Banana Bread wrote:
Is this whole place deluded. Nobody respects how fast 26:17 is. It won't be beaten tomorrow. Chances are Joshua will fizzle out and we won't hear from him ever again in 2 years. He will decline and be beaten by Mo Farah in the Olympics for gold in 10,000m
He ran a perfectly paced 12:35 and 5k isn't even his best event. We all respect how fast 26:17, just like we respected 12:37. But he beat that and he's got a good shot at beating this one too.
Banana Bread wrote:
Is this whole place deluded. Nobody respects how fast 26:17 is. It won't be beaten tomorrow. Chances are Joshua will fizzle out and we won't hear from him ever again in 2 years. He will decline and be beaten by Mo Farah in the Olympics for gold in 10,000m
The fact that "Banana Bread" is your registered name says it all.
Mo Farah?????
"Go Run One"
Too many variables... a correct prediction is just luck.
But do you think these "likelihoods" are on?
I think he most likely breaks it (65% <=26:17), and not by a little. He just looked so easy in the 5000m.
time range likelihood
<25:50 1%
25:50 - 25:55 2%
25:56 - 25:59 7%
26:00 - 26:05 15%
26:06 - 26:10 25%
26:11 - 26:17 15%
26:18 - 26:25 12%
26:26 - 26:40 8%
26:41 - 26:50 6%
26:51 - 26:59 2%
>=27:00 1%
DNS, DNF 4%, 2%
jk0 wrote:
Too many variables... a correct prediction is just luck.
But do you think these "likelihoods" are on?
I think he most likely breaks it (65% <=26:17), and not by a little. He just looked so easy in the 5000m.
time range likelihood
<25:50 1%
25:50 - 25:55 2%
25:56 - 25:59 7%
26:00 - 26:05 15%
26:06 - 26:10 25%
26:11 - 26:17 15%
26:18 - 26:25 12%
26:26 - 26:40 8%
26:41 - 26:50 6%
26:51 - 26:59 2%
>=27:00 1%
DNS, DNF 4%, 2%
Well put, seems correct and in the ballpark
Remind me what happened to all those fast guys in the Paris 5,000m in 2012 that ran faster than Mo's PB
That is correct. Women’s 5000m 3:30 pm ET 10000m men’s 3:50 pm ET
Banana Bread wrote:
Remind me what happened to all those fast guys in the Paris 5,000m in 2012 that ran faster than Mo's PB
How delusional, my god, they were not multiple record holder, multiple world champions, huge prodigies and running at the highest level for half a decade already. Watch and cry tomorrow
jk0 wrote:
Too many variables... a correct prediction is just luck.
But do you think these "likelihoods" are on?
I think he most likely breaks it (65% <=26:17), and not by a little. He just looked so easy in the 5000m.
time range likelihood
<25:50 1%
25:50 - 25:55 2%
25:56 - 25:59 7%
26:00 - 26:05 15%
26:06 - 26:10 25%
26:11 - 26:17 15%
26:18 - 26:25 12%
26:26 - 26:40 8%
26:41 - 26:50 6%
26:51 - 26:59 2%
>=27:00 1%
DNS, DNF 4%, 2%
So basically you think 65% chance he breaks WR. Sounds about right.
how to watch? nbc gold?
Wonder if Bekele flew over from London to watch? Imagine if his calf magically healed up and he jumped in the race as a last-minute entrant, and won the damn thing in a new WR. Would expect nothing less from the GOAT.
xcvt wrote:
how to watch? nbc gold?
No. You can watch it for free right on LetsRun.com. We will be embedding it in the QOD spot.
More details here:
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2020/10/how-to-watch-joshua-cheptegeis-10000-meter-world-record-attempt-at-nn-valencia-wr-day/Full preview is here:
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2020/10/nn-valencia-wr-day-preview-cheptegei-kipchirchir-aims-to-join-us-sub-27-club/We need to work together for races that offer a betting market.
I think Cheptegei will run 26:12 negative splitting his second 5k at 12:59
It's pretty crazy that he is prolly better than 50/50 to break the record. But what ever happened to the surprise entrant he spoke of last month? I assumed it would be Kiplimo, but I guess it didn't work out.
I still wonder if it will really be so easy. Before his 5,000 record, we would have been saying that the weather is wrong. Don't warmish conditions hurt more in a 10,000 than a 5,000?
if he beats 26 then we will no for sure that the drugs testing regime is not fit for purpose.
if of course, and i am looking at you, coe, the purpose is to keep drugs out of sport and let clean athletes compete.......
Banana Bread wrote:
Is this whole place deluded. Nobody respects how fast 26:17 is. It won't be beaten tomorrow. Chances are Joshua will fizzle out and we won't hear from him ever again in 2 years. He will decline and be beaten by Mo Farah in the Olympics for gold in 10,000m
This your chance though, Banana Bread. Bekele will be depressed about losing his record and looking for anything, anyone to take his mind off it. That's where you come in. Say that you want to have dinner with him to talk to him about a business opportunity, perhaps investing in a hotel together. Then you flirt with him over dinner, play a little footsie and one thing leads to another.
i know you've been thinking about this for years, now's the best chance you're ever going to get.
nn sent me an email with a link to their youtube stream
here's your official stream:
Banana Bread wrote:
Is this whole place deluded. Nobody respects how fast 26:17 is. It won't be beaten tomorrow. Chances are Joshua will fizzle out and we won't hear from him ever again in 2 years. He will decline and be beaten by Mo Farah in the Olympics for gold in 10,000m
Two things: 1: Bekele is obviously the superior runner, more talent and could maybe have gone faster.
2: The new spring shoe technology helps massively, we’re probably talking 20-25 secs in a 10k. Not to mention the pacing lights, which gives you the perfect average pace to hold for a record attempt, an massive advantage compared to earlier. With these things Bekele could have gone 12:20-12:30 and 25:55-26:10.
IMO, he will beat it but not by much.
He prefers to be sure to beat it, than to attempt something too fast and fizzle out and then not even break the WR.
He will aim for 26:12-26:15.