5000m Talk: Will any Americans break 13:00 this year or next, outdoors, who's next

Runningart2004 wrote:

Sub 13:00 would likely mean an AR. Not going to happen. BK will have the record for a long time. So many have been oh so close...but oh so far.

Goucher was "supposed" be the "next BK", break his record, etc, didn't happen, now Rupp is the next great one....again I just don't think it's going to happen. To me Rupp just has 10k/marathoner written all over him like Med and Abdi. Fam, with his 3k steeple creds, may be the one with the best chance.

12:58 is very fast.

Alan

How fast was Kennedy over a mile or 1500? Or 3K or 5K coming out of college? Rupp is already down to Kennedy on the mile/1500 and comes out of college faster at 3K and 5K, and those were from indoor marks and he was sick in the 3K. His 10K mark as a junior in college is better than what Kennedy ran as a seasoned veteran. I'm not saying he will get it (though I believe he can) but I'm wondering how you think it's a given he won't when across the board he's much stronger and faster than Kennedy as a college senior. His 1500 and 10K are both ready for some drops if he competes in those in Europe, which would make him substantially better than Kennedy both below and above the 5K. So if speeds not an issue, and strength is not an issue then what is? Just the notion that only one white American has done it before so another won't?

Kennedy: Rupp:

Personal Best Times

1500 meters 3:38.2 3:39.1

Mile 3:56.21 3:57.86i

2000 meters 4:59.9 No Time

3000 meters 7:30.84 (American Record) 7:44.69i

2 miles 8:11.59 (Former American Record) No Time

5000 meters 12:58.21 (American Record) 13:18.12i

10,000 meters 27:37.45 27:33.48

Kennedy spent how many years on the european circuit racing multiple 3ks and 5ks every summer. When was the last time Rupp hit that circuit?

Logic? wrote:

Kennedy spent how many years on the european circuit racing multiple 3ks and 5ks every summer. When was the last time Rupp hit that circuit?

AlSal: Hi, I have a 3:39+ runner I would like to enter in a fast European 1500.

Race Organizer: Hahahahahahahahahhahahahahahah!

Without knowing much about Kennedy's college days, did he have a personal coach? I'm thinking not. The level of coaching could also be a factor. Was Kennedy maxed out in college or did he have a lot of untapped potential that just required some personal coaching.

I'm not saying this to bash Rupp or anything, I am a fan. But I think, because if his situation, he is one of the best coached runners in college. Not many runners get that kind of attention.

Lagat isn't getting mentioned very much as the next possible AR holder. I'm sure that is because a lot of posters don't view him as a 'real American runner'. But my money would be on Bernard to have the record before anyone else.

Yes, Goucher was supposed to be the next BK, but he f**ked up, didn't he? Then again, Goucher didn't win NCAA xc as a freshman AND a senior. That's a pretty unique stat.

I think Rupp has the talent to be a better distance runner than Kennedy ever was. It is well within Rupp's reach for him to run faster this year than Kennedy ever did for 1500m. Based upon his 7:44i run, Rupp could run mid-to-high 7:30's right now, and he could probably run around or maybe a little under 13:10 right now, as a senior in college. I think Rupp has the ability to be a better distance runner than Tegenkamp, Solinsky, and Famiglietti will ever be. I think a lot will depend on how long Rupp stays will Salazar and co, and really I see no reason for him to ever leave Salazar.

And to those who are turning this into a matching of times from this race to that race, don't turn this into a pissing contest. I agree with Alan that it will be very difficult for any Americans to break 13 this year, with possibly the exception of Lagat, but I wouldn't say it's impossible. Next year I say the chances of that happening increase dramatically.

For 1500m/3k/5k, as far as talent & potential go:

Lagat > Rupp > Tegenkamp > Solinsky > Famiglietti

A few years from now, hopefully we'll be watching the new crop of distance steeds setting a new crop of standards(Derrick, Fernandez, Centrowitz, Puskedra, etc.)

To those slamming the 2 races Teg has had this year, remember he was out with a knee injury most of the winter, and didn't even get to run indoors. I think he will have a better shot at sub 13 next year, but should make the world team this year.

Another good assessment!

