitch in, in an open source kinda way.

I have done that for the girls, using the SR data to project order of finish, Team scores, and individual times in Portland (using last year SR there as basis for the times). Would be easy to mimic for the boys. Just an Excel workbook.

If you are in the west regional meet for foot locker you cannot do both NXN and footlocker.

If you get an at large bid you can

replieddd wrote:

If you get an at large bid you can

No. That is all

Yes, my calculations include the effects of temperature, wind, and soil moisture content, but I still need to refine the modeling of humidity and elevation. Since Washington State has relatively low humidity and elevation, I haven't had to solve those yet. Now that I'm branching out into nation-wide predictions, I will need to get better soon. :)

NXN 2018 wrote:

Girls individuals:

1. Katelyn Tuohy

2. Emily Covert

3. Kelsey Chmiel

Tiahna Vladic. Heard it hear first. Will be top 3 and will make Tuohy a chump.

Give 'em the business, boys!!!!!

VladicWillUpset wrote:

Tiahna Vladic. Heard it hear first. Will be top 3 and will make Tuohy a chump.

She’s not even undefeated. She finished 4th and 2nd in her races this season.

Girls top twelve

1 - Katelyn Tuohy

2 - Emily Covert +35

3 - Kelsey Chmiel +38

4 - Taylor Ewert +47

5 - Katelynne Hart +52

6 - Ericka Vanderlende +62

7 - London Culbreath +64

8 - Sydney Thorvaldson +68

9 - Claire Walters +73

10 - Tori Gaitan +77

11 - Grace Ping +81

12 - Lauren Ping +82

Drew Bosley for the win.

I'll go with Ryan Oosting for the win.

I think this thread will be more interesting on the women's side to predict margin of victory: Katelyn Tuohy for the win by 27 sec.

Ya'll are forget AA Pioneer's Nick Foster. Man's crazy down the homestretch. He's gone through a bit of a rough patch the past couple of weeks. But, if he's healthy he's a top-5 contender.

What is the open race like?

Any links to previous results?

Loudoun Valley gets some pub in the Washington Post ahead of trying to defend their faux championship:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/highschools/loudoun-valley-cross-country-goes-cross-country-to-defend-its-national-title/2018/11/29/8492781e-f103-11e8-80d0-f7e1948d55f4_story.html?utm_term=.70598f987e89

nikenxnnike wrote:

Loudoun Valley gets some pub in the Washington Post ahead of trying to defend their faux championship:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/highschools/loudoun-valley-cross-country-goes-cross-country-to-defend-its-national-title/2018/11/29/8492781e-f103-11e8-80d0-f7e1948d55f4_story.html?utm_term=.70598f987e89

Faux?

If I were a betting man (and gambling was legal): Only runners with 192 speed rating or above get individual win percentage/odsds

Boys:

Sprout: 20% - Undefeated all year and appears yet to run to full potential.

Oosting: 18% - undefeated as well but first year XC.

Anderson: 17% - odds better than hocker/bosley because of last year's performance. Highest career speed rating here.

Hocker: 12 % - undefeated, but speed rating lower than Oosting/Sprout.

Bosley: 9%- odds benefit from last year's experience.

Stanley - 5% - coming on strong.

Ramos - 4% - 194 speed rating at Mt. Sac

Allred - 4% top talent, but lost to Sprout

Foster - 3% - struggled at FL regionals but clearly a top talent

Methner - 2% - still a junior, but juniors seem to overachieve - top 3 place not unimaginable

Holland - 2% - see Methner above.

Meier - 2% - Struggled recently but among the top 12, only Anderson has a better career speed rating. Would be a great comeback story

Field/rest of the pack: 2% in the following order Harrison, Strangio, Hicks, Young.

Girls:

Touhy - 88% - unless something goes drastically wrong or she decides to take it easy...

Field - 12%

Ciro wrote:

What is the open race like?

Any links to previous results?

2017 NXN open race results:

Last year Tuohy went out "too hard" for her own liking and still crushed everyone by over half a minute.

Honestly, tomorrow we might just be lucky enough to witness the greatest performance EVER by a HS XC runner. Trotter's 180 speed rating will be under threat for certain. Wouldn't be surprised if she wins by 50 or so seconds.