Ranking America’s Mid-D/Distance Medal Hopes at 2024 World Indoors
From Josette Andrews to Yared Nuguse, we count them down
By Jonathan Gault
The 2024 World Athletics Indoor Championships kick off in Glasgow, Scotland, on Friday, and it promises to be quite a spectacle.
Many of track and field biggest stars will be in Glasgow – Mondo, Femke Bol, Karsten Warholm, Ryan Crouser, Noah Lyles, Gudaf Tsegay and many more. As a distance-oriented website, the men’s 3000 should be one of the highlights as it features reigning 1500 world champion and Scottish native Josh Kerr , reigning Olympic 10,000 champion Selemon Barega, and 3:43 miler Yared Nuguse. Budding American stars Cole Hocker and Hobbs Kessler are also entered in the 1500, while Elle St. Pierre will look to bring back a world medal less than a year after giving birth to son Ivan.
There are six mid-d/distance events in Glasgow — the men’s and women’s 800, 1500, and 3000 — and the United States had at least an outside shot to medal in all six. In this article, we’ll take a look at all 12 Americans entered in Glasgow and count down their medal odds from least to most likely to medal.
Later in the week, we’ll break down the whole meet and tell you which events overall we are most looking forward to so be sure to come to LetsRun each and every day.
How many medals should American fans expect? The US has averaged three medals per meet over the past five editions, and while those numbers are somewhat skewed by six at the home Worlds in Portland in 2016, Americans have won at least two mid-d/distance medals at every World Indoors since 2010 (it helps that the US always sends full teams while some mid-d powers like Kenya don’t always take the meet seriously).
During that span, some unlikely Americans have reached the podium. We all remember Matthew Centrowitz‘s gold in 2016, but how about Drew Windle‘s silver in 2018 or Erica Moore‘s bronze in 2012? Here’s the full haul since 2012:
2022 Belgrade (3)
Gold: Ajee’ Wilson (W800)
Silver: Elle St. Pierre (W3000)
Bronze: Bryce Hoppel (M800)
2018 Birmingham (2)
Silver: Drew Windle (M800), Ajee’ Wilson (W800)
2016 Portland (6)
Gold: Boris Berian (M800), Matthew Centrowitz (M1500)
Silver: Ryan Hill (M3000), Ajee’ Wilson (W800)
Bronze: Erik Sowinski (M800), Shannon Rowbury (W3000)
2014 Sopot (2)
Gold: Chanelle Price (W800)
Silver: Bernard Lagat (M3000)
2012 Istanbul (2)
Gold: Bernard Lagat (M3000)
Silver: Erica Moore (W800)
Full disclosure: before doing research for this piece, I’d never even heard of Erica Moore, who, it turns out, was a converted heptathlete/400 hurdler from Indiana State. But here’s the proof that she did indeed medal in Istanbul in 2012.
That’s World Indoors for you. The fields are a smaller and shallower, the track is trickier to maneuver, and most athletes have at least one eye on the outdoor season. Underdogs can and do medal, which means almost every American heading to Glasgow can dream of standing on the podium. Let’s count them down.
(BTW: when I did this exercise ahead of the last World Indoors, my top two choices, Ajee’ Wilson and Bryce Hoppel, both ended up medaling. But the other American medalist, Elle St. Pierre, was only 5th in my ranking.)
12) Josette Andrews, women’s 3000
Someone has to be last. Andrews does have major championship experience in the past, finishing 3rd in the Diamond League 1500 final in 2021 and 5th in the World Indoor 1500 final in 2022. Aerobically, she is pretty fit right now, having run 14:46 for 5000 in Boston on January 27. But she was only 10th in the mile at Millrose after finishing 2nd in 2022 and 2023 and finished nine seconds behind Elle St. Pierre at USAs — and it’s not even a given that St. Pierre medals herself. Andrews doesn’t have the speed at the moment to be a factor in Glasgow.
11) Olin Hacker, men’s 3000
Hacker, whose pb is 7:38 from outdoors last year, should be proud to have made his first Worlds team after beating some good guys in the process at USAs (Morgan Beadlescomb, Abdihamid Nur). But with Kerr, Barega, Nuguse, and 7:24 man Getnet Wale, this is a totally stacked field at the top. Hacker’s medal chances are very slim, but the the men’s 3000 isn’t quite as deep as the women’s 3000, so his odds are slightly better than Andrews’.
10) Emily Mackay, women’s 1500
9) Nikki Hiltz, women’s 1500
Kevin Morris photo
Mackay gave Hiltz a good run for the title at USAs, but the Ethiopians have been so far ahead of the rest of the world in this event in 2024 that it’s hard to see either American having a shot at Worlds. Consider: on February 4 in Boston, Mackay ran 4:05.04 to finish 3rd in the 1500, where she was more than six seconds behind the runner-up, Birke Haylom of Ethiopia, who ran 3:58.43. Then consider that Haylom is only the fifth-fastest Ethiopian woman this season and will be the slowest of the three Ethiopians at Worlds (World Indoor Tour winner Freweyni Hailu ran 3:55.28 in Torun on February 6, while 2023 Worlds silver medalist Diribe Welteji was right behind her in 3:55.47).
