Dark Horse Women’s Contenders for 2024 US Olympic Marathon Squad

By Robert Johnson

February 1, 2024

2024 US Olympic Marathon Trials

The Olympic Marathon Trials is about one thing – who will finish top 3 and secure the coveted Olympics spots.

Yesterday’s main preview of Saturday’s 2024 US Olympic Marathon Trials women’s race presented the six women most likely to take the top spots — Aliphine Tuliamuk, Sara Hall, ~~Molly Seidel~~, Keira D’Amato, Betsy Saina, and Emily Sisson. The argument was that if at least three of these athletes perform well, they are likely to secure all three Olympic spots, given that on their “A game,” it is unlikely for them to be surpassed by any other competitors in the field.

But the race is called a marathon for a reason — it’s a long race and a lot can go wrong. And there were concerns about the injury status of two of the six women, Tuliamuk and Seidel.

Molly Seidel is now officially out of the race with a knee injury. If Tuliamuk isn’t fit either, the chances for someone else to make the team are much higher.

If there is now just a “big 4” and the odds of each one of them individually running a good race are 75%, that means, if the LetsRun.com statisticians can be trusted, that 26.2% of time two or more of them will bomb, leaving open at least one Olympic spot.

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If that happens, one of the following 11 women likely will take that spot.* We came up with these 11 longshot women’s contenders on this week’s edition of the LetsRun.com Track Talk podcast. I present them in order of most likely to least likely to make the team.

*As for our asterisk, there are also two women, Natosha Rogers and Fiona O’Keeffe, making their marathon debuts in Orlando. If they take to the marathon like a fish to water, we expect them to finish above the women below, but we included Rogers and O’Keeffe in the big 6 preview.

(Have you entered our prediction contest? It’s free. Do so now: 2024 LetsRun.com Marathon Trials Prediction Contest Sponsored by Relay)

*TV/streaming information *Course map *All LRC 2024 Olympic Trials content

#1 Lindsay Flanagan – 32, Asics, 2:24:43 pb (16:01/32:04/69:37)

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Why she could make the team: Flanagan was 9th at the World Champs last summer in 2:27:47 showing she thrives in hot conditions and she’s been training for the Trials in Australia, where it’s summer right now.

Why she won’t make the team: Her talent level doesn’t appear to be quite high enough. She’s run 17 career marathons and never run faster than 2:24:43. Fitness-wise, she needs to be at least 5 seconds per mile better than that to make this team. Take her half marathon pb and double it and it’s slower than what Emily Sisson can run for a full marathon.

She was 14th in 2016 and 12th in 2020. Top 10 is achievable.

#2 Sara Vaughn – 37, Puma, 2:23:24 pb (4:04/15:51)

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Why she could make the team: The 37-year-old comes into the Trials in the form of her life as she ran a near 3-minute pb of 2:23:24 to place 10th in Chicago in October after she reluctantly got rid of her husband as her coach and switched to Alistair and Amy Cragg.

She’s surprised the form charts before when she made Team USA for the 1500 in 2017.

Why she won’t make the team: She just improved by 2:59 in her last marathon. She’d probably need another similar jump in fitness to have a legitimate shot at the team and it’s hard to improve your marathon pb by 6 minutes at age 37.

#3 Gabriella Rooker – 36, Nike, 2:24:35 pb

Why she could make the team: The former NCAA DIII gymnast only started training seriously in 2019 and her PBs have fallen like dominoes. The physician’s assistant has PR’d in every marathon she’s ever run — 2:56 in her debut at Grandma’s in June 2021 to 2:34, 2:29, 2:27, and most recently 2:24 in Chicago in October 2023. That improvement is wild and got her a Nike contract.

Why she won’t make the team: The improvement is wild but the improvement is slowing down. She improved 3:03 in her last marathon and even if she chops off 3 more minutes of fitness from that it still may not be enough to make the team as my top 3 are all capable of breaking 2:20 in good conditions on a fast course. It’s basically the same argument as for Vaughn.

#4 Nell Rojas – 36, Nike, 2:24:51 pb (15:37, 31:52, 68:52)

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Why she could make the team: Rojas comes into the Trials in great form. Last spring, she broke 2:25 for the first time ever in Boston and she ran a big 50-second half marathon pb in Houston just 3 weeks ago.

Why she won’t make the team: Rojas, who was 9th at the last Trials, seems to prefer hilly courses.

