2025 Boston Marathon Women’s Preview: Hellen Obiri Goes For The 3-Peat

The 2025 Boston Marathon takes place on Monday. We’ve already previewed the men’s field and now it’s time to break down the women’s field. The big storyline is Kenya’s Hellen Obiri will try to become the first woman to three-peat in the 21st century. A three-peat has happened four times on the women’s side, but not since Ethiopia’s Fatuma Roba from 1997-99.

Below, you will find an analysis of this year’s field based on what the athletes have done in the past. On Friday, we’ll talk to the athletes, coaches, and agents to try to get a sense of how their training has gone. We’ll go live at 1 p.m. ET on Friday with a video preview show, where we’ll make our official picks.

LRC 2025 Boston Marathon Men’s Preview: Can Conner Mantz Make the Leap Into Contention? Mantz is in the shape of his life after setting a half marathon AR in Houston and running even faster in NYC. Is 2025 the year he cracks the podium in a major? And does he have any chance to win on Monday?

The Favorite

Hellen Obiri – 35 – Kenya – 2:21:38 pb (2023 Boston)

Hellen Obiri celebrating her first Boston win in 2023. Kevin Morris photo.

Why she’s the favorite: Hellen Obiri has long been one of the very best female distance runners on planet Earth. The two-time world 5,000m champ and 2019 World XC champ moved to the marathon at the end of 2022, and while her debut in New York was disappointing (6th 2:25:49), she’s been very good in every marathon she’s run since.

Helen Obiri’s Career Marathons
2022: 6th NYC (2:25:49)
2023: 1st Boston (2:21:38), 1st NYC (2:27:23)
2024: 1st Boston (2:22:37), 3rd Paris Olympics (2:23:10), 2nd NYC (2:24:49)

Even though Obiri didn’t win her last two marathons, she did beat two of her chief 2025 Boston rivals at the Paris Games in Sharon Lokedi (4th, 2:23:14) and Amane Beriso (5th, 2:23:57).

What’s not to like about Obiri: The 35-year-old hasn’t run any prep races this year. In 2023, she ran two half marathons before Boston, and in 2024, she ran one.

Is that a sign that her buildup in Kenya hasn’t been going well? Or has she just been playing things safe since she ran three marathons in 2024 and struggled with an injury prior to the Olympics that left her only with only six weeks of hard-core training to get ready for Paris? I imagine it’s probably the latter.

We’ll find out for sure at Friday’s press conference but Obiri isn’t hiding from expectations as she told Outside she’s ready to make history and become the first woman to three-peat in the 21st century.

 

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Four Others That Could Win

Amane Beriso – 33 – Ethiopia – 2:14:58 pb (2022 Valencia)

What’s not to like about Beriso: Beriso, the 2023 world champ who ran 2:14:58 in 2022 Valencia (#5 all-time), has raced Obiri twice in the marathon and twice she’s lost to her in the closing stages. Beriso was the runner-up to Obiri in 2023 in Boston and was 5th to Obiri’s 3rd at the Paris Olympics. Additionally, in Beriso’s only other marathon in 2024, she “only” ran 2:16:58 for 3rd in Tokyo — two minutes slower than her pb from Valencia.

Why Beriso could win: She’s got the best pb in the field and is a past winner in Mumbai, Mexico City, Worlds, and Valencia.

Yalemzerf Yehualaw – 25 – Ethiopia – 2:16:52 pb (2024 Amsterdam)

What’s not to like about Yehualaw: She’s unproven on a course like Boston.

Why Yehualaw could win: In addition to being by far the youngest of major contenders, do you remember what a sensation she was just a few years ago? She was so good she had a nickname on our podcast: “Y-squared.” She was the road 10k world record holder (29:14) and we thought the half marathon world record holder as well (63:43; later invalidated for being 54 meters short — though her official pb of 63:51 is still very fast). She took to the marathon very well as she won her debut in Hamburg in an Ethiopian record of 2:17:23 (April 2022) and then followed that up with a win in that October’s London Marathon (2:17:26).

Yes, that’s not a typo. The Ethiopian record in the marathon was 2:17:23 just three years ago. Now that time ranks #21 on the Ethiopian list.

