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Why do you insist on some fake #s?? Look at NYC! Ice trucks were brought in for all of the bodies. Why can't you see all of the people dying due to this virus?
reason >>facts wrote:
Keep doing what YOU want to do Americans. Millions will die! Blood is on your hands. The data is very clear on this.
The blood is actually on the hands of those who have been cheer leading the lock down and the destruction of millions of lives not just in the immediate in the long term. The damage you people have caused is incalculable.
Meanwhile Wall St. just walked off with another $6 Trillion while you were sleepwalking through covid country and countless numbers will die due to this.
0.1% once you eliminate all the fake "covid-19-related" deaths that it didn't actually cause.
When will Cuomo order all those "died with covid" presumptions to be reviewed, now that obviously many of them merely reflected the high baseline infection rate and had nothing to do with actual covid disease?
reason >>facts wrote:
Why do you insist on some fake #s?? Look at NYC! Ice trucks were brought in for all of the bodies. Why can't you see all of the people dying due to this virus?
Clearly you have been looking at NYC through your television. Question, why do you think they showed you an ice truck?
The mortality rate will go down. The number of deaths is also inaccurate and over inflated. That will also come to surface as well. Keep in mind:
1) The CDC changed it's decades old protocols for how death certificates are to be filled out- giving a special dispensation to COVID deaths which encouraged an over-reporting of Covid as cause of death;
2) Vague to no distinctions made between those who died with or from Covid- "in cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely, it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.”
3) Many of the tests themselves are controversial to unreliable;
4) According to the CDC website, 2020 was experiencing a rough flu season with a very high number of cases and deaths- but this suddenly and dramatically reversed to coincide with the arrival of Covid19. But this decrease miraculously only occurred only among older adults -flu cases and deaths among the older population in fact continued but got moved into the Covid19 column;
5) Reclassification of COVID deaths in mid March is what was behind artifact of exponential growth of reported deaths since that time in US aimed to suggest extraordinary lethality of Coronavirus;
6) Some number of untested at home deaths are falsely attributed as Covid deaths- NYC officials stated that they WILL NOT be conducting tests on at home deaths nor will they be doing any diagnostics on the cadavers;
7) Remarkable, unprecedented decline in pneumonia deaths reflect false attribution of C19 as cause of death;
NYC officials also confirmed that they will begin to count suspected COVID-19 deaths in addition to cases confirmed by a laboratory. Stephanie Buhle, a spokeswoman for the New York City’s Health Department, confirmed the change in protocol:
“The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner (OCME) and the NYC Health Department are working together to include into their reports deaths that may be linked to COVID but not lab confirmed that occur at home.”
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/30/excess-winter-deaths-in-england-and-wales-highest-since-1976Harambe wrote:
~1% IFR has been pretty standard estimate for months+.
"“Last winter, there were nearly 46,000 excess winter deaths among people aged 65 and over – a shocking 92% of all excess deaths – equating to 379 older people a day. These distressing figures are now the highest we’ve seen in over 40 years.”"
The winter season of 2017-2018 was severe, and yet we didn't shut down the country.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31401203"The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly."
The excess death rate was already 4 times the lowest amount before COVID-19.
The death rate of 0.5% is 5 times the rate of 0.1% for the flu.
Where are you getting an estimate of only a 1% death rate? The news article shows 0.5%.
https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19Harambe wrote:
~1% IFR has been pretty standard estimate for months+.
"This worst-case simulation came up with 2.2 million deaths by simply assuming that 81% of the population gets infected –268 million people– and that 0.9% of them die."
Ok, I found out more about the study, but your figure of "1%" is off. It was 0.9%, and they exaggerated the infection rate.
America has large national parks and long highways. The population density is very low in some parts of the country. It doesn't make any sense that the infection rate would be 81%.
Even in a New York City subway train, people are packed together, and their infection rate was nowhere near 81%.
Also 0.9% is not 0.5% as in the news article, so even that number is off.
facts and reason wrote:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/23/coronavirus-new-york-millions-residents-may-have-been-infected-antibody-test/3012920001stats on stats wrote:
Someone doesn’t know what “confirmed” means.
"suggested a death rate of about 0.5% of those infected because about 15,500 New Yorkers have died of confirmed COVID-19 cases."
This article says 0.5% instead of 0.6%.
That’s confirmed deaths. Your thread title is confirmed cases, and a lie.
Allen53 wrote:
reason >>facts wrote:
Keep doing what YOU want to do Americans. Millions will die! Blood is on your hands. The data is very clear on this.
The blood is actually on the hands of those who have been cheer leading the lock down and the destruction of millions of lives not just in the immediate in the long term. The damage you people have caused is incalculable.
Meanwhile Wall St. just walked off with another $6 Trillion while you were sleepwalking through covid country and countless numbers will die due to this.
Your a liar. You have no credibility.
stats on stats wrote:
That’s confirmed deaths. Your thread title is confirmed cases, and a lie.
Ok, so I made a mistake with the wording. It's an estimate of the number of people with the coronavirus antibodies.
Still, 0.5% is much lower than the 3.4% figure that the WHO came out with. At what percentage do you think we can lift the lockdown?
facts and reason wrote:
stats on stats wrote:
That’s confirmed deaths. Your thread title is confirmed cases, and a lie.
Ok, so I made a mistake with the wording. It's an estimate of the number of people with the coronavirus antibodies.
Still, 0.5% is much lower than the 3.4% figure that the WHO came out with. At what percentage do you think we can lift the lockdown?
