November 3, 2013
It’s time for our predictions.
For all of you that still don’t believe that weather has anything to do with the ridiculously fast times in Boston in 2011, which produced a stunning 2:03:02 by Geoffrey Mutai, well your wind-denier status will be severely tested yet again on Sunday when the 2013 ING New York City Marathon is held.
Have you seen the forecast? Well we present the hourly forecast for today’s race from weather.com as of midnight for you below along side a thumbnail of the course map (larger course map here) so you can see the direction of the course.
The course essentially runs north for 21 miles with maybe two to three of those first 21 miles being side to side. That means if the forecast holds up, the runners are going to be running into a head-wind for a long, long time
What does that mean?
It means the times will be slower.
How much slower?
Well we reached out and asked one of the most qualified people on the planet to answer this question, LetsRun.com coaching and stat guru, John Kellogg
Why is John one of the most qualified people? Well having a masters degree in math doesn’t hurt but mainly because he basically predicted the unthinkable in Boston in 2011. Boston had always been viewed as a slow course, but Kellogg said before the race that given the wind, he wouldn’t be surprised if the world’s best time was set in Boston and that’s exactly what happened – 2:03:02.
Here’s what JK had to say about today’s race.
“If it really is that windy out there as they say it is going to be – in the 15 mph range – and it’s in their face for most of the race, I think it will slow them down by at least three minutes, maybe four or more” said John Kellogg. “I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the winning time is over 2:10 in the men’s race and I’d be very surprised if it was under 2:09.”
JK explained to us that head-wind of 15 mph slows you down about 10 seconds per mile, but that’s assuming you are trying to run as fast as possible, something not likely to happen if there is a headwind in your face. When runner’s run into a head-wind, there is often a reluctance to lead so the early pace is even slower than it would be as a result of just the wind. Yes, the runners will get a tail-wind near the end of the race but a tail-wind helps you less than how much a headwind hurts you.
You heard it here first. We expect the New York men’s race to be won in over 2:09 for the first time since Meb Keflezighi won in 2:09:15 in 2009 and wouldn’t be surprised at all if we get the first 2:10 plus win since Martin Lel’s first victory in 2003.
So who wins?
In terms of winners, we are going to say that the favorites come through. Geoffrey Mutai is your winner on the men’s side and Priscah Jeptoo on the women’s.
*Discuss the NYC Weather: 16 MPW headwinds for the first 20 mies of NYC – what does this mean?
More from the LRC Vault from 2011 Boston: Post-Race: *Official John Kellogg Is a Genius Thread (He Predicted The 2:03 on Boston)
*JK Babbles About The 2011 Boston Marathon
Pre-Race:*Once In A (Marathon) Lifetime Conditions Forecast For Boston On Monday