It was 77° that day, he was all alone in the baddest part of the race, and closed in a flimsy 57 seconds.
What if it was 70°, he had 1-2 other guys with him from 3k on and on the last lap? He would probably close in 52-54 and his overall time would be faster as he would have people pushing him throughout the race so his KM splits would be faster.
I say in those conditions that he would have fun 12:50-52