Would Hocker have beaten peak Jakob today in 5k?

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2 days ago 09/21/2025 4:48pm EDT

re: Just a guess

Just a guess wrote:
Cole ran a 25 last 200 in a 12:58 race going wide in poor conditions. However, Jakob also made his 2024 and 2022 victories look very easy closing in 26 without being all out. It’s hard to say definitively that’s why they run the race.
Just guessing, but I think Jakob can run 3:26-7:15-12:33 at his peak and Cole probably 3:26-7:19-12:45. Keep in mind Cole peaks very well for championships, he’s likely a guy that responds very well to tapering (like Centro or Manzano imo), so this is what shape he’ll be in at worlds and Olympics even if his early season performances don’t indicate that.
They’re both incredible and hopefully they’ll be in good enough health to have amazing battles over these distances from through 2028.

Gotta agree with this. Even if Jakob has 10s over Cole in a pure TT 5000 it's still no guarantee he wins in a championship scenario if he doesn't execute properly.

And this is coming from someone who thought he would be completely invincible in the 5000 for the foreseeable future. If Cole did what he did in a 13:20 race today it probably wouldn't have changed the narrative, but this is at the same level of what he did in Paris.

2 days ago 09/21/2025 4:53pm EDT

re: insightlessness

insightlessness wrote:
Unknowable but possible. Jakobs 7:17 was really at his peak fitness whereas Hockers 7:23 was clearly not at his peak fitness. So the strength difference is not as dramatic as people think.
If Jakob pushed from 1-2k out to grind out the kicks, it would thin the pack enough that if Hocker could hang he likely is not sitting back in 12th but more like 3-5th at the bell. So he probably doesn't need mid/low 52 to win. I hope we get a few more great battles from these two.

The single biggest outlier performance of his life bar maybe the olympic final where he was dragged 95% of the way was CLEARLY not at he was at peak fitness?

2 days ago 09/21/2025 4:58pm EDT

re: freekiprop

freekiprop wrote:
insightlessness wrote:
Unknowable but possible. Jakobs 7:17 was really at his peak fitness whereas Hockers 7:23 was clearly not at his peak fitness. So the strength difference is not as dramatic as people think.
If Jakob pushed from 1-2k out to grind out the kicks, it would thin the pack enough that if Hocker could hang he likely is not sitting back in 12th but more like 3-5th at the bell. So he probably doesn't need mid/low 52 to win. I hope we get a few more great battles from these two.
The single biggest outlier performance of his life bar maybe the olympic final where he was dragged 95% of the way was CLEARLY not at peak fitness?

Removed two words

2 days ago 09/21/2025 4:59pm EDT

re: faster pace, faster finish

Jakob can close 800 in 150, while Cole closes 800 in 1:54

that’s the difference.

2 days ago 09/21/2025 5:07pm EDT

re: Saint Bede

Saint Bede wrote:
Jakob can close 800 in 150, while Cole closes 800 in 1:54
that’s the difference.

but Hocker closed in 52 and in a significantly faster race with non-ideal weather.

2 days ago 09/21/2025 5:07pm EDT

re: Koltrast

Koltrast wrote:
Jakob was only four seconds behind Hocker off no training, so no. If he can't rely on his kick then he's reduced to a 13:10 runner, as we saw when he was in the race where Almgren ran the European record.

you can't close a sub-13 race in 52, if you aren't already in 12:30 high shape minimum.

2 days ago 09/21/2025 5:07pm EDT

re: Almost the best

Jakob knew the date and location of the world championships a long time ago. If he didn't show up in his best form, that's on him. Hocker is the deserving world champion.

2 days ago 09/21/2025 5:10pm EDT

re: freekiprop

freekiprop wrote:
insightlessness wrote:
Unknowable but possible. Jakobs 7:17 was really at his peak fitness whereas Hockers 7:23 was clearly not at his peak fitness. So the strength difference is not as dramatic as people think.
If Jakob pushed from 1-2k out to grind out the kicks, it would thin the pack enough that if Hocker could hang he likely is not sitting back in 12th but more like 3-5th at the bell. So he probably doesn't need mid/low 52 to win. I hope we get a few more great battles from these two.
The single biggest outlier performance of his life bar maybe the olympic final where he was dragged 95% of the way was CLEARLY not at he was at peak fitness?

Peak fitness? No. Very good fitness, but Cole only times his peaks for outdoor championship races. The indoor 3k was not peaked for.

2 days ago 09/21/2025 5:13pm EDT

re: Curious_Cat

Curious_Cat wrote:
Koltrast wrote:
Jakob was only four seconds behind Hocker off no training, so no. If he can't rely on his kick then he's reduced to a 13:10 runner, as we saw when he was in the race where Almgren ran the European record.
you can't close a sub-13 race in 52, if you aren't already in 12:30 high shape minimum.

You just made that up.

He could faster, sure, but exactly how much is anybody's guess.

Hocker is one of those rare specimens that can throw down a mad anaerobic ~40-second burst even when he has been going fairly close to his aerobic limit.

2 days ago 09/21/2025 5:14pm EDT

re: Almost the best

Almost the best wrote:
I think we know the answer.
For me, his 5k win has an asterisk. I can’t crown him as the best unless he beats Peak Jakob.

Of course he could! The sky is the limit for Hocker, who after showing no indication at all that he is capable of it, closes a sub 13 5000m in 52 seconds and looked easy doing it. Let’s all eat it up! Go Hocker!

