No I am drunk with my foolishness and immaturity.
No I am drunk with my foolishness and immaturity.
Igy, do the DOW and other major western indexes correlate well with the Asian markets?
honest,
My answer would be that historical correlation is lower but lately (since 2011) that correlation has gone up. I would attribute that to central bank policies and institutional trading.
Igy
Good morning.
Since the market top in June of 2015 496 stocks in the S&P 500 have declined on average 21.7%. So the vast majority of stocks in the S&P 500 are in Bear Market territory.
On a 52 week basis here are the numbers (as of Friday 1/8/2016):
S&P 500 -6.004%
Equal Weight S&P 500 -9.148%
FB +25.199%
AMZN 104.442%
NFLX 136.791%
GOOG 43.997%
I believe it is reasonable to expect funds or indices that have overweight positions in FANG to underperform funds or indices that are underweight FANG.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:My answer would be that historical correlation is lower but lately (since 2011) that correlation has gone up. I would attribute that to central bank policies and institutional trading.Thanks Igy, are you saying that based on gut feel, or have you looked at some actual plots or numbers?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Good morning.
Since the market top in June of 2015 496 stocks in the S&P 500 have declined on average 21.7%. So the vast majority of stocks in the S&P 500 are in Bear Market territory.
On a 52 week basis here are the numbers (as of Friday 1/8/2016):
S&P 500 -6.004%
Equal Weight S&P 500 -9.148%
FB +25.199%
AMZN 104.442%
NFLX 136.791%
GOOG 43.997%
I believe it is reasonable to expect funds or indices that have overweight positions in FANG to underperform funds or indices that are underweight FANG.
Igy
I'm reviewing the year - it is truly amazing what a few megacaps did for the SP500 - I'd guess the average stock in the US was down in the 3% to 4% range, but the SP500 broke even.
I'm trying to figure out how to explain this to clients.
It's like playing roulette and having the same numbers come up again and again and calling it a winning year.
Well yes but the odds are that won't happen much longer
honest,
Just my thoughts and observations.
Igy
agip,
Good reference points are the performance deferential SPY versus RSP or DIA. Momentum investors be it retail or institutional have a narrowing group of investment candidates.
Igy
Currencies. CURRENCIES. More later.
To divert, I bought 5 Powerball tickets and didn't win a thing.
So what have I done? Bought 5 more, naturally. I'm trying to resist calls from around the world to set up a buying group. I have limited purchases to USD 20 for each individual friend. I will keep USD 100M or 15% of the net, whichever is less, unless they wish to give me more. LMAO what a figure.
If I win solo, I will do at least 3 projects: 1) buy an island and populate it with shelter dogs and qualified attendants, and 2) establish a private astrophysical research institute. The third project I am already doing, and I might put some more money into it, but it now has a life of its own.
Maserati,
There was an E-Trade commercial a few years ago, one with the baby character. The baby was telling his father who was buying a lottery ticket, that the odds were higher to be mauled by a polar bear and a regular bear the same day, as winning the lottery.
Igy
I'm well aware of the odds.
Mostly I just love how one of my CFP friends says the world "Billion". He's overseas now, he just can't believe it. I telephoned him just to hear him say it.
I haven't looked, but on what kind of volumes has 2016 dropped?
Market generally is down 6%.
BTW Igy I have also started swimming.
My wife is a swimmer, and her teammates have gone down to Palm Springs, leaving her alone for a month. To keep her motivated, I have started joining her in the pool for warmdowns after my workouts.
I have done 2 so far: 200 and 250. LMAO I am increasing by 50m each time, and will be at 1000 in 1 month, and 1800 in 2 months.
She laughs at this, as she does 2500 for a workout. I've tried to explain that I'm so far just doing warmdowns, but she's not buying it.
I'm enjoying my micro-swims so far. Next workout ushers in the era of fly and flip-turns. I'm trying to be smart about it, because I have a tendency to go too hard. There are a few pools where we summer at which I will need to make a good showing this year. My wife calls me the Bulgarian Goalie (I am neither Bulgarian nor a goalie. Must be those square-cut trunks...)
Here's to you! Maybe when I come out to Idaho we can go for a swim after our run.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Market generally is down 6%.
Trading volumes?
Maserati,
I grew up by the ocean in California so I did quite a bit of body surfing growing up. In body surfing you use fins. So as my running days became less and less I began to swim more and I cheat by using fins. I felt it was more important to spend more time in the pool and the fins help me get there. I also go to a spin class before work and lift weights twice a week. Hip arthritis limits my running to two days a week.
Igy
Maserati,
Volume trends for 2015:
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/globenewswire/6118321.htm
If I find 2016 I will post.
Igy
S&P levels to watch:
1870 2015 August/September lows
1820 October 2014 (Russian invasion of Crimea)
Igy
Maserati wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Market generally is down 6%.
Trading volumes?
This is the trading volume picture for the March SP500 contract:
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=SPH16&style=technical&template=&p=DC&d=M&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&po=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29%3BRSI%2814%2C0%2C100%2C10079487%2C10040064%29%3BCCI%2820%2C6710886%2C100%2C26367%2C16724736%29&chartindicator_4_code=COTLC&chartindicator_4_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_4_param_1=26112&chartindicator_4_param_2=153&chartindicator_5_code=RSI&chartindicator_5_param_0=14&chartindicator_5_param_1=0&chartindicator_5_param_2=100&chartindicator_5_param_3=10079487&chartindicator_5_param_4=10040064&chartindicator_6_code=CCI&chartindicator_6_param_0=20&chartindicator_6_param_1=6710886&chartindicator_6_param_2=100&chartindicator_6_param_3=26367&chartindicator_6_param_4=16724736&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jumpDon't know is this is going to go through readable, but the volumes are much lower than those seen in Aug/Sept. Elliott Wave doesn't work any more (except maybe large degree) because everybody knows about it, but the whole period since August can be interpreted as a single Wave 4 symmetric triangle, which would imply one large move up, then Igy gets what he wants--ASSUMING the Chinese manage to contain their catastrophe (I have expected for years the China "ten foot tall" myth was ultimately going to go the way of Japan).
I see green, I see green
The prettiest color you've ever seeeeeen!
I see green, I see green, I see green
I know that I don't know. I only see the effects of manipulation. Zerohedge on the other hand, has very specific and detailed ideas about motives depending on the article or comment.
Jack Alannern wrote:
Ummm, isn't that what the majority of zerohedge articles are about... rigging and manipulation?
Pop_pop!_v2.2.1 wrote:Please, no zerohedge.
My bias is the game is rigged in case it isn't obvious.
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