NAU/OKState XC head to head breakdown

Should be a good race between two great programs.

Good analysis.

I think you’re underrating Fouad Messaoudi. He was 12th last year and is the NCAA 3k champ. I expect him to be top-10 and could put some distance on Las Heras.
After Nuttycomb, I think most people were ready to hand NAU the title but I don’t think it’ll be so easy. I also don’t think we really know what Brian Musau’s upside is. He could win the whole thing. If Musau wins, Maier and Messaoudi are top 10 and Bosley has a little blow-up like at Nuttycomb, I think Ok State wins it.

yeah, I think the big swings in team points will be in the 4-5 runners.

I don't think Bosley blows up again. He slipped badly going downhill at Nuttycombe which affected his stride, plus he led the entire first 5K of the race and nobody else took a turn up front. no way that happens again. i think he finishes at least Top 5. (for NAU's sake he BETTER), anything less they may be toast.

I think OSU is winning as well. NAU is still better than they were last year, not putting them down. But OSU is insane. 7 guys who are in All-American shape. Victor S clearly did a threshold effort today- 3:06/km for 8k, he can do that over half marathon. He seemed to run even splits after the 1k.

Maybe we should all hype up OSU so Mike smith can work his magic again and do the unthinkable. Because his guys are going to have to against this Dave smith team!!

I think you are being too generous with NAU. Massoudi, Maier and the two OSU Kenyan Freshman will be top 10 at nationals. Their 4th African Shi$sama top 20. OSU will win by around 20 pts over NAU.

What Dave Smith has done over off season changed the game in XC. A major coach like Smith choosing to buy African talent and giving up on developing home grown could be the future of all major programs at NCAA. I hope not but NAU, Stanford, Colorado, etc. could just opt for importing an all Kenyan squad. A lot easier than taking a year or two to develop high school talent. Can you imagine a BYU top 5 from Kenya haha. That’s where we may be heading.

my big fear is that the 2 Kenyan ringers help Dave Smith win a XC Championship and it opens the floodgates. There are probably dozens of 20 year old African runners with NCAA eligibility and dubious SAT scores that could completely alter the face of XC and transform any mediocre team into a title contender overnight.

and BYU has had missions in Africa since the 1940's and could easily have taken this route before anyone else. No way they would stoop to this. they'd rather come in 4th with homegrown mormons.

You have to be in high school…

UTEP back in the 70’s

Alabama cross country the past few years

New Mexico

Coastal Carolina

Eastern Kentucky Univeristy

Utah Valley

Louisville

Arkansas

Recruting East Africans has been present in the NCAA for years. Smith just made things work and got an actual pro level athlete (but he’s on the same level as the top guys as it is). There’s so many uneducated people out there it is spectacular. Smith is doing what everybody else has been doing- he’s just is an exceptional coach. If this scares you, you worry way too much about things outside of your control for your own good. I enjoyed racing against foreigners in the NCAA. It made me better and not settle for competing against less competition.

Nothing in life is fair. Wait until you get into the job market. You’re competing against adults of all ages from everywhere around the world kiddo.

This is such a narrow viewpoint. Why do you see this differently than Stanford bringing in tons of "pro level" Australians in Ky Robinson or Amy Bunnage? Or NAU with their New Zealanders/South Africans? Did Providence or Tulsa or Iona bringing in very good Irish runners "open the floodgates"? I'm suspecting you just feel this way because they don't have Anglo last names (my charitable interpretation).

The NCAA is not a domestic only league and this is how it's always been - a mix of homegrown and international talent. The playing field is even in between the big players, and everyone is going by the same rules. Kudos to Dave Smith (and Mike Smith, and Ray Treacy, Mick Byrne, Ricardo Santos) for playing the game well.

Dennis Kipnegitch is definitely their number 3 runner behind Maier and Musau. He could also contend for the win on a good day. He did have a bad race and could blow up at Nationals.

I'd also put Shissama at 4/5 with Messaudi unless he has a bad race at sectionals to prove bad fitness.

Hasty and Prosser's true fitness is a bit unknown right now but on paper they are behind the top 5 of OKSt based on this year and track times. 10K could change it.

Price and Muirhead I'd bump down into the 6/7 spot. They had a good race today, but aren't proven yet.

