It’s been a significant trend the last few years that the best in the ncaa are doing minimal school. The UNC duo, most of Washington, NAU are all known to be in extremely easy majors and/or rarely go to class. There are obviously outliers, but I think this is the main reason for Kidalis lack of success.
Economics / philosophy at Harvard?
I said there were outliers. Grant fisher was an engineer and (I think) even got his masters. Geordie beamish I believe was also an engineer. These are exceptions not the rule.
I feel the need to elaborate. Stress is stress, whether it’s from school or running. I can’t remember the news article/interview it was, but Kidali was on record saying he’s going to Oregon to get his education. It’s reasonable to say this is more stressful for him than a normal US hs grad (moving to a new country, new training/coaches/team, ostensibly having to speak his second language, etc.) Not to mention that it’s entirely possible that Jerry’s training just doesn’t fit Kidali.
For Kidali to run slower this year makes total sense to me. I hope he figures it all out so he can push the American collegiates to the best of their ability.
The NCAA outdoor season is officially over and one of the most interesting athletes of the season has to be Oregons star recruit Koitatoi Kidali - the "1.42 man" and Kenyan Olympian.
Obviously over here on a full scholarship and strong rumors of a six-figure NIL deal, which would make sense as a 1.42 runner and Kenyan Olympian in the 800m - one of the historically most difficult events to make the Kenyan team in. His 1.42.66 PR makes him the 33rd fastest human ever and while running under 1.43.0 is certainly not as rare as it once was, it's still an incredibly high level of ability. By PR, Kidali was 1.80 seconds faster than the next fastest NCAA 800m runner Sam Whitmarsh (PR 1.44.46) - the eventual 2025 champion.
Things haven't quite worked out for Kidali post the Kenyan Olympic trials. He went to Paris and ran 1.45.84 in the heats - becoming the first sub 1.43.0 runner in history that has started at the Olympic Games to not make out of the first round (he couldn't make it past the repechage either running 1.46.37), and since coming to NCAA things haven't really worked out either. He finished the indoor season with a best of 1.46.55 and being DQ'd at NCAA indoors, and couldn't break 1.47.0 outdoors until the national semi final in Eugene where he was able to run his career second best time of 1.45.31 but unfortunately being so extended in doing so had to dive across the line and injured his shoulder.
Like many of us here, I've watched a lot of middle distance races - especially 800m races. I guess to put it bluntly, I am trying to wrap my head around how this guy has possibly run under 1.43 for 2 laps. I went back and watched the other two sub 1.46.0 races he's run in lifetime (both in the 1.45.X's) and I don't quite get it. My expectation of a 1.42 runner in a 1.45 race is not that it's easy, but that at this level of PR you should find this quite manageable and especially manageable vs other runners not at that level. Similar to how Bryce Hoppel, in winning the US trials in 1.42.77 - his PR at the time, went to Paris and was able to comfortably get through the heat in 1.45.24 - or every other sub 1.43 guy in history. Donovan Brazier only has a lifetime PR only 3 tenths of a second faster than Kidali - and yet after a 3 year hiatus has been able to run two races in under 1.45 and 1.44 respectively looking extremely comfortable.
I guess I'm just confused and would like to know why it's been so tough here under Jerry Schumacher for him to even run close to his potential?
I agree only in the fact that he has definitely "under-performed" so far this season. The reason I say "so far", is that it wouldn't shock me if he ran 1:44 or 1:43 this summer. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt, and put a lot of the reason for his lack luster season on the adjustment of being in school, away from home, in a completely new environment, and new coach. If you think about it, that's a lot to manage for any new student athlete. One would say, "Oh, but he's run 1:42 and he's making some serious bank, he better run fast". Last year was last year. Let's see what he does this summer, because he is fit and if not injured (shoulder), should run some good times. If not, he's got until next winter (indoors) to prove he's worth the money.
We can be sure that the kid was doped and aided by thr altitude. Contrary to popular belief, 800 runners are aided by the altitude, as are many high altitude natives in the 1500.
I love this thread.
Why? Because, nothing explains it.
Doping? Altitude? So are you saying he only doped for the final of the Kenyan Trials and no other race? And it's not like that was his only altitude race of the year.
Hell in his previous race, in the first round of the Kenyan Trials, he only ran 1:47.19 and finished third in his heat. So he got into the final on time, I assume..
