Slow times, and more contenders with 20 miles to go? Maybe they'll go out in 65:00 and the guys like Ryan Vail will be able to tuck in the back? A blazing last 10K through the park? A blazing five miles down 5th avenue and into the park? This will make things very, very interesting.
Because it wasn't going to be interesting without a headwind?
It means a sprint finish in the dust.
beer can wrote:
Because it wasn't going to be interesting without a headwind?
It was going to have an interesting factor of 393.6, now it has an interesting factor of 458.3, an increase of 16% in interestingness. Sorry I wasn't more specific.
Hardloper wrote:
Maybe they'll go out in 65:00 and the guys like Ryan Vail will be able to tuck in the back?
If they go out in 1:05 they'll be faster than most halfway splits at NYC.
The guys who blow up first probably have spent too much time on a treadmill.
Frankfurt last week supposedly had 22mph winds and that didn't slow them down that much.
the long and windy road wrote:
Frankfurt last week supposedly had 22mph winds and that didn't slow them down that much.
Frankfort marathon goes through narrow streets, far from the airport where the weather data is taken. Most important of all, the course runs in an East-West direction.
http://www.bmw-frankfurt-marathon.com/fileadmin/user_upload/starterinfo/Strecke_26_09_2013.pdfThe winds were coming from the south during the first half of the race, then switching to the SSW/SW for the second half. Nothing there to hurt a runner at all.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/ETOU/2013/10/27/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NAmalmo wrote:
If they go out in 1:05 they'll be faster than most halfway splits at NYC.
I was wondering if you would comment since you seem to know a lot about the NYC marathon and/or live there. Have there been NYC marathons with a decent wind from the north in the past and does it affect the race much or do the buildings block it? 65:00 (should have at least written 65:xx) would be historically fast but I think that would be pretty slow with Mutai in the field.
Isn't 16 MPW a pretty slow wind? I did a little calculating and I come up with .095238 miles per hour. That doesn't seem like a whole lot to me.
Hardloper wrote:
I was wondering if you would comment since you seem to know a lot about the NYC marathon and/or live there. Have there been NYC marathons with a decent wind from the north in the past and does it affect the race much or do the buildings block it? 65:00 (should have at least written 65:xx) would be historically fast but I think that would be pretty slow with Mutai in the field.
I ran the 82 nycm mentioned above. It was not fun.
Most cities you have miles of suburbs. and light commercial before reaching a concentrated downtown of modest high rises.
NYC is unique. On both sides you have rivers that act as ventilation ducts bringing an unimpeded fetch of winds right into a long wall of very high buildings. Not a concentrated downtown like most citires but miles and miles of skyscrapers. The buildings dont block the winds they concentrate them. You also have the "canyon effect" which is an urban phenomenon that causes the winds to behave in wild and unpredictable ways. In the winter snow can actually fall upwards!
This years marathon does have a new benefit that the runners, especially high performance elites will notice -- they repaved First Avenue with a nice smooth layer of asphalt. No more rutted concrete hell just as your legs start to fall apart. Combine that with the previous repacement of the Willis Ave Bridge, the DMZ should be much more tolerable than years past.
I only checked a couple of NYC weather sites but it looks more like four to six mph from the left front until the Willis Ave Bridge. Nothing near double digit wind.
You'll feel the wind off The Upper Bay as you cross the Narrows. Early Brooklyn is wide with low buildings so no real canyon effect just straight up you versus the wind.
You will not notice any thing from mile 16 to 18 as you hit the wall of sound on First Ave.
running about in your knickers wrote:
I only checked a couple of NYC weather sites but it looks more like four to six mph from the left front until the Willis Ave Bridge. Nothing near double digit wind.
You'll feel the wind off The Upper Bay as you cross the Narrows. Early Brooklyn is wide with low buildings so no real canyon effect just straight up you versus the wind.
You will not notice any thing from mile 16 to 18 as you hit the wall of sound on First Ave.
Guess I did not check enough does look like 15 plus MPH in Brooklyn.
I ran Frankfurt last weekend and trust me the conditions were not good and it definitely slowed the finish times down. Granted a 2:06 still won, but all the pacemakers bailed by halfway and the part of the course from 28K onwards where we were suppposed to have a tailwind there was no such thing, straight back into the wind again. Sometimes looking at a map online and a weather forecast doesn't give the real picture.
I think the conditions in NY today will make for a big group running together until heading out of the bronx and then someone will try and break it up. Mutai will push at pretty much the same place he did in 2011. At this point Kiprotich will go out the back door and it will be left to Kebede and Mutai in Central Park, Mutai just edging it with a finish of 2:06 or 2:07.
TUCK AND RUN wrote:
Isn't 16 MPW a pretty slow wind? I did a little calculating and I come up with .095238 miles per hour. That doesn't seem like a whole lot to me.
Nicely done
I'm on the the bridge now..its WINDY..and a bit cold because of it
https://fbcdn-photos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/s720x720/558014_10104290707065461_1718551086_n.jpg
i was just on first ave and there is a headwind, which is strong at times. i don't know what it will be like in 2 hours but it's strong enough that it will slow people down. it's also cloudy and 45 out.
Jk was only off by 2 minutes. I wouldn't call him a lucky guesser yet.
Like all LR Marathon Threads there are two camps.
1. Those who ran it and can explain what they felt.
2. Those who got info via internet or TV coverage who are sure negative condition description is an exaggeration.
Typically, the (2) crowd is much more vocal.
The times today were slow by recent year comparison, but typical for NYC Marathon of the past 30 years. That can be attributed to many things. Weather is one factor. Tactics are another (no pace makers here). Stricter drug testing by WMM is another possible factor.