Rock ‘n’ Roll Philadelphia Half Marathon Preview: Bedan Karoki vs. Dejen Gebremeskel, the Return of Kara Goucher, and a World Record Attempt for Deena Kastor
By LetsRun.com
September 19, 2014
The Rock ‘n’ Roll Philadelphia Half Marathon is traditionally one of the fastest races on U.S. soil, and that tradition should continue Sunday morning as elite athlete coordinator Matt Turnbull has assembled another strong field. On the men’s side, the most exciting names are two men famous for their track exploits at the 2012 Olympics: Kenyan Bedan Karoki, who was fifth in the 10,000 and Ethiopian Dejen Gebremeskel, who took silver in the 5,000. There’s also sub-60:00 man Cybrian Kotut of Kenya and Eritrea’s Teklemariam Medhin, a two-time individual medallist at the World Cross Country Championships.
The biggest name in the women’s field from an American perspective is Kara Goucher, who will be racing for the first time since the USATF Outdoor Championships in June 2013. While it’s nice to see the 36-year-old competing again (she was sidelined with a sacral stress fracture), Goucher is unlikely to contend for the individual win. That honor will likely go to Ethiopian Aberu Kebede, who boasts a 67:39 half PR and won the 2012 Berlin Marathon, or two-time NYC Half Marathon champ Caroline Rotich. We preview the men’s and women’s races below.
Those who couldn’t make it
Before we get into the race preview, we quickly wanted to mention a few runners who won’t be on the start line Sunday as to be honest the races has been hit badly by withdrawals. Initially, the men’s field was loaded, as in addition to Karoki and Gebremeskel, it contained two-time defending champ/2014 London Marathon runner-up Stanley Biwott as well as two-time defending NYC Marathon champ/fastest marathoner in history Geoffrey Mutai. American Dathan Ritzenhein was also slated to appear, but he withdrew on Wednesday, citing an ankle injury. The women’s field isn’t nearly as strong as the men’s, so the fact that Worknesh Kidane (67:28 half PR) won’t be running after she was initially entered hurts the field significantly.
Start time: Sunday, 8:00 a.m. ET. *Race website
Men’s Race
The Favorite: Bedan Karoki
Philly is a very fast course, as the U.S. all-comers record of 58:46 was set here in 2011 by doper Mathew Kisorio (though that year’s runner-up, Sammy Kitwara, ran 58:48 and has never been linked to doping). That record may not go down on Sunday, but it could certainly be challenged. Karoki, who enters as the favorite, has been running very well this year and there’s a fast rabbit in sub-60:00 half marathoner Alex Olotiptip.
If you compare Karoki in 2014 to Kisorio in 2011, they’re on similar trajectories; in fact, Karoki has actually been running better than Kisorio did in the buildup to his 58:46. In March 2011, Kisorio won a half marathon in 60:03 (Milan); in March 2014, Karoki won a half marathon in 59:58 (Lisbon; he also ran 60:02 at a half in Japan in May). In June 2011, Kisorio ran 26:54 on the track for 10,000 at the Pre Classic; in May 2014, Karoki ran 26:52 at Pre. Both also ran a major American summer 10k road race — Kisorio was second at Peachtree in 28:04, while Karoki looked very strong in going wire-to-wire to win at Beach to Beacon in August in 27:36.
Karoki is four-for-four in road races this year and more than likely will make it five-for-five in Philadelphia. The hope is that he’ll run a fast time too; the winner only gets $3,500 in prize money, so we don’t see why Karoki would come here if he wasn’t trying to run fast.
Ethiopia’s Dejen Gebremeskel breaks to the tap to win the 2014 B.A.A. 5K in an event-record 13:26, just beating Kenya’s Stephen Sambu (l) and American Ben True (r). (photo by Jane Monti for Race Results Weekly)
The Challengers: How Will Dejen Gebremeskel Fare in his Half-Marathon Debut?
While Karoki is the best guy in the field, the biggest story on the men’s side is Dejen Gebremeskel, who will be making his half-marathon debut. As recently as two years ago, Gebremeskel was exclusively a 3k/5k runner, but he moved up in distance last year, running the 10,000 at Worlds (after he ran 26:51 in June). Now he’s tackling a half for the first time.