What's crazy is last year other than the Trials, his other results were quite mediocre. Most of them were at altitude. 5th in Naoribi on March 6th at 1:46.07. In his last race before to the Trials, he ran 1:47.16 for third in Europe.
On March 6th in Nairori, he ran 1:46.07 and was only 5th in his race (but on January 26th he ran 1:45.72 at altitud eand won). In the race before the Kenyan Trials, he raced in and only ran 1:47.16 and was beaten by 0.45 (to an Olympic semifinalist) in Germany.
Nothing explains it really except for the fact that he's wildly inconsistent.
He doped for for only race? Altitude only beneftted him for only one race?
I said there were outliers. Grant fisher was an engineer and (I think) even got his masters. Geordie beamish I believe was also an engineer. These are exceptions not the rule.
Grant is the exception that proves the rule... in retrospect he underachieved in college, in part due to his extremely challenging major.
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What you need to do is think about what this one race meant for his life. And when you understand this, ask yourself "if I was a middle of the pack Kenyan 800m runner and I had "an opportunity", would I do the same"?
Because of that one performance at the Kenyan Trials, he is a Kenyan olympian in an event which historically has been arguably their toughest team to make. He is now at the University of Oregon, presumably on a full-ride, 4 year scholarship. If it is true he is on a six-figure NIL deal in US dollars, which would seem completely reasonable given that by pure performance he was arguably the best male track athlete in the entire NCAA last season (not sure what tops 1.42.66 - I can only think of Alekna being the WR holder in the discus but that has it's own story too doesn't it), that alone might be more money than could ever make in his entire life in Kenya as a 1.45 runner.
That race changed the trajectory of his life. If he runs that Kenyan final and runs 1.45 and finishes 7th where is he now?
So I ask you this question again, if you are him and somebody came to with "an opportunity" - would you take the risk knowing the (immense) plus side? Even if you take that opportunity and something goes wrong - what happens? What have you really lost? Nothing. And as of today that guy would never have to even touch an ibuprofen for the rest of his life and his life is on a completely different trajectory. He can run 1.46 for the rest of his college career and never even make the podium at an NCAA's and his life is infinitely better than what he left behind.
Is it now so implausible he could possible have "taken an opportunity" in one race? I'm not even sure if I would blame him if he did.
This post was edited 34 seconds after it was posted.
What you need to do is think about what this one race meant for his life. And when you understand this, ask yourself "if I was a middle of the pack Kenyan 800m runner and I had "an opportunity", would I do the same"?
Because of that one performance at the Kenyan Trials, he is a Kenyan olympian in an event which historically has been arguably their toughest team to make. He is now at the University of Oregon, presumably on a full-ride, 4 year scholarship. If it is true he is on a six-figure NIL deal in US dollars, which would seem completely reasonable given that by pure performance he was arguably the best male track athlete in the entire NCAA last season (not sure what tops 1.42.66 - I can only think of Alekna being the WR holder in the discus but that has it's own story too doesn't it), that alone might be more money than could ever make in his entire life in Kenya as a 1.45 runner.
That race changed the trajectory of his life. If he runs that Kenyan final and runs 1.45 and finishes 7th where is he now?
So I ask you this question again, if you are him and somebody came to with "an opportunity" - would you take the risk knowing the (immense) plus side? Even if you take that opportunity and something goes wrong - what happens? What have you really lost? Nothing. And as of today that guy would never have to even touch an ibuprofen for the rest of his life and his life is on a completely different trajectory. He can run 1.46 for the rest of his college career and never even make the podium at an NCAA's and his life is infinitely better than what he left behind.
Is it now so implausible he could possible have "taken an opportunity" in one race? I'm not even sure if I would blame him if he did.
Well it is not important whether you would blame him or not. But to your point, one could use this same argument, for example, about Cole Hocker in the Olympics last year, or Hoey this year, and many others, not always to the same degree in terms of the transformation of one’s life trajectory, but different in degree but not necessarily in kind.
I've noticed that 800 runners, seemingly more than any other event, make enormous, giant leaps that are often never replicated again. I don't know why. Just a perfect storm, I guess. One story I always remember was a freshman in NY that split 1:47.99 on a 4x800, and never ended up breaking 1:50 the rest of his HS career.
