I think the W analysis is pretty straightforward. We saw the matchup at Nuttycombe. Tuohy should beat Stearns by 4-5 places I would think. Chmiel should beat Larkin by a similar amount. But Reiss should beat Stephens by 5- 10 places (it was 4 at Nuttycombe). If Bush can match Stephens, Upshaw will still probably beat her by 5 places (it was 2 at Nuttycombe). And Bush was 10 sec back of Stephens Friday. But most importantly Moore or maybe Smee or Grice will beat NC St 5th by a bunch unless Tyynismaa can somehow match Stephens. Quarzo was 10 sec back of Bush (20 sec back of Stephens) at ACC and Hartman was further back. Hartman was 15 sec back of Stephens at Nuttycombe. So unless Tyynismaa can fill the 4-5 gap NAU seems like they have a clear path to vistory. Narrow margins at some places but so far not at 5th runner.
Chmiel only beating Larkin by 4-5 spots just because of Nuttycombe? The disrespect is wild. Chmiel is one of the first names you put down to be top 10 at nationals and has been there 3 straight years. What has Larkin done to be in that category? She was top 10 at nuttycombe last year too and then at nationals Chmiel was 3rd and Larkin was out of the top 25. People are still counting out Bush? After watching how much better Bush looked at ACC's than Joe Piane i think she'll be back in form at Nationals. I have way more faith in Bush being top 20 at nationals than Stephens. Stephens beat her by almost a full minute at Joe Piane over 5k but the gap was only 9 seconds over 6k a month later and its not like Stephens ran poorly. 3 more weeks i see Bush back at full form.
Its just like the NAU men last year. People counted them out because they had a few slower races at meaningless invitationals and then when it mattered most they beat everyone once again and the runners that historically had been better were better once again.
I don't see Chmiel at 2 in team scoring this year...Valby/Tuohy/Doris/Hilda maybe Markezich/Ramsden. A lot more talent at top this year I think. But I do see Larkin as 10-15. But that is not the key in any case. If the NAU runners are 15-25 instead of 10-20 that does start to change the game a bit. NC St does need 5th runner at 30 at worst and so far no indication they have that. NAU's top 6 have been rock solid so far, and the 5-6 spread pretty small.
Chmiel only beating Larkin by 4-5 spots just because of Nuttycombe? The disrespect is wild. Chmiel is one of the first names you put down to be top 10 at nationals and has been there 3 straight years. What has Larkin done to be in that category? She was top 10 at nuttycombe last year too and then at nationals Chmiel was 3rd and Larkin was out of the top 25. People are still counting out Bush? After watching how much better Bush looked at ACC's than Joe Piane i think she'll be back in form at Nationals. I have way more faith in Bush being top 20 at nationals than Stephens. Stephens beat her by almost a full minute at Joe Piane over 5k but the gap was only 9 seconds over 6k a month later and its not like Stephens ran poorly. 3 more weeks i see Bush back at full form.
Its just like the NAU men last year. People counted them out because they had a few slower races at meaningless invitationals and then when it mattered most they beat everyone once again and the runners that historically had been better were better once again.
I don't see Chmiel at 2 in team scoring this year...Valby/Tuohy/Doris/Hilda maybe Markezich/Ramsden. A lot more talent at top this year I think. But I do see Larkin as 10-15. But that is not the key in any case. If the NAU runners are 15-25 instead of 10-20 that does start to change the game a bit. NC St does need 5th runner at 30 at worst and so far no indication they have that. NAU's top 6 have been rock solid so far, and the 5-6 spread pretty small.
I have Tuohy, Valby, Doris 1-3 whatever order you want to assign them. Next group feels like Chmiel, Stearns, Hilda, Roe, Markezich, Maatoug, Ramsden. Maatoug just got Chmiel at ACC's but Chmiel has raced all the others in that group except Roe and hasn't lost to any of the others yet this year (3-0 this year against Markezich).
My breakdown is that it i agree with you that a lot of pressure is on Tyynismaa (fairly or unfairly) but i just have more faith in the experience of the other NC State runners and less faith in the NAU runners: NC State NAU Tuohy 1-3 Stearns 4-10 Chmiel 4-10 Gracelyn Larkin 15-20 Bush 18-25 Aliandrea Upshaw 15-20 Stephens 20-30 Annika Reiss 20-25 Tyynismaa ??? Keira Moore 25-30 Hartman 40-60 Ruby Smee 25-30 So its simple to me. If Tyynismaa runs with Stephens NC State wins. If she doesnt then NAU wins big.
