What are the chances that I could run a distance b-4 mile?

I apologize for the terrible title, it autocorrected to something stupid. I meant: "What are the chances that I could run a sub-4 mile?

400 PR?

A 1:52.x or faster 800 is generally considered a prerequisite but in no ways a guarantee for a sub 4 mile. My high school had a runner with similar training to you who went 1:55 and 4:12 in highschool. In college, he became a consistent 4:02-4:05 guy who could also go 1:51.x for 800. It took him several years of pretty serious training and racing post college but he eventually went 3:59.x for the mile and then immediately hung up his spikes.

For you, your times skew towards the 3k-5k range. I wouldn't rule out sub 4 but you have a lot of levels to go before you can be really serious about it. I would go to the school you want to go to as long as they have decent running conditions. D1 schools are not always very patient with runners and many walk-ons get burnt out due to injury- stress, etc.

I would focus the early part of senior track on getting your 800 down to the 1:55-1:56 range. That sort of speed endurance will make you a much more versatile runner as you age.

My 400PR is 55.3 open.

MoreInfo wrote:

400 PR?

Is it true that speed is best developed when younger? I have heard this but I do not know what the rationale is. If so, where do I start?

aspirations- wrote:

I am very strong academically,

Really? Then what the f**k is a "distance b-4 mile"?

Doesn't really matter if it is true or not, because you should work on your speed now. Don't know if you can ever break 4 but I don't think it hurts to dream big as long as you have some goals for the next season that are appropriate.

aspirations- wrote:

My 400PR is 55.3 open.

No chance, dude.

It needs to drop to sub 53 before you can start thinking about it.

Speaker of Hard Truths wrote:

aspirations- wrote:

I am very strong academically,

Really? Then what the f**k is a "distance b-4 mile"?

If you could read, then you would have seen that it was autocorrect. The mobile letsrun site does a weird thing and hides the end of your response in the title field, so after typing it I could not see that I had posted distance b-4 mile until after I posted.

Also, academic strength and common sense do not always correlate, and I admit that applies to me somewhat.

There have been runners with slower junior year times than you who went on to run sub 4.

There have also been many more with faster junior year times than you who didn't go on to run sub 4.

For all you know, you do have the talent to run sub 4 with a number of years of hard and dedicated training. The only way to find out is to go through the pain and suffering while continuing to try to train intelligently.

Sounds a lot like Ben True.

I agree with this poster that the long term ability here tends to skew toward the 3000/5000m. That 55 400 time just sounds more like the raw speed of a very good 5000m runner than it does a sub 4:00 miler.

But the thing is that you are a junior in high school. No one here has any idea of whether you are still growing, whether you are being coached well (I am guessing you are getting pretty good coaching), what your progression has been like, what your injury history has been like, whether you are crushing workouts or cruising through them, whether you are doing them solo or getting pulled through as part of a group, etc.

And even if everyone knew all of those things, it would still be just people guessing. As number driven as running is, there just aren't any formulas out there that can tell you "if you are a 4:21 1600m as a junior in high school, you are very likely to run a sub 4:00 mile in your lifetime." It doesn't work that way.