Hi all, hope you'll help me predict my marathon time. Goal race is in a month.
I'm 32 y/o male with Max HR of 195. Haven't raced this cycle, but here is data from three key workouts. All were 7-8 effort.
7.75 miles at 7:46 pace (174 avg HR)
12.5 miles at 8:20 pace (169 avg HR)
14 miles at 8:43 pace (158 avg HR)
Course and weather at race should be similar to what these were run in. Thanks!
Anyone?
Not a lot to go off there but my guess is 3:51
DNF
Some strong Internet bad assery there. Well done.
What time are you hoping for? How many miles have you been averaging?
Any recent races?
No really hard goals. Have averaged about 38 miles a week with last three weeks being right at 50/week. This is my first more serious cycle in several years. Planning to just slowly keep increasing from here with a goal of 3:30 or below for fall 2015.
You need a race to extrapolate from and then still add 5/10mins to compensate for the lack of miles. Those workouts are not meaningful (enough).
Good luck.
3:50 - 3:55.
I ran a 3:36 recently in crappy weather on a flat course. I ran everything in my cycle at a lesser % HR Max, on hillier terrain than the marathon, at a faster pace than you've reported. I peaked at 55 MPW, averaged about 45 for the 18 week cycle. I'm 40.
Your muscles will revolt by mile 22 (probably mile 18) and the remaining JOLK (or is it WOG?) will feel terrible. At least it'll pass by the following Friday, you hope.
Ran a 10 mile race this morning. Avg 7:24/mile with average 180 HR.
Ran a 3:41. Boom!
Impressive given the training. What were the first half / second half splits?
1:49/1:52
Avg HR 172 (Max 195)
And thanks!
Decent pacing job there, well done.
Considering my mileage, I was happy.
If you use Strava, I built something that can predict your times automatically. No searching for your fastest segments within runs.
http://www.racepredictions.com
My times are pretty similar to yours and it puts me at 3:35. I see that you were pretty close that time in the end.
I built this as a project to help me start learning how to program. I'm not trying to charge or make money with this - just trying to help out! Let me know what you think.
I’m a D2 female runner. Our coach explicitly told us not to visit LetsRun forums.
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