MIAC XC 2020

D1MIAC :)~ wrote:

The MIAC 5000m depth is legit.

+1

I also think the 800/1500 depth is shaping up to be good, we are in for something great at the championship meet!

All 5k times should come with an asterisk. 13:58 with cheaterflys is basically 15:05 with spikes.

VaporflyAC wrote:

All 5k times should come with an asterisk. 13:58 with cheaterflys is basically 15:05 with spikes.

Im so sick of this take. Go run 90 miles a week all summer, go through xc season, indoor, and outdoor and then tell me that the shoes are what made you fitter. Heck, run 13:58 in anykind of shoes you want then come back and complain.

The man ran sub 9 and sub 14 in the span of five days. Good to see Mueller back in form too. I expect he'll rip the 10K looking for a qualifier.

What are your picks?

4 x 800 should be fun, but I'll pick the Tommies.

800 - I'm going with Gifford beating a tired Middendorf after his 800/1500 double.

1500 - I probably should say Middendorf, but I'll go with Smith

5000 - Wilkinson lets Mueller win in his final Carleton race for an easy 1-2 finish.

10,000 - Haire is to smooth for Mueller but both run sub 30:30

Steeple - Wilkinson

I'll say it again, Mueller beats Haire in the 10K, but both go under 30

Tommies win in the 4X8, Oles 2nd

MIACoverWIAC wrote:

I'll say it again, Mueller beats Haire in the 10K, but both go under 30

Tommies win in the 4X8, Oles 2nd

Real close on the predictions there! Carleton would've had a shot if Fong hadn't gone so hard to open the third leg. Would've been fun to see what Wilkenson could've done if he were a bit closer upon receiving the baton.

Just realized how SCARY the oles are looking for next year's track season. They will have the top two returners in the 1500 in Kosche and Cassidy, plus another finalist from this year in Massanari. In the 5K, they'll have the top returners in terms of both time (Kosche), and place at conference (Curtis). They will also have the top returner in the 10,000 with Bocovich coming in 4th place in his first time running the distance! The rest of the MIAC should be absolutely terrified

St Olaf got surprised by Carleton in 2017 XC, and has insisted every year since then that a horde of ascendant underclassmen will retake the MIAC and Central Region, and return to national competiveness.

Don't get caught flexing in the mirror AGAIN. Don't assume it will fall into your lap because of who you return and who Carleton doesn't return.

2021 XC Picks

St. Thomas would dominate with their young group. Lucky for all you that they are moving on to bigger, better things.

1. Carleton - the coaching staff is just too good. Look at what they've done with the group outside of the big two.

2. Gustavus - I could be convinced they are the favorites. Didn't have the best conference meet other than Stumbo, but too much talent to ignore.

3. St. John's - Most of the talent is in the 1500m, but another of training in Collegeville will have them ready. Maybe even a top two team.

4. St. Olaf - too much talk and a coach they don't like won't mix well.

5. Concordia - Probably wrong here, but I enjoyed watching their top returner run with Mueller/Wilkinson for a couple laps in the 10K

6. Hamline - their coach really knows his stuff and he's a great recruiter.

7. Bethel- Maybe too high. They're really young. Could be better than this ranking.

8. Macalester - I've heard rumors of a big class from all over the country. Does their coach talk?

9. St. Mary's - Can they ride Meaden to a top seven finish?

10. Augsburg - New coach coming in will have some work to do.

Miac Predictions:

1. Who Cares

Summit League Predictions:

1. SDSU

2. St. Thomas

3. NDSU

4. South Dakota

5. North Dakota

6. Oral Roberts

7. Purdue Fort Wayne

8. Western Illinois

Hey, don’t sleep on St. Scholastica. Could be some upsets out there

Mac and Carleton have more or less the same recruiting pool (high achieving rich kids from all over the country - i.e. prime runner material) - it's crazy how much better Carleton has been the last 10-15 years. Does Carleton still have that guy with the mustache as coach? I think he also used to wear Hawaiian shirts or something fun like that. Dude must be doing something right.

The only part I agree with you here is that your top four will definitely be the top four at MIAC. Really just a different tier than the rest.

Below I wrote out from tfrrs the top 5 5K times from each team this season, now that the dust has settled. (Only returning runners.)

Carleton:

Lavey 14:48 - Nakasaka 15:02 - Santos 15:23 - Sather 15:42 - Bowman 15:50.

Gustavus:

Hinchcliffe 15:14 - Grant 15:29 - Knutson 15:48 - Payne 16:03 - LaVigne 16:08.

St. John's:

Young 15:02 - Goldsmith 15:24 - Diekmann 15:39 - Grand 15:57 - Nemanich 15:58.

St. Olaf:

Kosche 14:43 - Kelly 14:55 - Curtis 14:58 - Bocovich 15:04 - Ellefson-Carnes 15:13.

Looking at this can be somewhat misleading. For one, Santos and Bowman of Carleton focused on the steeple for outdoor instead of 5K. If the 5K this season, I'd have pegged Santos around 15:00 and Bowman 15:15, they're both very talented runners and Ricks will make sure they've effectively switched gears and are ready to fight for 8K all-conference spots. Similarly, St. John's has two solid 1500 underclassmen like you said (Allen 3:58 and Hensel 4:05) that will both almost certainly be scorers for the Johnnies in the fall for XC. (Or I sure hope so, the otherwise the Johnnies seem more or less sunk for top 3.)

Still. From this I don't know how anyone could not put St. Olaf in the top 2. They've been tossed like a salad by Carleton the past few years, and the dude Ricks knows how to peak better than any other coach in the MIAC. But from what Olaf did this season of outdoor it certainly looks to me they've got the horses to be 1st or 2nd. A lot of St. Olaf runners got a lot faster this season. Is it just a coincidence that Kosche flailed like a fish his first two years under their old coach, then improved dramatically not long after their new one took the helm? Who's to say for sure, but looking at the other Olaf no names that burst on the scene this season (Curtis / Bocovich are the top two returners in the 5K/10K respectively? ...Who?) it sure doesn't seem like a coincidence.

IMO.... 1 and 2 - toss up between Carleton and Olaf, 3 St. John's, 4 Gustavus.

I agree on the Carleton/Olaf battle. While on paper Olaf's track times look a little better, Carleton has proven cross country performers and experience. Olaf has the building blocks to put together a winning team, but right now my money is (slightly) leaning Carleton.

Does anyone have a list of incoming freshmen that will make an impact on these teams?

This MN Milesplit college commitment website is sparse this year.

https://mn.milesplit.com/signings

I'll put St. Scholastica at 5th for now. If they bring in a good class, might put them ahead of St. Olaf into 4th.

What a last chance for the Tommies!

Tommies show out! Smith and Gifford are the real deal and punch tickets to nationals

Also learned Kosche is transferring home to Boise State. This won't be the last D3 to D1 transfer in the next few weeks. Hearing a certain freshman Johnny may make the move to St. Paul.

Who are you d1MIAC the world wants to know

Probably Pete Wareham