1) Nico Young - Brian Musau (advantage Young, experience, plus the way Young and Bosley work together up front. though Musau has looked incredibly comfortable this year considering its his first season. He almost looks bored crossing the finish line, like these races are too easy for him)
2) Drew Bosley - Alex Maier (coin toss, both experienced, Bosley likes to front run and push the pace, could hurt his kick in end. Maier should run like Graham Blanks did at Nuttycombe. Draft the entire race, once he sees Bosley is fatigued go for it)
3) Aaron Las Herras - Fouad Messaundi (slight edge to Fouad, though Las Herras is familiar with Virginia course. NAU's group mentality will help Herras. he needs to stay in touch with Young/Bosley. If they get away from him it could be trouble. Problem is Fouad will be doing the exact same thing. will come down to kick)
4) Santiago Prosser - Will Muirhead (slight edge Prosser. if Muirhead sticks with Fouad it'll help him. Muirhead needs a good start and force Prosser to chase. OKState has guys running 6-7 who could step up and beat Prosser, wheras I don't think NAU 6-7 guys can fill in if Prosser falters. they'd have to run the races of their lives.
5) Brodey Hasty - Jonas Price (I can't bet against Hasty's kick. the problem here is Hasty often starts in the middle as a pacesetter for his team. if Price has a good start and runs up with Fouad it might be too much of a gap for Hasty to overcome. just like in 2022, this is where the team race is probably won.
6-7 plus alternate) Corey Gorgas/Theo Quax/Kang Nuoak - Dennis Kiptenigh/Alex Stitt/Victor Shisama - have to give this to OkState. I could totally see Kiptenigh getting up to a 4th or 3rd spot and stealing the race. Gorgas has run well this season, if he sticks with Las Herras like he did at Nuttycombe it would be huge for NAU. but it's 10k, not 8.
I predict another tiebreaker with multiple protests.
It's unfortunate that Dave Smith has decided to take this approach. He already could develop talent. Look at how well Maier, Price, and Muirhead ran. But he was impatient at the national title drought and he had to get sure things, already developed, and not depend on 18-20 year olds actually getting to that level under his guidance. He has a likely national championship team here but we've said that before with BYU and other teams against NAU and they have been beaten at nationals just once with Mike Smith.
1 Young over Musau. Musau ran an incredible 22:46 as a freshman but he wasn't far ahead of a bunch of other guys, so this was partly a shorter or faster course effect. From this, you still don't know what Musau's top end is. Either way, this isn't going to be the major difference maker unless Musau fades at 10k, because Young will finish very close to the top, maybe finally win it, and Musau looks like a top five guy.
2 Bosley over Maier. This isn't a toss-up. Bosley was third last year after pushing the pace much of the way and he improved after that, getting the college 3k record. He had a strong victory at the Panorama Farms Invitational, so he knows the nationals course and is well suited to it. Maier is a lock for top ten. Their track times don't prove much. Maier has run 7:43/13:11/28:12. Bosley has run 7:36/13:13 but I believe he would be in the 27:40s at worst for 10k, because he's right there with Young, who previously paced much of a 27:40 a year or two ago for his teammate.
3 Messaoudi over Las Heras. This one should be close but who knows? Messaoudi was 12th last year at nationals and then ran 7:43, won nationals at 3k indoors and was part of the winning DMR before running 3:35 outdoors and finishing 9th at nationals in the 1500m. Las Heras was 26th. He looked good at conference. He should be a top fifteen guy after a season training with this team at altitude. Edge Messaoudi, though he's a better track runner than xc.
4 Prosser over Muirhead or Shi+sama. Shi+sama was well back, as was Kipngetich, so who knows how they will run. I assume Shi+sama will move up into the 20s at worst; last year he moved up in the course of the race to 31st. Muirhead had a very good Big 12 meet and has improved enormously since track. He has just a 13:55 pr and 30:31 10k xc but was 140th at XC nationals last year. So, there is that doubt whether he will be able to rise 110 to 120 places this year.