They are definitely missing the presence of Leonard and right now. If they had him, I'd put the win heavily in favor of OKSt. Leonard would have maybe displaced NAU's 5th.

Scoring wise,

I'd put Young Bosley top 5, Las Herras 10-15, Prosser/Hasty 15-25 depending on fitness. Spitballing a score: 1,3,13,15,25= 57 points

Musau top 5, Maier/Kipnegitch 5-10, Shissama/Messaudi 15-20

Spitballing a score: 2,6,9,17,19= 53 points

Biggest variables:

Kipnegtich on a 10K. He looked underwhelming today and faded bad at the end so that could foretell troubles on a longer distance against experienced NCAA guys at NAU.

Shissama, Prosser, Hasty's placements. I'm more confident in Prosser overperforming than the other two guys. Hasty could also sink NAU, he hasn't had a good race yet this year, so performance at sectionals is key. Heck he might not even make the team, Gorgas/Quax/Nyoak have technically outperformed him this year. But I think Smith will want his experience even if he ends up placing 7th.

Other top guys messing with OKSt's scoring. Since I think NAU will put 2 in the top 5 vs 1 of OKSt, runners like Blanks, Robinson etc placing in the top 10-15 will affect OKSt's score more than NAU's.

Lack of home field advantage like OKSt had last year. Just less stress of travel and comfort level overall when you just have to bus like 20 minutes from your house or something to the course.

Hasty and Prosser both had underwhelming 2022 XC seasons until Nationals when they stepped up. Mike Smith has a way of training his guys to peak at the right time. and yes you can make a case for Gorgas/Quax/Nyoak replacing Hasty but I just dont see how Smith can leave Hasty out. he's been so clutch for him.

Kipnegtich is the real wild card. He has the ability to win the whole thing or come in 60th. He's this years Victor Shisama. He was supposed to be Dave Smiths ace in the hole in 2022 but ran out of gas and came in 31st.

and I agree, I could see the top 2 teams scoring in the 50's.

This is a really good thread. I’d love to see a John Gault analysis article on NAU vs OSU and NC State vs NAU at this stage following the conference meets.

yeah, that would be interesting but I don't think either team will announce their rosters until a day or so before race. OK States Top 7 is pretty much set whereas Mike Smith is a chess player and might swap things around at the last minute.

I think the W analysis is pretty straightforward. We saw the matchup at Nuttycombe. Tuohy should beat Stearns by 4-5 places I would think. Chmiel should beat Larkin by a similar amount. But Reiss should beat Stephens by 5- 10 places (it was 4 at Nuttycombe). If Bush can match Stephens, Upshaw will still probably beat her by 5 places (it was 2 at Nuttycombe). And Bush was 10 sec back of Stephens Friday. But most importantly Moore or maybe Smee or Grice will beat NC St 5th by a bunch unless Tyynismaa can somehow match Stephens. Quarzo was 10 sec back of Bush (20 sec back of Stephens) at ACC and Hartman was further back. Hartman was 15 sec back of Stephens at Nuttycombe. So unless Tyynismaa can fill the 4-5 gap NAU seems like they have a clear path to vistory. Narrow margins at some places but so far not at 5th runner.

One thing I haven’t seen mentioned - NAU have an advantage with the 10k distance due to altitude. Put that Ok State team at altitude all year, and they’d wash NAU. However, altitude is a powerful advantage, and more so in the 10k vs the 8k.
It’s going to be close!

For those who want to worry about unforeseen events, so far minimal flu activity in Arizona, Oklahoma and North Carolina but moderate in Florida (where NC State just stayed and ran).

there's always the intangibles - pressure on NAU being on the big stage with a relatively new group whereas NC State has been there before. But seeing how Mike Smith gets his mens team to execute on championship day, there's no reason to think he can't get the women's team to do the same.

NAU just does the pack running so well, they're so organized and efficient. they've done it at every race they've run so far. NC State is a bit more spread out. you have Tuohy and Chmiel and after that's it's every-women-for-herself. If Tuohy and Chmiel break away (which I suspect they will) I don't think NAU will care. they're all about team points. Maybe Elise Stearns lurks behind them but she's not gonna burn herself out to beat Tuohy/Valby.

much like the men's race, this will be decided by the 4-5 runners. the fact that Tynismaa didn't even finish the ACC Championship has to worry NC State. wonder if she runs at Regionals just to get her legs going.