2 days ago 09/21/2025 5:20pm EDT

re: Cool Hocker

Cool Hocker wrote:
Curious_Cat wrote:
you can't close a sub-13 race in 52, if you aren't already in 12:30 high shape minimum.
You just made that up.
He could faster, sure, but exactly how much is anybody's guess.
Hocker is one of those rare specimens that can throw down a mad anaerobic ~40-second burst even when he has been going fairly close to his aerobic limit.

No matter how much speed someone has, if they don't have the endurance/aerobic capacity, their close would vanish. Being able to run the last 400m at his 800m pace (actually faster if you account for the fact that he ran most of it in lane 2)meant he was very comfortable running at 13:05 pace and you can't feel comfortable running a certain pace if it's already close to your max-out pace.

2 days ago 09/21/2025 5:23pm EDT

re: Curious_Cat

Curious_Cat wrote:
Saint Bede wrote:
Jakob can close 800 in 150, while Cole closes 800 in 1:54
that’s the difference.
but Hocker closed in 52 and in a significantly faster race with non-ideal weather.

Right. But peak Jakob would’ve made the penultimate lap 58-59 instead of 63 or whatever it was. So the field would be strung out more and Cole would have a lot more ground to make up.

2 days ago 09/21/2025 5:24pm EDT

re: 1500m-enthusiast

btw, the second fastest last lap in Tokyo tonight was 54.06 by Kimeli, that goes to show how crazy Hocker's close was and that's why he went from 12th to 1st in one lap.

2 days ago 09/21/2025 5:29pm EDT

re: Saint Bede

Saint Bede wrote:
Curious_Cat wrote:
but Hocker closed in 52 and in a significantly faster race with non-ideal weather.
Right. But peak Jakob would’ve made the penultimate lap 58-59 instead of 63 or whatever it was. So the field would be strung out more and Cole would have a lot more ground to make up.

I agree that would be what he does and it could work, though there's definitely no guarantee compared to Paris where he's a lock. The level of talent Hocker has is way above that of any competitors he has ever faced in the distance.

The closest one is Katir, but even he is not particularly close, never mind the fact that he got popped already.

This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.

2 days ago 09/21/2025 5:45pm EDT

re: Curious_Cat

Curious_Cat wrote:
Saint Bede wrote:
Jakob can close 800 in 150, while Cole closes 800 in 1:54
that’s the difference.
but Hocker closed in 52 and in a significantly faster race with non-ideal weather.

I mean…the final 2k of this race for Hocker was 10 seconds slower than Jakob’s final 2k in Budapest. Jakob was also sick in that race so you can’t pull a non ideal weather. It seems like the first 3k in this race was at a decent pace but then everyone let up in the last 2. I think peak Jakob wins here easily. All credit to Hocker.

This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.

2 days ago 09/21/2025 6:15pm EDT

re: rojo

All of the comparisons made against Jakob are based on the fact that Jakob has never ran an all out 5000 race because he doesn't run it on the circuit. Jakob with no training just ran 4 seconds slower than Hocker who's supposedly in the best shape on his life, how exactly does that translate into Jakob never having a shot at beating Hocker in the 5000?

If Jakob applies his usual strategy of ramping up the laps with a mile or so to go, and Hocker still has it in him to outkick him in a race that's about 12:50 or faster, then Hocker would be the greatest 5000 runner of all time. And I don't think we're quite there yet.

2 days ago 09/21/2025 6:55pm EDT

re: Koltrast

Koltrast wrote:
All of the comparisons made against Jakob are based on the fact that Jakob has never ran an all out 5000 race because he doesn't run it on the circuit. Jakob with no training just ran 4 seconds slower than Hocker who's supposedly in the best shape on his life, how exactly does that translate into Jakob never having a shot at beating Hocker in the 5000?
If Jakob applies his usual strategy of ramping up the laps with a mile or so to go, and Hocker still has it in him to outkick him in a race that's about 12:50 or faster, then Hocker would be the greatest 5000 runner of all time. And I don't think we're quite there yet.

The discussion as a whole is honestly baffling. Jakob won 3 straight global 5k finals, crushed the 3k WR last year, and defeated the WR holder in a 12:48 race at 20 years old. There’s no question he would’ve won had he been in peak fitness. It’s bizarre that people can look at his accomplishments and wonder whether he could close a 12:58 race in 52.

2 days ago 09/21/2025 7:26pm EDT

re: Lane One

Lane One wrote:
Peak Fisher beats them both.

not happening unless he beats hocker in a 12:40s race

2 days ago 09/21/2025 7:40pm EDT

re: freekiprop

freekiprop wrote:
freekiprop wrote:
The single biggest outlier performance of his life bar maybe the olympic final where he was dragged 95% of the way was CLEARLY not at peak fitness?
Removed two words

To help you understand pro track, yes anything he did in FEBRUARY was not Cole Hocker at PEAK fitness. He has shown multiple years how he gets to his BEST for a given year at the championships. He is currently at his PEAK and just made a MOCKERY of every other 5k runner.

2 days ago 09/21/2025 7:46pm EDT

re: Saint Bede

Saint Bede wrote:
Curious_Cat wrote:
but Hocker closed in 52 and in a significantly faster race with non-ideal weather.
Right. But peak Jakob would’ve made the penultimate lap 58-59 instead of 63 or whatever it was. So the field would be strung out more and Cole would have a lot more ground to make up.

Maybe, the thing to remember is that Jakob would string it out and people will fall off. So Hocker would presumably be moving up (all dependent upon whether or not he could hang). But if he is still attached at 400 to go he would not be in 12th and 2 seconds back so his requirements for the last lap would not be as drastic. He just ran mid 52 mostly in lane 2 and he did 7:23 in February and is without a doubt fitter now. The race would at least be interesting. I lean toward Jakob, but would not be shocked if Hocker rolled him.

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