5 Kipngetich or Price over Gorgas, Hasty, Quax, or Nyoak. Price's track times (8:11) are not going to predict he takes this spot. Kipngetich, on the other hand, won the Cowboy invite and then didn't run well at conference. He could well be a lot better by the end, so at his best, he should give the Cowboys the winning margin here, but the NAU fifth man this year will not be worse than 30th. If there is a tie again, NAU has a good shot at taking the majority of the head to head battles of 1-5. Honestly, this is a bit of an uphill battle for NAU because they have two great ones and then there is a dropoff to las Heras and a bigger dropoff after that unless Prosser improves once again. 18th last year was very solid for him. Gorgas is running much better than before. Hasty ran a 23:13 in a smaller race at the end of September to win (Dave Martinez?). Quax was very good at Panorama but less good recently. Nyoak was solid at conference. Ultimately, if OSU runs to potential, they should win with under 60. (4-6-10-17-19=56). But you know that NAU will run to potential and so at this point I still have to give them the crown. (2-3-13-15-22)=55
on paper OkState is the favorite then you start peeling back the layers and it becomes a headscratcher. Kipngetich and Musau put OKState on another level but have only run 8K's so far and surprisingly Kipgetich underperformed at the Big 12 championship which seemed totally out of place considering how well he ran his first race. how will they do at 10K in freezing cold temperatures. Have to add Shisama to this, he's been a real mystery. so up and down.
and you just know Bosley and Young take off like last year. Do Maier and Messaudi go with them or hang back and try to reel them in. Last year they ran a conservative first 6K and slowly caught the field near the end. it would have worked if not for Hasty's kick. I could totally see OkState repeating last years strategy. if Musau and Kipgetich can stick up front with the NAU duo it won't matter how many runners Hasty passes.
despite what OKState does Prosser and Las Herras have to perform. would love to see them run like Young and Bosley do, drafting off each other, taking turns out front. its just a matter of both of them having great days. at Nuttycombe they did this for awhile, even Gorgas/Quax were with them. they fell apart in the final sprint, not sure if it was the weather or if they were so far out front they just coasted.
I don't see Chmiel at 2 in team scoring this year...Valby/Tuohy/Doris/Hilda maybe Markezich/Ramsden. A lot more talent at top this year I think. But I do see Larkin as 10-15. But that is not the key in any case. If the NAU runners are 15-25 instead of 10-20 that does start to change the game a bit. NC St does need 5th runner at 30 at worst and so far no indication they have that. NAU's top 6 have been rock solid so far, and the 5-6 spread pretty small.
I have Tuohy, Valby, Doris 1-3 whatever order you want to assign them. Next group feels like Chmiel, Stearns, Hilda, Roe, Markezich, Maatoug, Ramsden. Maatoug just got Chmiel at ACC's but Chmiel has raced all the others in that group except Roe and hasn't lost to any of the others yet this year (3-0 this year against Markezich).
My breakdown is that it i agree with you that a lot of pressure is on Tyynismaa (fairly or unfairly) but i just have more faith in the experience of the other NC State runners and less faith in the NAU runners: NC State NAU Tuohy 1-3 Stearns 4-10 Chmiel 4-10 Gracelyn Larkin 15-20 Bush 18-25 Aliandrea Upshaw 15-20 Stephens 20-30 Annika Reiss 20-25 Tyynismaa ??? Keira Moore 25-30 Hartman 40-60 Ruby Smee 25-30 So its simple to me. If Tyynismaa runs with Stephens NC State wins. If she doesnt then NAU wins big.
I don't think we disagree that much. But Upshaw has not beat Reiss yet this there and Reiss/Larkin have been very close and finished either side of each other. Reiss also beat Stephens by 6 seconds. Things can swing with tight differentials and with the # of runners at that point very close can mean a few places but purely by numbers there is not much difference. But bottom line NC St does need Tuohy/Chmiel totalling 10 or less and 3 more totalling maybe 80 at most. Maatoug probably won't count in team scoring and I don't see Roe in the top 10. But she has only run one race (and won) so hard to tell.
wish the moderator would create an "NAU/NCState Women's XC head to head breakdown" thread so we can separate these two topics. i'd do it but am too lazy to put it all together.
one factor I am considering in placing Chmiel is unlike last year the back end of this race is not that tough - from 4K until that final little hill near the finish is pretty flat and fast which probably favors other runners.
my big fear is that the 2 Kenyan ringers help Dave Smith win a XC Championship and it opens the floodgates. There are probably dozens of 20 year old African runners with NCAA eligibility and dubious SAT scores that could completely alter the face of XC and transform any mediocre team into a title contender overnight.
and BYU has had missions in Africa since the 1940's and could easily have taken this route before anyone else. No way they would stoop to this. they'd rather come in 4th with homegrown mormons.
