Shooting for sub-2:30 Memorial Day Weekend; how fast does my half need to be this weekend?

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Preferably in the 69-71 minute range.

I dunno though 69-71 seems a bit quick. That seems more like a 2:26-28 full. I would say 73 would give you a good shot, especially with no specific training.

I would agree that 1:09 to 1:11 is a bit aggressive. 1:11 equates to a mid-to-high 2:28, so that is where OP should realistically be at the end of the training cycle. OP already has a good base and has functionally been doing some tempo work, and as a result may not get huge fitness drops from specific training as compared to someone who has been running at easy distance pace for 40 miles a week for an extended period. Disregarding this week, OP has 18 weeks until race day. That's enough time to both improve fitness and increase volume such that fitness at the half translates to fitness at the full (although I am not sure if much of a volume increase is coming or even really needed).If I were in your position, and I posted a 1:12 to 1:13 low, I would feel pretty good about where I was standing, assuming that the courses, conditions and competition were similar at each race.

EugeneRunner wrote:

I dunno though 69-71 seems a bit quick. That seems more like a 2:26-28 full. I would say 73 would give you a good shot, especially with no specific training.

I'd give another vote for the ~1:13 group. Especially if you don't feel like you're fully trained yet, and have a fair bit of fitness yet to come. If that's the case, anything under 1:14 is probably reasonably OK.

In my own experience, I typically ran half-marathons in the 1:09:high to 1:11:mid range leading up to a few marathons in the 2:24-2:25 range. For the marathons I raced in the 2:28-2:32 range I was more often around 1:13:low-1:14:high, though I definitely tended to be a bit better at the marathon than half-marathon distance.

Hall (59:43/2:06:17), that's over three minute slowdown per half--which is really good.

And you want to break 1:15 for each half in the marathon with just a 1:13 half pr? I'd say that 1:11-1:12 is minimum.

Memorial Day is still a ways away...I think as long as you're at least 1:14 low you'll have a shot by then after a good build-up.

You're misreading this. No one is saying a 1:13 PR means sub-2:30 is reasonable. We are saying a current, relatively untrained 1:13 would be a good enough performance to make sub-2:30 a reasonable goal for a marathon 18+ weeks away.

I've got a 2:28 full and I've never been in 69-71 shape. That's not at all realistic unless you're moving up from the mile or something.

1:13 is it. I ran several races in the 1:13 range on harder courses/days in the buildup to my 2:28. 1:12 is, unfortunately, a race effort to me.

While I am in the 1:13 camp as noted above, I would say that your experience is probably atypical. I base that on the VDOT tables and on my own experience (1:11 half/2:30 full).

My times were off in the other direction based on the VDOT tables, but my relative underperformance is likely more tied to the limited number of marathons that I have run and the fact that the marathon is tricky to perfect.

I would honestly want to be in shape to run close to a full VDOT score below what my projected marathon time was because of how small issues become magnified in the marathon. Personally, come race day, I would want to be able to break 1:11 if I wanted to feel confident about running under 2:30 (2:29:56 = 1:11:37 on the VDOT tables).

If you have not started specific training, I would just aim for 1:14 or under. Just don't go out too excited in 5:15 pace and jog home.. Get a nice rhythm earlier and ease into the race.

If this race was 2 months later, I would say you should be able to do 1:12 or faster. Pace work makes a big difference and you need some power in the engine to run 2:29. Don't try to be the 1:13/1:14 guy who strengths his way to a fast marathon, that is really hard to do. Keep a few miles in the 5:15-5:30 range, like 6xmile cruise intervals in 5:20 w/2' rec. Also, 3x2m in 5:25-30 range with 2-3' rec.

Lastly, an early race is a great workout. Use it!

I'll say that a guy running no more than 70 mpw right now should be looking for about 71min in the half before going 2:29. 74 would be garbage even if you haven't started marathon training. 18 weeks is a lot but it won't make up for a lack of base fitness, and you ought to be able to run a good half off base fitness.

Don't think that just because you're "marathon training" that you'll make huge improvements. If you can run close to 70-71 off 70 mpw, don't expect to break 2:30.

For the record, I ran about 2:33flat and I was probably in shape to crack 72, and I'm not speed-based. My performances basically align for 3000-42k

I guess this really begs the question of what his marathon training is going to look like. If marathon training means adding in some 20-22 milers, some progression runs and some runs finishing at mp, I would agree with you. But my sense is that those seeking to go under 2:30 tend to put in more intense work than that. Just thinking about how I train, the difference between going 4-5 miles per week at tempo pace (which is where I am guessing the OP is now) and 12 to 15 miles at tempo pace after a big vo2max block would mean significant improvements.

The fact that OP is already at 70 mpw is the one thing that makes me agree with you a little.

Thanks for the replies. I will go out in 5:30-5:35s and see how it goes. I will report back Sunday afternoon.

TrackBot! VDOT 2:30:00 marathon

VDOT for 2:30:00 42.195km: 66.3

Equivalent race times based on VDOT:

Marathon: 02:29:57

Half marathon: 01:11:37

15K: 00:49:48

10K: 00:32:27

5K: 00:15:38

3Mi: 00:15:03

2Mi: 00:09:43

3200m: 00:09:39

3K: 00:09:00

1Mi: 00:04:32

1600m: 00:04:31

1500m: 00:04:12

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