Well it is not important whether you would blame him or not. But to your point, one could use this same argument, for example, about Cole Hocker in the Olympics last year, or Hoey this year, and many others, not always to the same degree in terms of the transformation of one’s life trajectory, but different in degree but not necessarily in kind.
But not really because those guys at least have career bodies of work that support the "big performance" or the "outlier" (if their PR's even are that).
Hocker made an Olympic final at age 20 and ran 3.31 in it. He made a world final at age 22 and ran 3.30.70 in it. With him in particular, it's easy to forget how little exposure he had had to a top class, fast paced DL style races that really gave a true indication of his ability prior to Paris. Since turning pro in 21 to the beginning of Paris, you know how many DL 1500's he had raced? None in 21, none in 22, three in 2023 and one in 2024. But more importantly since Paris he has absolutely showed that performance wasn't implausible at all. He ran sub 3.30 in Lausanne, sub 3.31 in Zurich and Brussels and this year ran 7.23.14 for 3000m which is actually a marginally superior performance to that 1500m. The comparable situation for Hocker is if he hadn't made a world or olympic final prior to Paris, had a PR of 3.32, won Paris in 3.27 and then was running 7.34. Final point - Cole Hocker makes more money now as the Olympic Champion, but even if he had finished 4 or 5th in that race he was still doing plenty okay on a fat Nike deal that was multiple times the average American household income to begin with.
With Hoey it's even a bigger stretch to compare the two. Yeah he just ran 1.42.44 but he ran 1.43.90 and 1.43.24 indoors plus won a world title and just backed up his PR by running 1.43.00 in Paris. So I don't really see anything unusual there at all. You can argue that its Hoeys ascension to this level that is suspicious but I believe there are a number of important details it's not - many of which are outlined in Gaults feature articles about him and his new coach Rinaldi.
So if Kidali had a similar "coaching breakthrough" (almost to the same level at 1.42.66) why has he not been able to get even remotely close to this and maintain it like Hoey has? The "school life" argument is nonsense - he wasn't at school during the Olympics when he became the only sub 1.43 runner in history that has competed at an Olympic Games to not even make it past the heats. Kinyamal who was only just ahead of him in that trials final in Nairobi, missed out on a spot in the final by 13/100th's of a second. Wanyoni nearly broke the WR in the final. Back to school here in the US, is Jerry Schumacher that bad of a coach he took a 1.42.66 22 year old Kenyan and turned him into a guy that needed to throw himself up the final 100m and dive across the line just to make an NCAA final? Say what you want about JS - he's not that bad a coach.
It's not even the numbers, it's just the eye test. People are going crazy about Habz running 3.27.56 but that is infinitely more believable performance than what Kidali has done and that is saying something.
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Well it is not important whether you would blame him or not. But to your point, one could use this same argument, for example, about Cole Hocker in the Olympics last year, or Hoey this year, and many others, not always to the same degree in terms of the transformation of one’s life trajectory, but different in degree but not necessarily in kind.
But not really because those guys at least have career bodies of work that support the "big performance" or the "outlier" (if their PR's even are that).
Hocker made an Olympic final at age 20 and ran 3.31 in it. He made a world final at age 22 and ran 3.30.70 in it. With him in particular, it's easy to forget how little exposure he had had to a top class, fast paced DL style races that really gave a true indication of his ability prior to Paris. Since turning pro in 21 to the beginning of Paris, you know how many DL 1500's he had raced? None in 21, none in 22, three in 2023 and one in 2024. But more importantly since Paris he has absolutely showed that performance wasn't implausible at all. He ran sub 3.30 in Lausanne, sub 3.31 in Zurich and Brussels and this year ran 7.23.14 for 3000m which is actually a marginally superior performance to that 1500m. The comparable situation for Hocker is if he hadn't made a world or olympic final prior to Paris, had a PR of 3.32, won Paris in 3.27 and then was running 7.34. Final point - Cole Hocker makes more money now as the Olympic Champion, but even if he had finished 4 or 5th in that race he was still doing plenty okay on a fat Nike deal that was multiple times the average American household income to begin with.
With Hoey it's even a bigger stretch to compare the two. Yeah he just ran 1.42.44 but he ran 1.43.90 and 1.43.24 indoors plus won a world title and just backed up his PR by running 1.43.00 in Paris. So I don't really see anything unusual there at all. You can argue that its Hoeys ascension to this level that is suspicious but I believe there are a number of important details it's not - many of which are outlined in Gaults feature articles about him and his new coach Rinaldi.