You have to be in high school…
...
Recruting East Africans has been present in the NCAA for years. Smith just made things work and got an actual pro level athlete (but he’s on the same level as the top guys as it is). There’s so many uneducated people out there it is spectacular. Smith is doing what everybody else has been doing- he’s just is an exceptional coach. If this scares you, you worry way too much about things outside of your control for your own good. I enjoyed racing against foreigners in the NCAA. It made me better and not settle for competing against less competition.
Nothing in life is fair. Wait until you get into the job market. You’re competing against adults of all ages from everywhere around the world kiddo.
It's funny how people get so upset about BYU guys going on missions and being two years older when they finally start competing. Their freshmen are probably younger than the majority of the foreign born Kenyans like Kiptenich, Musau, Shi+sama, etc. I remember how upset people were when Mantz won in 2021 and he was literally younger than the two guys right behind him (Kiptoo and Kioko). It just seems like there is a double standard for the posters on here. You're all ok with old foreigners being brought in, but then everyone flips out about American born BYU kids being 2 years older. Nobody is breaking NCAA rules, so everyone needs to relax and quit whining whenever BYU does well.
other factors to consider aside from the ones I mentioned at the start of thread:
RUNNING 10K - advantage Lumberjacks. They train at altitude and do better on longer runs. Their overperformance at pretty much every 10K since Smith took over is evidence of that.
COACHING - advantage Lumberjacks. Mike Smith knows what he's doing. He trains his guys for this specific event. He maximizes his players strengths and knows how to position his team like a chess player. This isn't to take anything away from Dave Smith. His plan last year to start slow and reel the field in was a master stroke and would have worked if not for Brodey Hasty's kick.
INTANGIBLES - there are 250 runners not wearing an OKSt or NAU kit who don't give a rats a$s about them who could easily gum up the works. Is Ky Robinson this years Charles Hicks. Does he take off and tack on more points to NAU's team total. Graham Blanks, Rocky Hanson, Habtom Samuel, Parker Wolfe and probably a dozen others. Do they run aggressive races and force some of OK State and NAU 3-5 runners to go faster than they'd like. How are the 2 OKState Kenyan freshman running in traffic. So far Brian Musau has comfortably front led - how will he react to being in a pack, especially around some of the tight turns in Charlottesville.
The guy is only 18 years old. He was in the U18 Kenya team in Zambia during the Africa juniors' championship. It's crazy nobody cares to mention white foreigners competing in the NCAA.
wish the moderator would create an "NAU/NCState Women's XC head to head breakdown" thread so we can separate these two topics. i'd do it but am too lazy to put it all together.
NCAA Women's thread already created . . . has been ongoing for several days now . . . see here:
NC State & NAU women's teams have been 1-2/2-1 since preseason and have been analyzed ad infinitum.However, that's all changed following today's Big-12 meet on Iowa State's hilly xc-only course.Ok State had been ranked 3rd al...
Seems like NAU race strategy could be fairly obvious. Why wouldn't Nico/Drew take it out and try to gap the field like last year. Has worked well for NAU (Baxter/Day '17) and makes sense weather permitting. I would trust the Nico/Drew duo to execute well working with each other and can't quite imagine who would go with like Hicks last year. The next group of NAU boys would pack up and hunt down guys who go out fast (off the chase pack). Maybe ALH aims to sit in the chase pack if they're confident in his fitness. The strategy for OSU is far more up in the air. Would any of their guys go with a hot pace from the jump? I see it as more beneficial for Musau, Maier, Messaoudi to stay in/command the chase pack. Could see Blanks/Robinson & maybe another wild card possibly taking 3,4,5 if the chase pack hangs around until 3/2k to go with NY/DB clear ahead (who could hawk these guys down barring one/both blow up?). If the OSU 1-3 can finish top 10 with Kipngetich/Muirhead/Price/VS packing up and keeping an eye on NAU's chase pack, seems like a good strategy. I think this really helps someone like Kipngetich coming off a poor conf. race to be able to run with his teammates. (I also don't think we should be too worked up over Big 12. Seems like OSU had that on lock and weren't throwing everything that had, esp. if they new Clinger was going to DNS. Could have had held guys back a little because Nov. 18 is when it matters)
So:
NAU: 1,2,12, 20,25= 60 (generous banking 1-2?)
OSU: 6,7,8,15,21= 57 (generous on the back end?)
This is going to be a close one if each team can have at least an A-/B+ day.
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