It's unfortunate that Dave Smith has decided to take this approach. He already could develop talent. Look at how well Maier, Price, and Muirhead ran. But he was impatient at the national title drought and he had to get sure things, already developed, and not depend on 18-20 year olds actually getting to that level under his guidance. He has a likely national championship team here but we've said that before with BYU and other teams against NAU and they have been beaten at nationals just once with Mike Smith.

1 Young over Musau. Musau ran an incredible 22:46 as a freshman but he wasn't far ahead of a bunch of other guys, so this was partly a shorter or faster course effect. From this, you still don't know what Musau's top end is. Either way, this isn't going to be the major difference maker unless Musau fades at 10k, because Young will finish very close to the top, maybe finally win it, and Musau looks like a top five guy.

2 Bosley over Maier. This isn't a toss-up. Bosley was third last year after pushing the pace much of the way and he improved after that, getting the college 3k record. He had a strong victory at the Panorama Farms Invitational, so he knows the nationals course and is well suited to it. Maier is a lock for top ten. Their track times don't prove much. Maier has run 7:43/13:11/28:12. Bosley has run 7:36/13:13 but I believe he would be in the 27:40s at worst for 10k, because he's right there with Young, who previously paced much of a 27:40 a year or two ago for his teammate.

3 Messaoudi over Las Heras. This one should be close but who knows? Messaoudi was 12th last year at nationals and then ran 7:43, won nationals at 3k indoors and was part of the winning DMR before running 3:35 outdoors and finishing 9th at nationals in the 1500m. Las Heras was 26th. He looked good at conference. He should be a top fifteen guy after a season training with this team at altitude. Edge Messaoudi, though he's a better track runner than xc.

4 Prosser over Muirhead or Shi+sama. Shi+sama was well back, as was Kipngetich, so who knows how they will run. I assume Shi+sama will move up into the 20s at worst; last year he moved up in the course of the race to 31st. Muirhead had a very good Big 12 meet and has improved enormously since track. He has just a 13:55 pr and 30:31 10k xc but was 140th at XC nationals last year. So, there is that doubt whether he will be able to rise 110 to 120 places this year.

5 Kipngetich or Price over Gorgas, Hasty, Quax, or Nyoak. Price's track times (8:11) are not going to predict he takes this spot. Kipngetich, on the other hand, won the Cowboy invite and then didn't run well at conference. He could well be a lot better by the end, so at his best, he should give the Cowboys the winning margin here, but the NAU fifth man this year will not be worse than 30th. If there is a tie again, NAU has a good shot at taking the majority of the head to head battles of 1-5. Honestly, this is a bit of an uphill battle for NAU because they have two great ones and then there is a dropoff to las Heras and a bigger dropoff after that unless Prosser improves once again. 18th last year was very solid for him. Gorgas is running much better than before. Hasty ran a 23:13 in a smaller race at the end of September to win (Dave Martinez?). Quax was very good at Panorama but less good recently. Nyoak was solid at conference. Ultimately, if OSU runs to potential, they should win with under 60. (4-6-10-17-19=56). But you know that NAU will run to potential and so at this point I still have to give them the crown. (2-3-13-15-22)=55

You could argue that there's a dropoff from Prosser to Las Heras, based on last year's placing. However, Las Heras looks to be a solid third for NAU this year and Prosser fourth.

Chmiel only beating Larkin by 4-5 spots just because of Nuttycombe? The disrespect is wild. Chmiel is one of the first names you put down to be top 10 at nationals and has been there 3 straight years. What has Larkin done to be in that category? She was top 10 at nuttycombe last year too and then at nationals Chmiel was 3rd and Larkin was out of the top 25. People are still counting out Bush? After watching how much better Bush looked at ACC's than Joe Piane i think she'll be back in form at Nationals. I have way more faith in Bush being top 20 at nationals than Stephens. Stephens beat her by almost a full minute at Joe Piane over 5k but the gap was only 9 seconds over 6k a month later and its not like Stephens ran poorly. 3 more weeks i see Bush back at full form.

Its just like the NAU men last year. People counted them out because they had a few slower races at meaningless invitationals and then when it mattered most they beat everyone once again and the runners that historically had been better were better once again.