So if Kidali had a similar "coaching breakthrough" (almost to the same level at 1.42.66) why has he not been able to get even remotely close to this and maintain it like Hoey has? The "school life" argument is nonsense - he wasn't at school during the Olympics when he became the only sub 1.43 runner in history that has competed at an Olympic Games to not even make it past the heats. Kinyamal who was only just ahead of him in that trials final in Nairobi, missed out on a spot in the final by 13/100th's of a second. Wanyoni nearly broke the WR in the final. Back to school here in the US, is Jerry Schumacher that bad of a coach he took a 1.42.66 22 year old Kenyan and turned him into a guy that needed to throw himself up the final 100m and dive across the line just to make an NCAA final? Say what you want about JS - he's not that bad a coach.
It's not even the numbers, it's just the eye test. People are going crazy about Habz running 3.27.56 but that is infinitely more believable performance than what Kidali has done and that is saying something.
Well your points are fair, and yet I am curious about his training environment at home, and that could even include his diet, and other aspects as far as his sleep, his routine and yes maybe even something beyond that. He ran 3:38 and 1:45 this year, so not a total disaster. Like when Peter Rono won gold many tried to say it was a fluke. I never really subscribed to that, but it seems to have been an almost perfect race from Peter when it mattered most, and with the competition perhaps not at its peak. I think the jury is still out on KK, but it will be interesting to see what happens next. Does he run cross country? Like will Koech continue to run like he did in Paris, or close to it? We shall see.
Well it is not important whether you would blame him or not. But to your point, one could use this same argument, for example, about Cole Hocker in the Olympics last year, or Hoey this year, and many others, not always to the same degree in terms of the transformation of one’s life trajectory, but different in degree but not necessarily in kind.
But not really because those guys at least have career bodies of work that support the "big performance" or the "outlier" (if their PR's even are that).
Hocker made an Olympic final at age 20 and ran 3.31 in it. He made a world final at age 22 and ran 3.30.70 in it. With him in particular, it's easy to forget how little exposure he had had to a top class, fast paced DL style races that really gave a true indication of his ability prior to Paris. Since turning pro in 21 to the beginning of Paris, you know how many DL 1500's he had raced? None in 21, none in 22, three in 2023 and one in 2024. But more importantly since Paris he has absolutely showed that performance wasn't implausible at all. He ran sub 3.30 in Lausanne, sub 3.31 in Zurich and Brussels and this year ran 7.23.14 for 3000m which is actually a marginally superior performance to that 1500m. The comparable situation for Hocker is if he hadn't made a world or olympic final prior to Paris, had a PR of 3.32, won Paris in 3.27 and then was running 7.34. Final point - Cole Hocker makes more money now as the Olympic Champion, but even if he had finished 4 or 5th in that race he was still doing plenty okay on a fat Nike deal that was multiple times the average American household income to begin with.
With Hoey it's even a bigger stretch to compare the two. Yeah he just ran 1.42.44 but he ran 1.43.90 and 1.43.24 indoors plus won a world title and just backed up his PR by running 1.43.00 in Paris. So I don't really see anything unusual there at all. You can argue that its Hoeys ascension to this level that is suspicious but I believe there are a number of important details it's not - many of which are outlined in Gaults feature articles about him and his new coach Rinaldi.
So if Kidali had a similar "coaching breakthrough" (almost to the same level at 1.42.66) why has he not been able to get even remotely close to this and maintain it like Hoey has? The "school life" argument is nonsense - he wasn't at school during the Olympics when he became the only sub 1.43 runner in history that has competed at an Olympic Games to not even make it past the heats. Kinyamal who was only just ahead of him in that trials final in Nairobi, missed out on a spot in the final by 13/100th's of a second. Wanyoni nearly broke the WR in the final. Back to school here in the US, is Jerry Schumacher that bad of a coach he took a 1.42.66 22 year old Kenyan and turned him into a guy that needed to throw himself up the final 100m and dive across the line just to make an NCAA final? Say what you want about JS - he's not that bad a coach.
It's not even the numbers, it's just the eye test. People are going crazy about Habz running 3.27.56 but that is infinitely more believable performance than what Kidali has done and that is saying something.
