Down goes the Dow

Forgot to include this (the real returns for both):

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/legendary/lisn100.shtml

Wrong link - sorry ....

https://www.putnam.com/literature/pdf/II514-bee9d3d363e6964080e2056af9538b4a.pdf

Sally Vx wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I read Taleb’s anti-fragile theory several years ago. My interpretation you weight heavy to T-Bills with a small allocation to out of consensus bets. For me my that is anything that hasn’t worked this cycle: market short, managed futures, etc. I would do gold but invested there years ago. I was going to do oil back in 2016, but was looking to go lower which it did not. One could do individual securities but I prefer macro bets with the current distortion to markets.

Ghost of Igloi - CDs have returned inflation-adjusted losses for 9 of the last 10 years. You really think CDs are a good investment? They are a terrible investment. Contrast that with the stock market which has done quite well, even inflation-adjusted, over the same time.

Over the past year my portfolio has dramatically outperformed the market. I plan to stick with it thru the 50% drawdown that is coming, then shift the allocation toward stocks.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sally Vx wrote:

Ghost of Igloi - CDs have returned inflation-adjusted losses for 9 of the last 10 years. You really think CDs are a good investment? They are a terrible investment. Contrast that with the stock market which has done quite well, even inflation-adjusted, over the same time.

Over the past year my portfolio has dramatically outperformed the market. I plan to stick with it thru the 50% drawdown that is coming, then shift the allocation toward stocks.

And all the years before last year, how did your portfolio stack up against the overall market?

Since 1983, outperformed the market by 2% annuallly. Of course I would not recommend that anyone do what I am doing since it cannot be replicated easily.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Since 1983, outperformed the market by 2% annuallly. Of course I would not recommend that anyone do what I am doing since it cannot be replicated easily.

How can you say it outperformed the market by 2% annually. Since 1989, the real return of the S & P has surpassed that of CDs by 6% annually. You are heavy in CDs. How have you outperformed the market during that time?

Again, here is the real performance of both:

Simple answer I have only been heavily into CDs over the past year or so.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Simple answer I have only been heavily into CDs over the past year or so.

So, a 0.85 return is one that you consider good? What were you heavy into the previous years?

No what was good was my 7% annualized return over the past 12 months.

Oh, and that was about net +12% over your portfolio last twelve months.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No what was good was my 7% annualized return over the past 12 months.

How can you have a 7% annualized return over the last 12 months when CD rates were about 3%, inflation was at 2% leaving you with about a 1% return. You said you were heavily in CDs. So how did you manage 7%? Bitcoins?

Market short, managed futures.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Market short, managed futures.

Can I ask what type of futures? I am pretty experienced in energy futures.

SAlly Vx wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Market short, managed futures.

Can I ask what type of futures? I am pretty experienced in energy futures.

No, a fund:

Sorry wrong symbol: https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/ahlyx/betaquote.html

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

SAlly Vx wrote:

Can I ask what type of futures? I am pretty experienced in energy futures.

No, a fund:

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/ahylx/betaquote.html

You maybe want to get rid of that fund. Its 5-year return is 2.33% and with inflation being about 1.5% over that time period - your real return is along the lines of 0.8%. Ouch. You are paying 0.59% in annual fees. Another Ouch.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

SAlly Vx wrote:

Can I ask what type of futures? I am pretty experienced in energy futures.

No, a fund:

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/ahylx/betaquote.html

Nice fund! Two stars and trails it’s index by 25%.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sorry wrong symbol:

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/ahlyx/betaquote.html

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sorry wrong symbol:

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/ahlyx/betaquote.html

That’s better, but Google a little more and you can find better to try to impress us with.