Official OMG The 2018 Worlds Starts With Maybe The Best Race of the Year - The Women's 3000 is Loaded - Discussion Thread

Since Dibaba is the defending champion, does she count as one of Ethiopia's two entries?

How does it work? wrote:

Since Dibaba is the defending champion, does she count as one of Ethiopia's two entries?

She would count as one of Ethiopia's two entries regardless...

How does it work? wrote:

Since Dibaba is the defending champion, does she count as one of Ethiopia's two entries?

Defending champs only get byes at World Outdoors.

The only way a country gets three entries is if they have an athlete win the IAAF World Indoor Tour. Obiri won the tour but Kenya didn't use the extra spot. In fact, they didn't even use the second spot as Obiri is their only entrant in the 3k.

rojo wrote:

Our preview is now out. I almost overruled our staffer who wants us to pick against Dibaba. Who wins?

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/02/2018-world-indoors-w-3000-preview-genzebe-dibaba-shelby-houlihan-laura-muir/

Houlihan could easily win this race.

I certainly wouldn't put her as the favorite, but think about these two things:

1) Dibaba and Muir both have a tendency to go too hard too soon. Houlihan tends to time her kick very well, and not lead a step until she has to. She's the perfect type of athlete to surge by everyone in a race like that.

2) I don't think any of the other athletes have quite the sharp kick that Houlihan does. Obiri is fantastic at more of a progressive kick, but what if the race is slow until 200m to go? Women's races don't tend to do this as often as men's races, but if this does happen, I think Houlihan is the favorite. Houlihan's kick is also perfect for screaming by the last two athletes in the short home straight.

Again, I definitely don't consider Houlihan the favorite (Dibaba is). But Houlihan has been running amazing this year, is well suited for this race, and it's not at all hard to imagine a scenario where she wins.

rojo wrote:

Our preview is now out. I almost overruled our staffer who wants us to pick against Dibaba. Who wins?

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/02/2018-world-indoors-w-3000-preview-genzebe-dibaba-shelby-houlihan-laura-muir/

This isnt as obvious as it seems. Obiri ran an insane 3k split in the WC 5K with Ayana "pacing" - Also Obiri has repeatedly stated she going for the 5K WR this year AND is running the 10k at the Commonwealth Games in Australia this April, so she must have been working hard on both speed and endurance programmes. After the diamond league season she had last year and the mental strength she possesses I would favour Obiri for sure.

Genzebe does great things when the field is of "average" quality, - but she doesnt seem to present with the same steely determination and self confidence her sister does when it comes to the big occasions and the big guns are assembled around her.

I'm on board with this. If the race is under 8:30, Houlihan is silver or bronze; if it is over 8:30, gold or silver.

The best indicator is how shocked both she and Quigley were at her 1500 win. She is peaking perfectly.

This is pretty much spot on. G. Dibaba only wins a championship race when she is in much better shape than the rest of her rivals. Tirunesh is a racer; Genzebe is a time trialer.

My three:

1. Hassan

2. Obiri

3. Houlihan

I think Hassan will pull through with the win similar to what she did at Birmingham last year. Also going to guess that Klosterhalfen will medal. So 1st Hassan, 2nd Dibaba, 3rd Klosterhalfen. Probably going to be really off, but no harm in guessing.

Mccolgan should do well. 8:31 outdoor PB and in better shape than last year.

You would have to be a fool to pick against Dibaba, Obiri, or Hassan. Maybe Muir, if she finally figures out how to run a championship. They are on a different level of talent than the rest of the field. I don't care how good anybody else has looked during his indoor season, those 4 could run a lap ahead of the rest of this field. It's not even close.

vivalarepublica wrote:

You would have to be a fool to pick against Dibaba, Obiri, or Hassan. Maybe Muir, if she finally figures out how to run a championship. They are on a different level of talent than the rest of the field. I don't care how good anybody else has looked during his indoor season, those 4 could run a lap ahead of the rest of this field. It's not even close.

Majority of voters on the preview piece think that Houlihan will win a medal and more than twice as many people are backing her for the win than Laura Muir.

-Muir is world leader at 800m this year

-Muir is unbeaten this year, easily beating McColgan (8:31 runner) at national champs, no-one faster than 8:41 at US champs except SH

-Muir's best time over 3000m is nearly ten seconds faster than SH

-Muir's best times over 800m, 1500m and 5000m are much faster than SH

-Muir was 7 places and 14 seconds ahead of SH at the World Champs 5000m last summer

Yes I noticed that but its mainly US people voting...

having said that, the US ladies have had the last laugh over Laura once or twice, despite my yelling loudly at the tv.

Dibaba, hassan and then bronce is wide open

The Scot wrote:

fledermaus wrote:

Majority of voters on the preview piece think that Houlihan will win a medal and more than twice as many people are backing her for the win than Laura Muir.

-Muir is world leader at 800m this year

-Muir is unbeaten this year, easily beating McColgan (8:31 runner) at national champs, no-one faster than 8:41 at US champs except SH

-Muir's best time over 3000m is nearly ten seconds faster than SH

-Muir's best times over 800m, 1500m and 5000m are much faster than SH

-Muir was 7 places and 14 seconds ahead of SH at the World Champs 5000m last summer

Yes I noticed that but its mainly US people voting...

having said that, the US ladies have had the last laugh over Laura once or twice, despite my yelling loudly at the tv.

The race prediction votes on LRC tend to seem quite rational though. Most people are vaguely unhappy with seeing Genzebe Dibaba winning after Sabadell, but generally are still predicting her to win.

Houlihan has looked really good this indoor season, but she's been sprinting past Colleen Quigley and Katie Mackey, not peak Simpson and Rowbury.

EXACTLY. If Houlihan had raced in Europe against some top foreign competition and posted a good result or competitive times, I would put her in the medal conversation. But whomping on other US athletes that does not include many of the best at the 3k/5k distance does not qualify as world class.

i'm an american and usually root for americans only, but for some reason i'm pulling for Muir. Love the way she runs. Also, appreciate her balancing pro running with Vet school.

Not sure McColgan was trying too hard there as she still had two 1500m races to run

What a joke of a race, allowing doper Dibaba into the field.

aereedw wrote:

fledermaus wrote:

Majority of voters on the preview piece think that Houlihan will win a medal and more than twice as many people are backing her for the win than Laura Muir.

-Muir is world leader at 800m this year

-Muir is unbeaten this year, easily beating McColgan (8:31 runner) at national champs, no-one faster than 8:41 at US champs except SH

-Muir's best time over 3000m is nearly ten seconds faster than SH

-Muir's best times over 800m, 1500m and 5000m are much faster than SH

-Muir was 7 places and 14 seconds ahead of SH at the World Champs 5000m last summer

Not sure McColgan was trying too hard there as she still had two 1500m races to run

Maybe, but McColgan still ran 8:50 to Houlihan's 9:00 at the US champs, with both closing in ~2:46 for the last km.

McColgan has a better PR than Houlihan over 1500m, 3000m and 5000m, all set in the last year, and finished ahead of Houlihan at the World Champs 5000m last summer.