Who’s In? Who’s Out? 2016 NCAA Men’s Regional Projections Assuming Everything Goes According To Form

By LetsRun.com
November 9, 2016

Below you will find who is projected to make the 31-team men’s field for the 2016 NCAA Cross Country Championships, to be held on November 19 in Terre Haute, Ind., assuming the NCAA Regional results go according to form and mimic the USTFCCCA’s Regional Rankings.

We’ve put these projections together using a program designed by former Duke runner/Harvard PhD candidate Bo Waggoner. Unlike NCAA basketball, where a committee picks the at-large teams, in cross country, the NCAA relies on a formula for calculating at-large teams (the formula is based on regular-season victories over teams that qualify for NCAAs automatically).

We’ve listed the 18 automatic qualifiers (the top two from each of the nine regions) and then the 13 at-large teams, with the logic behind each team’s selection.

You can view the projected women’s qualifiers here. Again, we’re making these projections BEFORE the regionals have been run.

If you think there is an error or that we’ve left out a team/result/B team, let us know at letsrun@letsrun.com.

Men’s teams

Auto qualifiers

   1 wisconsin
  2 michigan state
  3 georgetown
  4 penn
  5 oklahoma state
  6 iowa state
  7 northern arizona
  8 byu
  9 syracuse
 10 iona
 11 mississippi
 12 middle tennessee
 13 arkansas
 14 texas
 15 virginia
 16 nc state
 17 stanford
 18 ucla

At-large qualifiers

 19 providence
 20 tulsa
 21 indiana
 22 eastern michigan
 23 bradley
 24 colorado
 25 utep
 26 colorado state
 27 southern utah
 28 michigan
 29 oregon
 30 portland
 31 washington state

We’ve gone ahead and made a few assumptions about B teams. Those assumptions are:
-Washington St. at UW Invite
-Eastern Kentucky at Greater Louisville & Pre-Nats
-Air Force at Rocky Mountain Shootout
-Stanford at Panorama Farms

Logic

Automatically selected:
1: wisconsin is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) portland, washington state, colorado state;
2: michigan state is selected, has losses to (roy_griak) portland, boise state, michigan; (wisconsin_invite) portland, washington state, colorado state, southern utah, tulsa, boise state, washington, eastern michigan;
3: georgetown is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) portland, washington state, colorado state, southern utah, tulsa;
4: penn is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) portland, washington state, colorado state, southern utah, tulsa, boise state, washington, eastern michigan, providence;
5: oklahoma state is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
6: iowa state is selected, has losses to (roy_griak) portland; (wisconsin_invite) portland;
7: northern arizona is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
8: byu is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
9: syracuse is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
10: iona is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
11: mississippi is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
12: middle tennessee is selected, has losses to (cusa) utep; (louisville_classic) virginia tech;
13: arkansas is selected, has losses to (pre_nats) oregon; (battle_in_beantown) dartmouth, providence;
14: texas is selected, has losses to (penn_state_natl_open) virginia tech; (joe_piane) utep, eastern kentucky, providence, illinois, southern utah, washington state, california, air force, bradley, eastern michigan;
15: virginia is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
16: nc state is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) portland, washington state, colorado state, southern utah, tulsa, boise state, washington, eastern michigan, providence, florida state, minnesota, south dakota state; (joe_piane) utep, eastern kentucky, providence, illinois, southern utah, washington state, california, air force, bradley;
17: stanford is selected, has losses to (pac_12s) colorado;
18: ucla is selected, has losses to (roy_griak) portland, boise state, michigan; (pac_12s) colorado;

Teams under consideration: portland (9), providence (5), eastern michigan (4), tulsa (4), utep (3), colorado (2), virginia tech (2), bradley (2), oregon (1), florida state (1), columbia (0), texas a&m (0), lamar (0), kentucky (0), indiana (0), navy (0), princeton (0), georgia (0),
Others with points: washington state (7), southern utah (6), boise state (5), colorado state (5), washington (3), air force (2), california (2), eastern kentucky (2), illinois (2), michigan (2), minnesota (1), south dakota state (1), dartmouth (1),
portland not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
19: providence is selected, has losses to (joe_piane) utep, eastern kentucky; (wisconsin_invite) portland, washington state, colorado state, southern utah, tulsa, boise state, washington, eastern michigan; (battle_in_beantown) dartmouth;

Teams under consideration: eastern michigan (5), tulsa (5), utep (4), colorado (2), dartmouth (2), virginia tech (2), bradley (2), oregon (1), florida state (1), columbia (0), texas a&m (0), lamar (0), kentucky (0), indiana (0), navy (0), princeton (0), georgia (0),
Others with points: portland (10), washington state (8), southern utah (7), boise state (6), colorado state (6), washington (4), eastern kentucky (3), air force (2), california (2), illinois (2), michigan (2), minnesota (1), south dakota state (1),
 tulsa wins head-to-head tiebreaker over eastern michigan (relevant meets: wisconsin_invite)
20: tulsa is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) portland, washington state, colorado state, southern utah;