Only one American woman, Shelby Houlihan, has ever broken 3:56, indoors or out. And at their absolute best, neither Mackay (3:59.99 outdoor pb) nor Hiltz (3:59.61) have even run within a second of Haylom’s SB, let alone Hailu or Welteji’s. The only way Mackay or Hiltz even have an outside shot is if the Ethiopians allow the final to go slow — which would make little sense since a fast race is their best option to secure a podium sweep (something Ethiopia also achieved in 2022).
8) Addy Wiley, women’s 800
Wiley is only 20 years old and was only second at USAs, but she has a few things working in her favor. One is that she’s more experienced than most 20-year-old Americans, having run 1:57 and 3:59 on the European circuit last year. She’s also shown no fear on the big stage, running near the front of last year’s US outdoor 1500 final as a teenager and leading much of this year’s US indoor final.
But the biggest thing working in Wiley’s favor is the event she is in. Look at that list of recent US medalists again. Erica Moore. Chanelle Price. Drew Windle. It’s simple math: 37.5% of the finalists will earn a medal (it used to be 50% until they expanded the final from 6 to 8 runners in 2022). Make it there, and your odds are pretty good.
Getting to the final won’t be easy — five women in the field have broken 2:00 this year, and that doesn’t count Jamaica’s Natoya Goule-Toppin, who ran 1:55 in her last race, the 2023 Diamond League final. Wiley has run 1:57.64 outdoors, which put her #8 on the 2023 world list. She’s not in that kind of shape right now, but she has talent to be world-class in this event.
7) Allie Wilson, women’s 800
Wilson’s pb of 1:58.09 from 2022 is a little slower than Wiley’s so her ceiling is not quite as high as her American teammate, particularly long-term. But in the short term, Wilson has been winning races — first at Millrose and then six days later at USAs. None of her times have been particularly fast — her 2:00.63 at USAs was the only time she’s broken 2:01 this year — but there is something to be said for winning races, and both Millrose and USAs were good simulations of the sort of race Wilson will face in the rounds at Worlds.
6) Isaiah Harris, men’s 800
Harris made the World Indoor final in Belgrade in 2022 but struggled to find a good position throughout the race and finished 7th, leading him to tweet the following:
Gonna have nightmares about that race for awhile 😅🤦🏽♂️
— zay (@Zay_800) March 19, 2022
To add injury to insult, Harris tore his hamstring running the prelims of the 4×400 for Team USA the following morning, an injury that derailed his outdoor season. But he rebounded last year to run 1:44 and make his first outdoor Worlds team since 2017 and now, two years after Belgrade, he has a shot at redemption at World Indoors. Harris is only the #12 seed and was only 2nd at USAs, but he was 2nd at USAs in 2022 and made the final then. And as we know in the 800, if he’s in the final, he has a decent shot at a medal.
5) Hobbs Kessler, men’s 1500
Now we’re getting into the serious medal threats. With all due respect to the first seven runners on this list, it would be a surprise if any of them medalled in Glasgow. The top five on this list, however, have been among the best runners in the world this indoor season and most will be disappointed not to come home with a medal.
Kessler enters as the #1 seed with a 3:33.66 season’s best, but that’s misleading: he was dusted by Cole Hocker at USAs and is by no means the favorite. But he has run two very strong races this indoor season — that 3:33 to beat Jake Wightman in Boston on February 4 and a 3:48 mile at Millrose a week later — before his run at USAs. Two-time defending champion Samuel Tefera of Ethiopia, 2023 Worlds bronze medalist Narve Nordas, 3:29 Frenchman Azeddine Habz, Hocker, and perhaps even Kiwi Geordie Beamish have stronger medal odds than Kessler, who has never competed at a global championship on the track (though he did win the inaugural road mile world title in October). But if he can run his best race in the final (assuming he makes it), that could be enough for a medal.
4) Bryce Hoppel, men’s 800
Few runners are more consistent than Hoppel, who has won the last five US titles between indoors and outdoors. So considering Hoppel medalled in his last appearance at this meet, he has a realistic chance to do it again in 2024. His season’s best of 1:45.54 from Millrose is very close to his 1:45.30 sb from 2022, and he ran a well-measured race to win the US title in Albuquerque. Hoppel is experienced, tough, and usually strong in the home straight. No man has broken 1:45 this year, but of the 12 who have run in the 1:45s, nine are running World Indoors. Anything from winning told to missing the final entirely is in play for Hoppel.
3) Elle St. Pierre, women’s 3000
In 2022, St. Pierre ran 4:19 to win the mile at Millrose and won USAs by two seconds before taking silver against a strong field at World Indoors. She took off the 2023 season to have a baby, and now that she has returned, she’s been better than ever in 2024, running one American record (4:16 mile at Millrose) and missing another by 0.2 (8:25 3k in Boston) before winning USAs by nine seconds. She’s in top, top shape.
