coadyc wrote:
18 mile long run about 2 weeks ago with 8 miles easy and last 10 miles at 6.35 pace.
Mileage is about 45-50 per week. Longest runs are 5 x 18 miles often progression runs with last 10k at 6.35 pace.
Half marathon pr is 1.18, but did a slow half marathon 1.23 recently ( felt tired on day from marathon training).
I like your chances but you are a little bit on the "light" side. A few more miles (60 mpw assuming you don't get hurt doing so), most of it slow (8-8:30+) will help. I like your 8+10 session.
By comparison I ran 2:56 on a 1:24 half and 5 runs of 16-17-18-19-20, the 20 being 10 E + 10 MP. What I ran for these last 10 (6:44 pace) is exactly what I did on race day.
You have the speed for sure, just need to make sure you have the strength so you avoid cramps/bonking. To do so, miles help. Don't go crazy but run a bit more, just slower.