Teams under consideration: eastern michigan (5), utep (4), colorado (2), dartmouth (2), virginia tech (2), bradley (2), oregon (1), minnesota (1), florida state (1), columbia (0), texas a&m (0), lamar (0), kentucky (0), indiana (0), navy (0), princeton (0), georgia (0),
Others with points: portland (11), washington state (9), southern utah (8), colorado state (7), boise state (6), washington (4), eastern kentucky (3), air force (2), california (2), illinois (2), michigan (2), south dakota state (1),
21: indiana is selected, gives no points (pushed in)
22: eastern michigan is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) portland, washington state, colorado state, southern utah, boise state, washington; (joe_piane) utep, eastern kentucky, illinois, southern utah, washington state, california, air force, bradley;

Teams under consideration: utep (5), bradley (3), colorado (2), dartmouth (2), virginia tech (2), michigan (2), oregon (1), minnesota (1), florida state (1), columbia (0), texas a&m (0), lamar (0), kentucky (0), purdue (0), navy (0), princeton (0), georgia (0),
Others with points: portland (12), washington state (11), southern utah (10), colorado state (8), boise state (7), washington (5), eastern kentucky (4), air force (3), california (3), illinois (3), south dakota state (1),
utep not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
23: bradley is selected, has losses to (pre_nats) oregon, colorado, michigan, utep, air force; (joe_piane) utep, eastern kentucky, illinois, southern utah, washington state, california, air force;

Teams under consideration: colorado (3), michigan (3), dartmouth (2), oregon (2), virginia tech (2), minnesota (1), south dakota state (1), florida state (1), columbia (0), texas a&m (0), lamar (0), kentucky (0), purdue (0), navy (0), princeton (0), georgia (0),
Others with points: portland (12), washington state (12), southern utah (11), colorado state (8), utep (7), boise state (7), air force (5), eastern kentucky (5), washington (5), california (4), illinois (4),
 colorado wins head-to-head tiebreaker over michigan (relevant meets: pre_nats)
24: colorado is selected, has losses to (pre_nats) oregon;

Teams under consideration: colorado state (8), utep (7), oregon (3), michigan (3), dartmouth (2), virginia tech (2), minnesota (1), south dakota state (1), florida state (1), columbia (0), texas a&m (0), lamar (0), kentucky (0), purdue (0), navy (0), princeton (0), georgia (0),
Others with points: portland (12), washington state (12), southern utah (11), boise state (7), air force (5), washington (5), eastern kentucky (5), california (4), illinois (4),
colorado state not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
25: utep is selected, has losses to (pre_nats) oregon, michigan;

Teams under consideration: southern utah (11), colorado state (8), oregon (4), michigan (4), dartmouth (2), virginia tech (2), minnesota (1), south dakota state (1), florida state (1), columbia (0), texas a&m (0), lamar (0), kentucky (0), purdue (0), navy (0), princeton (0), georgia (0),
Others with points: portland (12), washington state (12), boise state (7), air force (5), washington (5), eastern kentucky (5), california (4), illinois (4),
southern utah not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
26: colorado state is selected, has losses to (roy_griak) portland, boise state, michigan; (wisconsin_invite) portland, washington state; (u_washington_invite) oregon; (mountain_wests) boise state;

Teams under consideration: southern utah (11), air force (5), oregon (5), michigan (5), dartmouth (2), virginia tech (2), minnesota (1), south dakota state (1), florida state (1), columbia (0), texas a&m (0), lamar (0), kentucky (0), purdue (0), navy (0), princeton (0), georgia (0),
Others with points: portland (14), washington state (13), boise state (9), washington (5), eastern kentucky (5), california (4), illinois (4),
27: southern utah is selected, has losses to (roy_griak) portland, boise state, michigan; (wisconsin_invite) portland, washington state; (joe_piane) eastern kentucky, illinois;

Teams under consideration: michigan (6), air force (5), oregon (5), dartmouth (2), virginia tech (2), minnesota (1), south dakota state (1), florida state (1), utah state (0), columbia (0), texas a&m (0), lamar (0), kentucky (0), purdue (0), navy (0), princeton (0), georgia (0),
Others with points: portland (16), washington state (14), boise state (10), eastern kentucky (6), washington (5), illinois (5), california (4),
28: michigan is selected, has losses to (pre_nats) oregon; (roy_griak) portland, boise state; (big_10s) minnesota;

Teams under consideration: oregon (6), air force (5), dartmouth (2), virginia tech (2), minnesota (2), south dakota state (1), florida state (1), utah state (0), columbia (0), texas a&m (0), lamar (0), kentucky (0), purdue (0), ohio state (0), navy (0), princeton (0), georgia (0),
Others with points: portland (17), washington state (14), boise state (11), eastern kentucky (6), washington (5), illinois (5), california (4),
29: oregon is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

Teams under consideration: portland (17), washington state (14), air force (5), dartmouth (2), virginia tech (2), minnesota (2), south dakota state (1), florida state (1), utah state (0), columbia (0), texas a&m (0), lamar (0), kentucky (0), purdue (0), ohio state (0), navy (0), princeton (0), georgia (0),
Others with points: boise state (11), eastern kentucky (6), washington (5), illinois (5), california (4),
30: portland is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

Teams under consideration: washington state (14), air force (5), virginia tech (2), minnesota (2), florida state (1), columbia (0), texas a&m (0), purdue (0), navy (0),
Others with points: boise state (11), eastern kentucky (6), washington (5), illinois (5), california (4), dartmouth (2), south dakota state (1),
31: washington state is selected, has losses to (joe_piane) eastern kentucky, illinois;