#5 Emily Durgin – 29, adidas, 2:26:46 pb (15:24/31:33/67:54)

Photo via @em_durgin on instagram

Why she could make the team: The fomer UConn star’s PR came very recently, in October in Toronto in her first marathon finish. Plus her 67:54 half marathon pb indicates she has more meat on the bone. She was also 3rd at USA XC in 2023.

Why she won’t make the team: Is her talent level high enough if everyone else is on her game? She never was even top 100 at NCAA XC or made it to NCAAs on the track.

#6 Lauren Hagans – 37, HOKA NAZ Elite, 2:25:56 pb (15:10/32:01/69:41)

Hagans (r) with NAZ Elite coach Jenna Wrieden. Photo via @haagendazs_86 on instagram

Why she could make the team: The former Baylor walk-on, who was speedy back in the day (2:02.97 800, 4:09.86 1500) didn’t move up to the marathon until June and it went incredibly well as she won Grandma’s in 2:25:56. According to Women’s Running, race broadcaster (and 2012 US Olympic marathoner) Kara Goucher quipped, “She was born to be a marathoner, it just took her 36 years to realize that.”

She’s really found her form on the roads and at the longer distances. Her half marathon pb came in October.

Why she won’t make the team: With most of these women, it comes down to the fact their ceiling is probably at least 5 seconds per mile slower than the peak contenders.

#7 Des Linden – 40, Brooks, 2:22:38 pb (15:08/31:37/70:34)

Desiree Linden winning the 2018 Boston Marathon (photo by Jane Monti for Race Results Weekly)

Why she could make the team: The two-time Olympian was 4th last time out in the Marathon Trials and she’s a former Boston Marathon winner.

Why she won’t make the team: She was only 18th in Boston and 17th in NYC last year, where she ran 2:27 in both races.

#8 Kellyn Taylor – 37, HOKA NAZ Elite, 2:24:39 pb (15:11/31:15/70:16)

Kellyn Taylor in Houston in 2015

Why she could make the team: Taylor is tough as nails and has twice finished in the top 10 at the Trials (6th in 2016 and 8th in 2020).

Why she won’t make the team: She’s getting older and hasn’t been a real force since her latest maternity break (she gave birth in December 2022). She only ran 2:29:48 in New York in November although that did place her 8th.

#9 Molly Huddle – 39, Saucony, 2:26:33 pb (14:42, 30:13, 67:25)

Why she could make the team: My favorite phrase in running isn’t “Talent doesn’t go away.” This is the former American record holder at 5,000, 10,000, and 13.1 who was third in the NYC Marathon in her debut in 2016.

Why she won’t make the team: Talent doesn’t go away but it does get old and Huddle hasn’t been a factor on the US scene since giving birth in April 2022. Plus she’s never really thrived in the marathon. And if she was all-in on the Trials, would she really have run NYC in November? She ran 2:32.

#10 Dakotah Lindwurm – 28, Puma, 2:24:40 pb (16:01/32:47/69:36)

Why she could make the team: The former DII walk-on won Grandma’s Marathon in 2021 and 2022 and ran into her grandpa’s arms right after in 2022. She comes into the race after running a PB in Chicago.

Why she won’t make the team: She lost to four Americans in Chicago (including two on this list and two on our top six list) and she lost to Lauren Hagans at Grandma’s.

#11 Susanna Sullivan – 33, Brooks/TCS, 2:24:27 pb (15:29/31:55/70:50)

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Why she could make the team: The 6th grade teacher ran her 2:24 pb to finish 10th in London in April 2023. Plus one of these amazing storylines has to hit, right (like Sara Hall, D’Amato, teacher making team, etc)?

Why she won’t make the team: After PRing in four straight marathons to take her pb from 2:33 to 2:24, she bombed at Worlds in Budapest where she was only 58th in 2:44:24. She had a good excuse to bomb, however, writing on the Trials website, “I made first Team USA for the World Championships in Budapest but got a patellar stress fracture (super rare) right before but didn’t know it. Doctors said it was bursitis or tendonitis and if I could tolerate the pain, I wouldn’t be making it worse. I finished the marathon on a broken kneecap. It took all fall (swimming a ton!!) to recover.”

Update: Sullivan has pulled out of the Trials with an injury and COVID.

(Have you entered our prediction contest? It’s free. Do so now: 2024 LetsRun.com Marathon Trials Prediction Contest Sponsored by Relay)

*TV/streaming information *Course map *All LRC 2024 Olympic Trials content