The WHO didn't "come up" with 3.4%, as much as they reported that was what China's data showed. But everyone was clear you can't determine the actual mortality rate from China's data, for the same reason you can't use NYC's medical data (until recently) regarding test positives and death - it will yield a number way higher than the actual mortality rate because most people being tested were seeking medical treatment for Covid-like symptoms to begin with.
That said, the 3.4% number was maddening, because although it was data from China from January, it was the only rate US media reported for at least 6 weeks afterwards. They usually qualified the reporting with the reasons above, but as you can tell from the intelligence level on this message board, many people didn't understand anything but the plain number 3.4%.
facts and reason wrote:
[quote]stats on stats wrote:
Still, 0.5% is much lower than the 3.4% figure that the WHO came out with. At what percentage do you think we can lift the lockdown?
How does lock down affect the percentage of infected people dying?
Mondo Hondo wrote:
facts and reason wrote:
Ok, so I made a mistake with the wording. It's an estimate of the number of people with the coronavirus antibodies.
Still, 0.5% is much lower than the 3.4% figure that the WHO came out with. At what percentage do you think we can lift the lockdown?
The WHO didn't "come up" with 3.4%, as much as they reported that was what China's data showed. But everyone was clear you can't determine the actual mortality rate from China's data, for the same reason you can't use NYC's medical data (until recently) regarding test positives and death - it will yield a number way higher than the actual mortality rate because most people being tested were seeking medical treatment for Covid-like symptoms to begin with.
That said, the 3.4% number was maddening, because although it was data from China from January, it was the only rate US media reported for at least 6 weeks afterwards. They usually qualified the reporting with the reasons above, but as you can tell from the intelligence level on this message board, many people didn't understand anything but the plain number 3.4%.
So basically what you r saying is...oh wait nothing at all. Just more stones. Hollow ones
facts and reason wrote:
stats on stats wrote:
That’s confirmed deaths. Your thread title is confirmed cases, and a lie.
Ok, so I made a mistake with the wording. It's an estimate of the number of people with the coronavirus antibodies.
Still, 0.5% is much lower than the 3.4% figure that the WHO came out with. At what percentage do you think we can lift the lockdown?
I think some jurisdictions could lift lockdown restrictions now.
I know that you posted a factually inaccurate thread.
slripe111 wrote:
Mondo Hondo wrote:
The WHO didn't "come up" with 3.4%, as much as they reported that was what China's data showed. But everyone was clear you can't determine the actual mortality rate from China's data, for the same reason you can't use NYC's medical data (until recently) regarding test positives and death - it will yield a number way higher than the actual mortality rate because most people being tested were seeking medical treatment for Covid-like symptoms to begin with.
That said, the 3.4% number was maddening, because although it was data from China from January, it was the only rate US media reported for at least 6 weeks afterwards. They usually qualified the reporting with the reasons above, but as you can tell from the intelligence level on this message board, many people didn't understand anything but the plain number 3.4%.
So basically what you r saying is...oh wait nothing at all. Just more stones. Hollow ones
I probably said something you would think you agree with, if someone was nice enough to dumb it down for you.
You figured out what a model is yet?
Where is the study? Where is the raw data? What antibody test did they use?
The other antibody studies have been a complete fiasco, hopefully this is a good study, but the researchers have not released any information about this study yet, apart from their conclusions. This is weird.
facts and reason wrote:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/23/coronavirus-new-york-millions-residents-may-have-been-infected-antibody-test/3012920001stats on stats wrote:
Someone doesn’t know what “confirmed” means.
"suggested a death rate of about 0.5% of those infected because about 15,500 New Yorkers have died of confirmed COVID-19 cases."
This article says 0.5% instead of 0.6%.
Can't have it both ways: Either you use an estimate of the proportion of the population being infected based on a random pannel and apply it the the whole population of the city and you confront it to the best available estimation of deaths due to this, which is based on excessive deaths compared to same period of time in previous years - and hint, it's a bit more than the 15500 mentionned - or you use deaths of confirmed cases against confirmed cases which is not 20% of the population.
Additional thought:
Deaths wont stop overnight. Even if you magically stop contaminations.
You could argue there is a lag too between contamination and testing positive for antibodies. It's still too early to derive a death rate from NYC numbers. Your 0.5 estimation looks like a bare minimum.
Oh and I believe NYC population to be 8.4M
So 21% of it is 1.764M
Deaths as of today for NYC: 16338
16338/1,764,000*100=0.92619
Where does the 0.6 figure comes from? you might ask. Maybe the study is several days old. That just reinforce my point of it being far too early to jump on that type of conclusion.
I have another idea for you: just gather the numbers for every other chinese area than Hubei. Calculate the Death rate using two different methods (one taking into account all cases, the other taking only resolved cases). Easy to do it with JHU's dashboard. Numbers might have evolved since, because China did admit more deaths recently, and also an higher case count, but when I did this (sorry, I won't redo it), I found 0.9% to be a rather solid estimate of death rate.
That being said, it really looks like obesity is a huge factor in the odds of having a severe form of the disease and in the death rate. Guess where obesity is a problem?
stats on stats wrote:
Allen53 wrote:
The blood is actually on the hands of those who have been cheer leading the lock down and the destruction of millions of lives not just in the immediate in the long term. The damage you people have caused is incalculable.
Meanwhile Wall St. just walked off with another $6 Trillion while you were sleepwalking through covid country and countless numbers will die due to this.
Your a liar. You have no credibility.
He is telling the truth here.
Go away.