Would Hocker have beaten peak Jakob today in 5k?

I think it would be very close. Hopefully we find out in 2027

They’re close to equal in the 1500m but at twice the distance, Ingebrigtsen is about 5 seconds faster. That advantage would only increase over 5000m.

I would say 7:3 Hocker:Jakob

Jakob would really need to grind Cole down with 12:50 pace before the bell lap,
presumably teaming up with the likes of Gebriwet, Young and Fisher, otherwise I can't see he could survive Hocker's devastating kick.

Edit: that said, it could well be recency bias on my part, as I'm still stunned by the finish. I've never seen anything like that in a championship 5k.

Winning times and splits from the last 4 global championships:

Eugene 2022: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:09.24) final 3000m: 7:50.25, final 2000m: 5:04.48, final 1000m: 2:23.14, final 800m: 1:52.78, final 600m: 1:23.01, final 400m: 53.93, final 200m: 26.68, final 100m: 13.52

Budapest 2023: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:11.30) final 3000m: 7:34.45, final 2000m: 4:56.69, final 1000m: 2:21.07, final 800m: 1:50.65, final 600m: 1:19.90, final 400m: 52.45, final 200m: 26.20, final 100m: 13.25

Paris 2024: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:13.66) final 3000m: 7:35.4, final 2000m: 4:55.4, final 1000m: 2:21.1, final 800m: 1:50.x, final 600m: 1:20.x, final 400m: 53.2, final 200m: 26.5, final 100m: 13.2

Tokyo 2025: Cole Hocker (12:58.30) final 3000m: 7:41.75, final 2000m: 5:05.48, final 1000m: 2:25.31, final 800m: 1:54.06, final 600m: 1:23.12, final 400m: 52.62, final 200m: 25.50, final 100m: 12.51

Hocker has a monster finish. But I think Jakob, injury-free and in peak shape, would've gradually turned up the heat with 3-4 laps remaining and running the kick out of Hocker.

Peak Jakob is a 12:30 guy so no.

7:17.5 3k is 1320 points

12:30 5k is 1320 points

Nice data. It's clear that CH finished a faster race with a faster kick.

Peak Hocker looks down on prime Jordan, Ali, Pele etc

Unknowable but possible. Jakobs 7:17 was really at his peak fitness whereas Hockers 7:23 was clearly not at his peak fitness. So the strength difference is not as dramatic as people think.

If Jakob pushed from 1-2k out to grind out the kicks, it would thin the pack enough that if Hocker could hang he likely is not sitting back in 12th but more like 3-5th at the bell. So he probably doesn't need mid/low 52 to win. I hope we get a few more great battles from these two.

Most people think he is perfectly suited to the 3000m.

No asterisk for Hocker. He was the best on the day. Same goes for Gressier and Nader in their events.

I do think peak Jakob would’ve won today, but full credit to Hocker for the win. He was very good.

A pretty crazy stat I found was that Jakob did 13:02.03 with a final 200m of 25.6 in London 2019. So almost as fast finishing time AND final 200m as Hocker today. And Jakob was only 18 at the time

(Final 1000m was 2:25.8, final 600m was 1:23.3, final 400m was 53.6)

In Rome last year, Jakob's final 200m was 25.51 and final 100m was 12.63 (albeit in a 13:20 race)

Cole ran a 25 last 200 in a 12:58 race going wide in poor conditions. However, Jakob also made his 2024 and 2022 victories look very easy closing in 26 without being all out. It’s hard to say definitively that’s why they run the race.

Just guessing, but I think Jakob can run 3:26-7:15-12:33 at his peak and Cole probably 3:26-7:19-12:45. Keep in mind Cole peaks very well for championships, he’s likely a guy that responds very well to tapering (like Centro or Manzano imo), so this is what shape he’ll be in at worlds and Olympics even if his early season performances don’t indicate that.

They’re both incredible and hopefully they’ll be in good enough health to have amazing battles over these distances from through 2028.

Jakob was only four seconds behind Hocker off no training, so no. If he can't rely on his kick then he's reduced to a 13:10 runner, as we saw when he was in the race where Almgren ran the European record.

It's also worth noting this was Jakob's first loss ever in a 5000m final in his SENIOR career. His last season as a junior was in 2019. From 2020 and up until today he has run 5000m 9 times, and won 8 of them.

I looked at the same stats for Hocker. He became a senior in 2021. Since then he has run a total of 14 finals in the 5000m (13 outdoor and one indoor) He has won 7 of them (He has had a 2 DNFs in those 14 5000m races)

Peak Fisher beats them both.

would like to add though, Hocker ran most of his last lap in lane 2, as he's going through traffic, so his close was even more impressive than it looked.

The irony is that Jakob going to the front and slowing the race down with 4 laps to go is what HELPED Hocker win.

Peak Jakob was unbeatable from 1500m to 5000m, especially in paced races. He was objectively the fastest. Unfortunately, peak Jakob currently does not exist. I hope he comes back next year because he made track racing much more fun to watch.

Nah, it had already slowed down before he took the lead. The 8th lap was at 64.