After a blazing start to her marathon career, Yehualaw hit a speed bump as she was just 5th in London and 5th Worlds in 2023 before finishing 8th in London last year. But she got some of her mojo back in Amsterdam last fall as she won by 2.5 minutes in a pb of 2:16:52.

If Yehualaw is going to win Boston in 2025, I suggest she not leave it to a sprint finish. Trying to outsprint Obiri normally isn’t a smart move. I suggest she try to hammer miles 24 and 25 like she did at 2023 London.

Irine Cheptai – 33 – Kenya – 2:17:51 pb (2024 Chicago)

Why Cheptai could win: Cheptai, the 2017 World XC champ, moved up to the marathon last year at the relatively late age of 32 and it went quite well for her as she won in Hamburg in 2:18:22 and improved to 2:17:51 in Chicago (3rd) after going out in 68:19. The 6th placer in the 2021 Olympic 10,000 has solid pbs of 14:43/30:14/64:53 at the shorter distances. Given her XC prowess, it seems like she’d likely do well on a course like Boston so she certainly should be in the mix.

What’s not to like about Cheptai: Cheptai wasn’t a star on the track like Obiri and rarely won races. If she was made for the marathon, one would think she probably would have moved up earlier. Of course, we should point out that famed coach Renato Canova told us in 2017 at World XC he thought she’d be a good marathoner and that’s proven to be true.

Sharon Lokedi – 31 – Kenya – 2:23:14 pb (2024 Olympics)

Why Lokedi could win: Like Obiri, Lokedi is a seasoned veteran of non-rabbitted, hilly courses, as the Boston/NYC double is a staple of her racing menu. She won NYC in 2022 and was 2nd in Boston last year. She heads into Boston this year after earning a win and personal best in the half (67:04) in NYC a little over a month ago. As a result, we know she’s in shape whereas with the other top contenders we’ll have to believe it by listening to them talk or maybe watching a social media clip of them training.

What’s not to like about Lokedi: Lokedi raced Hellen Obiri three times over the 26.2 distance in 2024 and lost all three (2nd in Boston, 4th in Paris, and 9th in New York).

Rojo’s take on the major contenders

A pet peeve of mine at LetsRun is when we write a preview and don’t mention the winner at all. So maybe I should mention one other name of someone who I could see maybe winning it. Former Toronto winner Buze Diriba (2:20:22 pb) comes in after having run 66:48 for the half in Houston.

I’d really like to see some betting odds for this race. The value to me might lie in Yalemzerf Yehualaw or Irine Cheptai.

It’s now time to talk about the Americans.

The Americans

To be honest, I don’t have the highest of hopes for the Americans in this one. On this week’s LetsRun.com Track Talk podcast, former HOKA NAZ Elite founder Ben Rosario said when he’s handicapping the field, he’s looking for three things.

1. Past evidence they can handle a course like Boston.“If you haven’t shown that you can compete on a course like Boston, I’m skeptical if you can pull it off on your first time,” said Rosario, although he admitted it has happened a few times.
2. Are they in good form? What have they done in the last two years?
3. Are they in the prime of their careers? “These days you really have to be at the top of your game to win a race like this,” said Rosario.

This year’s Boston field features three American women who have broken 2:24 within the last 10 years: Keira D’Amato, Sara Hall, and Emma Bates. But if you judge them by Rosario’s criteria, it’s hard to be super excited. I’ll present them to you in order of most likely to least likely to be the top American.

Emma Bates – 32 – 2:22:10 pb (2023 Boston)

http://gty.im/2148744983 Bates does have a track record of running well in Boston. Her best marathon came in 2023 when she led a lot of the race before ultimately finishing 5th in 2:22:10.

LRC American Emma Bates Runs the Race of Her Life at the 2023 Boston Marathon

The bad news is 2024 was not a good one for Bates as she missed the Olympic Trials and then was only 12th in Boston and 11th in Chicago. The good news for Bates fans is she comes into Boston off of a half marathon pb in New York on March 16 (68:21) when she’d never run faster than 71:13 in two previous runs in NYC.

Judging Bates by Rosario’s criteria, I’d say she passes at least two, if not all three of the criteria.