Because Gebremeskel has raced just once since April (he ran 13:09 for seventh in the Diamond League 5,000 in Oslo on June 11), it’s difficult to tell what kind of shape he’s in.
If he’s on though, expect Gebremeskel to challenge Karoki for the win — and a very fast time — on Sunday. It’s easy to forget because he’s been away from the DL circuit this year, but Gebremeskel is the fifth-fastest of all time at 5,000 meters on the track (12:46.81). And he’s an exceptional road racer. Gebremeskel has won the Carlsbad 5000 in each of the past four years and added his second straight BAA 5k title in April, defeating Ben True and Stephen Sambu, who has been a beast on the roads this year. In fact, in his eight career road races, Gebremeskel has never finished lower than second — though only one of them came at a distance longer than 5k.
And therein lies the rub. The half marathon distance is over twice as long as Gebremeskel has ever raced. Normally, when a track guy moves up to the half marathon, he’s a little more proven than Gebremeskel is at 10k (Gebremeskel has raced a 10k just twice on the track, and one of them was his 27:51, 16th-place disaster at Worlds last year). Of course, Gebremeskel is extremely talented and has run well in 2014 (7:34 for 3,000 in February, bronze in the 3,000 at World Indoors, those road wins in Carlsbad and Boston), but his lack of races since June and the big step up in distance mean that there is some uncertainty surrounding the 24-year-old Ethiopian. The smart pick is to go with the proven commodity who has run well the entire year — and that’s Karoki.
Did Gebremeskel largely not race on the track this summer (his only 5000 was a 13:09 on June 9th i Oslo) so he could get ready for a career on the roads? Or was there some sort of injury problem? We don’t know but think the latter option is the most likely one (if you know, please email us).
The only other guys with a realistic shot at the win are Kenyans Cybrian Kotut and Geoffrey Bundi, who are also the only men in the field (apart from Karoki) to have broken 61:00. Kotut was the runner-up in Philadelphia, running 59:59, but he’s struggled mightily in 2014 — his only solid performance was a 61:39 showing in San Diego in June, but that was still only good for seventh. Bundi is a bigger threat. He won Bay to Breakers in May and the Utica Boilermaker in July and ran a PR of 60:28 in San Diego in June. Two-time World XC medallist Teklemariam Medhin of Eritrea is also entered, but he has just a 61:47 PR and hasn’t raced since a disappointing 27:38 10,000 at Pre in May. Finally, there’s Hanover, N.H.,-based Kenyan Sam Chelanga, a two-time NCAA XC champ at Liberty who ran 61:04 at the BAA Half Marathon last year.
The Americans
There’s a small prize purse for American runners ($1500 for each gender; top five receive prize money), the best of whom are former Oregon star Shadrack Biwott and Gabe Proctor, who ran 61:25 and 61:40, respectively, in San Diego in June. Jeffrey Eggleston, who was eighth in the Boston Marathon in April, is also on the start list.
U.S. 5,000 champ Bernard Lagat will also be in attendance in Philadelphia, but he won’t be racing the half marathon. Instead, Lagat is running the 5k on Saturday, where he’ll be trying to break Marc Davis‘ American road record of 13:24. Lagat appeared to have broken the record at Carlsbad in March, where he ran 13:19, but the course was found to be 13.5 feet short and thus the record could not be ratified (Carlsbad and Philly are both run by Competitor Group).
Women’s Race
Goucher, husband Adam and son Colt were all smiles after she finished third in the NYC Half in 2011.
The Return of Kara Goucher
Kara Goucher won’t win this race, but she is the one we’ll be paying the most attention to in Philadelphia. Goucher the 2007 World 10,000 bronze medallist on the track and fastest half-marathoner in U.S. history (66:57), has been sidelined with injuries since taking fifth in the 10,000 at USAs in 2013. Philadelphia will be her first race in 15 months and will serve as a key indicator of her fitness ahead of her appearance at the TCS New York City Marathon on November 2.