So why is she only third on this list? Well for one thing, the two guys ahead of her are really, really good. But the main reason is that the women’s 3000 at World Indoors is stacked.
Ethiopia’s Gudaf Tsegay is the world record holder in the 1500 indoors (3:53) and 5000 outdoors (14:00). She missed the world record in the indoor 3000 by less than a second this year (8:17). St. Pierre isn’t beating her, and most likely, no one else is either.
That leaves two available medals to be split between St. Pierre, Australia’s Jessica Hull (who outkicked St. Pierre in the 3k in Boston on February 4), Ethiopia’s Hirut Meshesha (3:54 1500 pb), steeple world record holder Beatrice Chepkoech of Kenya, and Laura Muir (two-time outdoor Worlds 1500 medalist), who will have the home crowd behind her in Glasgow. Oh, and defending champion Lemlem Hailu of Ethiopia is entered as well, though she DNF’d her only race of 2024 so far.
Could St. Pierre beat those women and finish 2nd again? Yes. But it’s a much tougher path to a medal than the final two guys on this list.
2) Cole Hocker, men’s 1500
Hocker finished 7th at Worlds in the 1500 meters last year. Let’s look at the six men who finished above him in that race:
1. Josh Kerr, Great Britain 3:29.38 — Running 3000 at World Indoors.
2. Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Norway 3:29.65 — Not running World Indoors after Achilles injury this winter.
3. Narve Nordas, Norway 3:29.68 — Running 1500 at World Indoors but was a well-beaten 5th in Lievin in his only 1500 of ’24.
4. Abel Kipsang, Kenya 3:29.89 — Not running World Indoors.
5. Yared Nuguse, USA 3:30.25 — Running 3000 at World Indoors.
6. Mario Garcia Romo, Spain 3:30.26 — Running 1500 at World Indoors but has not been in good form this winter. Only 10th at Millrose mile in 3:54.
7. Cole Hocker, USA 3:30.70 — Running 1500 at World Indoors. Ran 8:05 2-mile pb at Millrose, then dominated 1500 at USAs.
So only two of the men who beat Hocker in Budapest will be running in Glasgow. And of those two, Garcia Romo is not in good shape and Nordas looked rusty in his opener. Nordas did look better in his second race, winning a 3000 in Madrid last week in 7:41, and while he told Norwegian press he is in better shape than last year, his kick may not be where it needs to be at this point in the season.
Hocker, meanwhile, has only gotten stronger since last year and enters Worlds in incredible form. There are a few other guys he needs to worry about — two-time defending champion Samuel Tefera of Ethiopia, big kicker Geordie Beamish of New Zealand, notably — but Hocker is certainly among the medal favorites.
Teen sensation Biniam Mehary of Ethiopia, who just turn 17 in December, is someone we will be keeping a close look on as well as he’s run 3:34.
1) Yared Nuguse, men’s 3000
Two reasons why Nuguse is America’s best bet at a distance medal in Glasgow.
1. He’s a total stud in great shape
Anyone who watched Nuguse in 2023 knows how good he is. He won two Diamond League 1500s, ran a 3:43 mile (#4 all-time), and ran 7:28 for 3000. In his worst race of the year, he still finished 5th at the World Championships. So far in 2024, he’s run 13:02 for 5000, a 3:47.83 mile at Millrose (the #3 indoor time ever), and won the 3000 handily at USA indoors, closing in 26.10 for his last lap. That 13:02 shows Nuguse is strong enough that it’s going to be very hard to drop him in Glasgow. And his Millrose/USA victories show he has the speed to close out races at the end.
2. The field isn’t that deep
Nuguse has continued his fine form into 2024 (Kevin Morris photo)
Make no mistake, this race has some extremely big names and the race for gold is going to be incredible. Josh Kerr and Selemon Barega are both incredible talents in supreme form. But they hand out three medals in this race, not two. After those two, the main guy Nuguse has to worry about is Getnet Wale of Ethiopia. Wale is fit — he’s run 7:26 this season — but he’s not much of a kicker. In fact, Wale has quite a reputation for not medalling as he was 4th in the steeple at the 2019 Worlds, 2021 Olympics, and 2022 Worlds (he was 11th at Worlds last year).
There are a couple other potentially dangerous runners entered in Spain’s Adel Mechaal and Ethiopia’s Telahun Haile, but Nuguse has been in much better form than both so far in 2024. Haile, who ran 12:42 last summer, somehow is on the Ethiopian team despite being only the 10th fastest Ethiopian this winter (7:43).
Realistically, Hocker and Nuguse are both very strong bets to medal but there is more room for wackiness in the 1500. This will be the first global 1500 final without Ingebrigtsen since 2018 World Indoors, and the winning time in that race was 3:58. Meanwhile in the 3000, there are four guys who appear to be much fitter than everyone else right now, and Nuguse is one of them. And if things do go tactical, Nuguse is much better suited to a kick than Wale. That’s why he is very likely to come home from Glasgow with a medal.