Keira D’Amato – 40 – 2:19:12 (2022 Houston)

I was super excited to see D’Amato run Chicago in the fall as it was her first under the tutelage of Ed Eyestone and her first to come while training at altitude. But the race did not go well as she dropped out early with an ankle injury. She also dropped out of the Olympic Trials in February 2024. In between, she did run a 31:05 10,000 pb, however.

Judging her by Rosario’s criteria, she’s 0-3 as she’s got no track record on a course like Boston (15th in NYC in 2022), isn’t in good recent form, and is past the prime of her career. Our Jonathan Gault reached out to Eyestone for an update on D’Amato and he said, “I think she’s coming into this realistically, realizing she’s 40 years old now. I think she’d just like to be the best Keira D’Amato that she can be at this stage. Which I think is still very, very good.”

JG: How has Keira’s buildup gone?

Ed Eyestone: Keira has had a lot of good workouts. We didn’t have the luxury of really putting her into any race situations because she was coming off her ankle issue. It’s been a shorter build, certainly, but it’s been a build that I think she’s got some good work in. And we’re going to go in and just see how well she can run.

JG: How short was the build? When did she get over the ankle injury?

EE: She was cross-training at a very high level but in terms of her first running workout back, it was about 13 or 14 weeks ago. But prior to that, she was cross-training like an animal. Her aerobic fitness was going pretty well but it wasn’t really until January that we made the call [to run Boston]. Because we were kind of looking at it going, okay, you cross-trained very strong and you’ve been running lightly. What’s the latest we can start doing some more quality sessions and still feel comfortable going and racing Boston? Because that was a desire of hers. And by the time we were in mid-January, we felt like, okay, we can still pull this off, let’s go all-in. Since then, she’s been very consistent and slamming the work.

Sara Hall – USA – 42 – 2:20:32 pb (2020 Marathon Project)

Hall turned 42 on Tax Day. Look, she’s an inspiration. It blows my mind that she’s still running quite well in her early 40s. Twice already this year, she’s run under 70:00 for the halfmarathon: 69:37 in Atlanta at the US Half champs and then 69:45 in NYC two weeks later on March 16. But she was only 9th at the US champs and has never run well in Boston, never finishing higher than 15th. She likes flat courses and Boston isn’t flat.

So Hall fails Rosario’s first and third test as she’s not in the prime of her career. She is in pretty good form for her age, however. She was 5th at the Olympic Trials last year and ran 2:23:45 for 10th in Valencia, but at her peak she was a 2:20:32 performer (2020).

Don’t forget about Olympian Dakotah Popehn – 29 – 2:24:40 pb (2023 Chicago)  

Popehn (formerly Dakotah Lindwurm — she got married in October) comes into Boston off a career year in 2024 where she surprisingly made the Olympic team and then finished 12th (top American) in Paris. She proved in Paris she’s not afraid of the moment and can handle hills. That being said, she doesn’t actually have a great track record in Boston as she’s finished 12th, 14th and 26th in her three previous attempts.

This year, she’s run 69:57/70:18 in Atlanta and NYC for the 13.1 distance.

Popehn should also have access to Puma’s new supershoe, the Fast-R Nitro Elite 3, which they claim gives runners a 3.5% efficiency boost — even compared to other supershoes. Alex Hutchinson has more details in a great story for Outside.

Rojo’s verdict on the Americans

I rank those four women in this order: 1) Bates 2) Popehn 3) D’Amato 4) Hall. A top-5 showing would be GREAT for any of them.

There are a lot more US women running as well. See the full list of elite women including a ton of powerful moms below.

Who do you think will win and be the top American? Vote in the polls below. Then come back live on Friday for a video preview show, where we’ll make our official picks after getting the inside scoop from the press conference. Join the Supporters Club today to get that show as a podcast.

More: 2025 Boston Marathon Men’s Preview: Can Conner Mantz Make the Leap Into Contention? Mantz is in the shape of his life after setting a half marathon AR in Houston and running even faster in NYC. Is 2025 the year he cracks the podium in a major? And does he have any chance to win on Monday?

2025 BOSTON MARATHON PROFESSIONAL WOMEN’S DIVISION

*Denotes Masters (40+) athlete