BK had one of the best college coaches around, back when Indiana actually had some great teams, for the life of me I can't remember his name.

BK was also a notoriously low mileage runner in high school and college and even early in his pro days rarely running more than 30-50 miles a week. Not long after he upped the miles and started training with the big boys (Komen and company) did he reach his potential.

Alan

Goucher ran 13:11 in '99....barely a year after graduating college.

BK ran 13:14 just a year after college.

That step from low 13s to sub 13 is a long and lonely one.

Alan

Some very good posts here (and a selection of LetsRun misguided/trolls as well). 27:36 in Beijing, running a lot solo when Bekele was busting his ass to run ~27-flat tells us something. I think that Rupp is probably at least half a level better this year, although he was peaking last year for one key event while he will not have that structure this year.

I think that he will get the AR whenever he races in good conditions at peak conditions (possibly the WC's but all sorts of things might derail those possibilities, from championship race pacing/irregularity to having to have so many peaks). I think that Nelson is being overlooked and might give Rupp a run for his money to an AR (which might really make a fast race under the right circumstances, but I do not think that they will run balls-out at USATF because it is a top-3 race not a winner-take-all objective).

I think that American distance running is returning to a level that marked the first running boom, although it is not there yet. [look at the stars we have now: Lagat, Teg, Rupp, Solinksy, Hall, Ritzenhein, Fam, Webb, Manzano, Lukezic, Lomong, Nelsons (Tim 10,000, Billy SC) Symmonds, Wheating, Fernandez, ; Barringer, Willard, Goucher, Kastor, Shalane Flanagan, Rowbury, Wurth-Thomas,...; I have left out a few and focused a little more on the younger ones than the older ones without even listing 9:40 college SCers]

Goucher was SECOND as a frosh, and won as a senior. Virtually the same thing.

He hasn't yet, and since he will likely not focus on a lot of mile/1500 races the next few years, won't necessarily run faster. If faster, maybe only slightly. And, as you point out, the fact that Kennedy won x-c nats as an 18 y.o, low mileage frosh was amazing, and possibly shows superior natural endurance to Rupp. So maybe Rupp has slightly more speed, but Kennedy may have had superior natural endurance ability, despite the fact that he stayed with the 5k, and Rupp showed great promise at 10k at a young age.

That's quite the stretch/jump. I'd say 7:39. That is nowhere the 7:30 Kennedy ran. I doubt Rupp will ever run 7:30.

Possibly, more likely 13:12. And yes he is a "senior" but one that has been training at a high, international level for many years.

Basically, Rupp appears to have a good shot to run near 13:00 someday. Break 12:58? That is hardly a sure thing, by any stretch of the imagination.

One thing that gets left out of these sub-13 and sub-27 discussions is the effect of depth. Kenya and Ethiopia have had great runners for 50 years but they became completely dominant in the 90s due to their numbers. Now, in any given year they, have several different guys at 12:50 and sub 27. We will never get to their level but we could get some people in the mix.

I am optimistic about US running because we are starting to see more runners reaching the higher (not highest) levels in distance events. Depth is important because (1) there is an increased probability that one out of several persons will exceed expectations and (2) the peer group effect.

I think we will see 12:50s or low-27s for Americans when there are 6-8 guys at 13:10 or 6-8 guys at 27:30.

The best thing that could happen to Rupp is to have four or five more Tim Nelson's in the 10k. Right now Rupp is practically guaranteed a trip to Berlin with a 27:45-27:50.

BK's accomplishments were incredible but here's hoping we do not need to wait another decade to get back there.

Also, I like what we are seeing from the very young guys like Meade, Jager, Bethke, Derrick, Fernandez and Puskedra.

Correction to an earlier post. Jager ran 13:28, finishing 2nd. Not 13:27 placing first.

If Teg pushes the pace going for the auto, someone else without the auto could chase Lagat, Teg, Solinsky to grab that fourth spot and get the auto too. Dobson? Asmerson? Jager? Bumbalough? Mead? Bethke?

Salazar and Rupp have made it no secret that they want to develope speed now. Kennedy's best outdoor mark is a rabbitted 3:56 at PRE classic. It was back when they ran it in the evening and it was absolutely perfect, I was there.