This is gonna sound crazy, but are we sure the Kidali that ran 1:42 and the Kidali at Oregon are the same person? Like, I quite literally mean, are they physically the same person? Are we sure the Kidali in Oregon isn't some sub-elite lookalike or doppelganger or that Kidali has an identical twin hiding out somewhere that he's sending to school? Like I know this all sounds insane but i'm 100% serious because I don't know what other explanations there could be.
This is gonna sound crazy, but are we sure the Kidali that ran 1:42 and the Kidali at Oregon are the same person? Like, I quite literally mean, are they physically the same person? Are we sure the Kidali in Oregon isn't some sub-elite lookalike or doppelganger or that Kidali has an identical twin hiding out somewhere that he's sending to school? Like I know this all sounds insane but i'm 100% serious because I don't know what other explanations there could be.
I will be honest, by about the 3rd time I watched this guy run an 800m race here in the US alone, I started to make a list in my head of what on earth could possibly be at play here.
a) There was some epic timing malfunction in the Kenyan trial race and was actually a 1.44 race where he came in at 1.45ish - but Thoughtsleader posted the race and it appears like the timing is accurate and he's only he's only like 3 meters behind Wanyoni at the finish
b) It's not the same guy (what you're saying) - did they mix him up with Cheminingwa who ran 1.43 just before the trials and then ran twice under 1.43 at the Paris and Monaco DL's? But again, the footage of the race I'm pretty sure shows that it's him.
c) the thing a lot of people don't seem to want to entertain - presumably because he's here in the US taking up a scholarship that could be going to another hard-working kid and also banking a nice little six figure NIL deal powered by Uncle Phil.
But to your question, no as crazy as that sounds I don't think it's crazy at all. If I hadn't seen the race footage I wouldn't have discounted anything.
I will be honest, by about the 3rd time I watched this guy run an 800m race here in the US alone, I started to make a list in my head of what on earth could possibly be at play here.
a) There was some epic timing malfunction in the Kenyan trial race and was actually a 1.44 race where he came in at 1.45ish - but Thoughtsleader posted the race and it appears like the timing is accurate and he's only he's only like 3 meters behind Wanyoni at the finish
b) It's not the same guy (what you're saying) - did they mix him up with Cheminingwa who ran 1.43 just before the trials and then ran twice under 1.43 at the Paris and Monaco DL's? But again, the footage of the race I'm pretty sure shows that it's him.
c) the thing a lot of people don't seem to want to entertain - presumably because he's here in the US taking up a scholarship that could be going to another hard-working kid and also banking a nice little six figure NIL deal powered by Uncle Phil.
But to your question, no as crazy as that sounds I don't think it's crazy at all. If I hadn't seen the race footage I wouldn't have discounted anything.
I think he just pulled the performance completely out of his arse. That’s all I got. I do think he has a level to go up, but I suspect he develops into a good college guy who dips into the 1:43s on occasion later on. I don’t see him as a regular 1:42 guy. He doesn’t look it.
Do any of you know anything about Aaron Kemei Cheminingwa? The reason I ask is because he ran 1:42.08 and 1:42.13 last year, but this seems to be quite unusual territory for him as he more often runs around 1:45. Now this year he has run 1:45 and he has run 46.88A this year. But is his situation at all curious to any of you? I am not implying that it should be, but 1:42 guys often run slower.
Do any of you know anything about Aaron Kemei Cheminingwa? The reason I ask is because he ran 1:42.08 and 1:42.13 last year, but this seems to be quite unusual territory for him as he more often runs around 1:45. Now this year he has run 1:45 and he has run 46.88A this year. But is his situation at all curious to any of you? I am not implying that it should be, but 1:42 guys often run slower.
Yes he’s been discussed extensively here. He shows more talent than Kidali to be frank. Even this year, he ran 1:45 at Kip Keino but went out in 1:15-6. He figures to be more competitive at Kenyan Trials.
Just checking in on KK - didn't see him at NCAA indoors this season, anyone out west have an update on the fastest 800m man in the NCAA?
He went home to Kenya - no explanation as to why. He hasn't raced - no explanation as to why - but it could be as simple as winter racing and indoor season aren't popular in Kenya.
Perhaps he and Parker Valby will make their 2026 outdoor debuts at the same meet lol.