A lot has changed for Goucher since she last raced, most notably her coach. In December, she left Jerry Schumacher‘s group in Portland and moved back to Boulder to train with her college coach Mark Wetmore. While Goucher is experienced in the marathon, running seven in her career, Wetmore is known mostly as a track coach, so it will be interesting to see how Goucher runs under his tutelage. She also replaced training partner Shalane Flanagan with fellow former Buffaloes Jenny Simpson, Emma Coburn and Shalaya Kipp. While Goucher does run with those three occasionally, she hasn’t been able to train with them nearly as frequently as she could with Flanagan since they are training for much shorter events and Simpson and Coburn spent much of the summer racing in Europe. Flanagan has run well without Goucher, however, so there’s no reason to expect Goucher can’t do the same without Flanagan.
Goucher seems to be happy with where she’s at fitness-wise, even if that’s not where she’d like to be in an ideal world. She told ESPN’s Christopher Chavez earlier this month that she was initially aiming for 71:00 or 72:00 in Philadelphia but that she’s shooting for something a bit faster than that as training has been going well. The women’s field is not as strong at the top as the men’s in Philly, but Goucher is unlikely to contend for the win even on a good day. This is more of a rust-buster and a way for Goucher to get used to racing again. The 13.1 distance is a good one for Goucher to come back in as she’s excelled at it in the past, running a stellar 66:57 in her 13.1 debut in 2007.
The Top Contenders
Twenty-five-year-old Ethiopian Aberu Kebede is the top woman on the start list, and her 67:39 PR is the third-best in the field behind Goucher and 41-year-old Deena Kastor. Kebede has won three marathons in the past three years: Berlin (2012), Tokyo (2013) and Shanghai (2013). Most recently, she was fifth in London in April in 2:23:21. Kenya’s Caroline Rotich is the best bet to challenge Kebede. She has a PR of 68:52 (set in 2011 when she won the NYC Half) and enjoyed a great 2013 season, claiming wins at the NYC Half, the Cherry Blossom 10-miler and the Prague Marathon. Rotich was fourth in the Tokyo Marathon in February (2:24:35) and most recently ran 71:02 at the Garry Bjorklund Half Marathon in Duluth, Minn., in June. Ethiopian Sentayehu Ejigu, who was fourth at Worlds in the 5,000 in 2009 and 2011, will also race in Philly. She ran just 72:05 in her debut half in New Delhi in December; since then, she ran 33:06 for eighth in the World’s Best 10K in Puerto Rico in February and was third in the BAA 5k in April in 15:16.
It should be a great battle between Kebede and Rotich. Kebede is the more accomplished marathoner and has a faster PR, but Rotich has had a lot of success at the half marathon distance, with two wins in NYC and one in Naples in January.
Aside from Goucher, the field also contains the last two U.S. Half Marathon champions in Serena Burla (2014) and Adriana Nelson (2013). Both Burla (70:08) and Nelson (71:09) will be looking to run a PR on the fast Philadelphia course.
Deena Kastor sets the US Masters 13.1 record earliier this year. Photo by Jane Monti for RRW.
And Last But Not Least, The World Record Attempt By An American
There is one more story to be told about the race, however. When it’s all said and done, this may be the biggest one of them all.
The top American in the race might be the 41-year-old Deena Kastor. Kastor already is the US masters record holder at 13.1 thanks to the 71:38 she set in New York in April. She’s got a more ambitious goal for Sunday however. She’s hoping to break the masters world record of 69:56 which was set by Russia’s Irina Permitina on Sept. 13, 2008. Kastor told Competitor that her workouts have been going great, so great that some of them remind her of the work she did before getting a medal at the 2004 Olympics. She’s so encouraged by them she’s even thinking of trying to make the 2016 US Olympic team.
LRC Predictions: Karoki for the men’s win. It’s tough to pick between Kebede and Rotich for the women’s win but we’ll go with Kebede given her much better pb. As for Deena, we predict a new US masters record but no WR for Kastor (Kastor hasn’t run faster than 69:56 since 2010 and has only done so twice since 2007, but it should be close as Philly is way faster than NY).
More: Discuss this race on our messageboard: 2014 Rock ‘n Roll Philly Half preview is up – Make your predictions please, Can Deena Kastor get the WR?
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