Rupp has run 3:39 on the same track in the day time (windy) and with 2 races the day before and 3 races the week before. Not only that, but his 3:39 was not rabbited and was on 3:42-3:43 pace at the half.

Rupp will run more 1500s and in the future he'll hit some on fresh (relative term for him) legs and probably in a rabbitted race, his 1500/mile will see a big drop.

Teenwolf wrote:

Logic? wrote:

Kennedy spent how many years on the european circuit racing multiple 3ks and 5ks every summer. When was the last time Rupp hit that circuit?

AlSal: Hi, I have a 3:39+ runner I would like to enter in a fast European 1500.

Race Organizer: Hahahahahahahahahhahahahahahah!

Correction:

AlSal: Hi, I have a 3:39.1 runner I would like to enter in a fast European 1500.

Race Organizer: Who is it?

AlSal: Galen Rupp. He ran 1:49, 3:57 & 7:44 indoors, he recently ran 3:39 in a qualifying race closing in :54. He was 13th in the 10K final last year in Beijing.

Race Organizer: So what can he run?

AlSal: 3:34-3:35

Race Organizer: We have a B heat going at 3:34 pace, he can get in there.

the Germans Schlangen (3:34) and Eberhardt (3:33) just ran some pretty decent times. Were those pr's? Are they on the way up? (Oh, and so 3:34 would get him into an A heat in Berlin).

Getting 2nd place is virtually the same as winning? Why don't you ask Goucher if that's how he feels about placing 2nd. Ask Craig Mottram, Usain Bolt, and a host of other professional athletes the same thing. See what their answers are.

You're right about Rupp having not run faster than Kennedy ever did at 1500m, not yet, but I think Rupp has run faster than Kennedy ever did in college. Did Kennedy ever run 3:57 or faster indoors? What about 3:39 outdoors? Look those stats up. And did Kennedy ever run 1:49 indoors(or outdoors for that matter) while in college?

I said mid-to-high 7:30's, meaning 7:35-7:39. Not 7:30.xx. Yes, saying Rupp could run 7:30 right now would be a stretch. Not many people on the planet can do that right now.

13:12 is around 13:10. Are you even reading what I wrote? I said "around or maybe a little under 13:10". I think 13:12 constitutes a time that could be considered "around" 13:10, don't you? And it doesn't really disprove my point, which is that Rupp is a better distance runner in college than when Kennedy was in college. I give Kennedy the toughness edge as freshman in winning ncaa xc, but Rupp did some ridiculous things in college that would've injured Kennedy if he'd tried(because his mileage was so low).

LetsRun should do a poll comparing Bob Kennedy to Galen Rupp as NCAA athletes. Who would win in an 8k/10k xc race? What about 1500m/3k/5k outdoors?

12:58 is blazing fast, but I think it's going down within 15 months. As the wise poster above noted, it's all about a big enough pool challenging the long odds. We now have Lagat, Teg, Solinsky, and Rupp within striking range this season or next, assuming one of them has the race of their careers. Fernandez and Derrick aren't far behind, and could be in the same range within a year or two. And there are a handful of slightly older guys like Bethke who are feeding the pipeline, too. It's just a matter of time now before the Letsrun generation finally rewrites the record books.

Kennedy broke 13 when breaking 13 meant something. Kennedy was very close to sub 13 when the world record was still within limits (12:5x). Now, Africans routinely go under that barrier. Heck, Geb + Bekele ran sub 13 for the 2nd half of the incredible 10000m dual at Paris '03.

We need to stop thinking of sub 13 as a mystical barrier and take chances. Go for it - you die, you die - but atleast you were en route through half way to get sub 13.

Kennedy was coached by Sam Bell at Indiana - one of the best coaches of the late 20th century. BK also trained with Kim MacDonald and Kenyans. Learn your history when pondering if he had untapped potential.

Also, comparing 1500/mile times, while interesting for discussion, does not mean a whole lot when you're trying to match up the current AR holder with one who may or may not ever break 13.

When all is said and done for Rupp in few years...13:03-04 for 5000, new AR in 10000 (sub 27:10), and possibly Hall-Kannouchi like levels in the marathon.