[quote]RuningManJumpSuit wrote:
"Reporting on a virus that has spread world wide and killed thousands is not a hoax no matter what happens."
All we know is what we are told by the Oligarch owned media. I personally don't know a soul sick with this thing and the local hospital is quiet.
"If the death tolls come in lower than expected then it’s proof that social distancing, testing and quarantine work."
No its not. All it proves is that the projections were high.
If this was a bad as it has been said to be, at least those employed occupational sectors of retail and hospitality would be dropping like flies everywhere.
pick one wrote:
Which close family member (mom, dad, sibling, child) would you be willing to let die to get everyone back to work?
You ask this question as if you didn't or your parents didn't have to work to shelter, feed, clothe, and educate your children or maybe you and your siblings.
idel wrote:
If this was a bad as it has been said to be, at least those employed occupational sectors of retail and hospitality would be dropping like flies everywhere.
The narrative is being revised to explain why the death totals projections we have been fed are going to turn out to have been way too high.
realism smacks you in the mouth wrote:
joedirt wrote:
One of my favorite quotes of his is from the UCLA commencement speech, "Accept the world for what it is, work hard to exploit the opportunities it presents, and try to do so in as just a manner as possible."
It's great that you and he see a global pandemic and lots of death as an opportunity to be exploited!
You also apparently have a shared lack of empathy.
Pretty sure he was not talking this "global pandemic" that had not yet occurred at the time of his speech.
Giles Corey wrote:
idel wrote:
If this was a bad as it has been said to be, at least those employed occupational sectors of retail and hospitality would be dropping like flies everywhere.
The narrative is being revised to explain why the death totals projections we have been fed are going to turn out to have been way too high.
The revised narrative won't stand up to reason based on what I said. Retail employed people across the nation have effective density and exposure as bad as in the worst hots spots.
joedirt wrote:
student of economics wrote:
Burry is autistic. He can be a high IQ person in or more realm but Burry has emotional intelligence deficits. He did not go to college or graduate school to study economics. I am not going to listen to the social science opinions of a man who washed out of medicine and by the time it was all said and done, washed out as a hedge fund manager.
First off, you are wrong, he got dual degrees as an undergraduate in Economics and Pre-med. He graduated from medical school and did a neurology and pathology internship at Stanford Medical while writing financial articles for Microsoft and investing money. He went into finance because it was his passion, not because he "washed out" of medicine. He even keeps up his medical license. Saying he "washed out as a hedge fund manager" is like saying Seinfeld "washed out of television". He pulled a Costanza and left on a high note because he was tired of being threatened with lawsuits by investors and audited by the government because he was able to see something that nobody else did.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVTP8xZCGVw
Are you sure Burry has dual degrees? His wikipedia page states Burry studied economics and pre-med. Pre-med is not a college major by the way. Medical schools have required courses one needs to take. Stating one studied economics is a way to enhance one's resume while working in financial services industry. No matter. If Burry only took principles of macro and principles of micro or if Burry left college with 24 semester hours of economics, so what. Nothing he learned in school stuck. I do not like to pick on him. He has diminished emotional intelligence. Economics is a social science. Some professors love to make economics a calculus course. Economics like all social sciences are group psychology. Psychology is a blind spot for Burry.
Burry did wash out as a resident.
Burry was not the only one who knew markets were over valued and banks were burning down in 00s. 1) Bill Clinton repealed Glass-Steagall, 1999. 2) By 3rd or 4th quarter, 2005, the largest N.Y.S.E. full service investment firms were all firing more financial advisors than they were hiring. 3) Yield curve was inverted since 2006. That means Overnight Fed Funds Rate and Discount Rate (one or so day loans) were at a higher yield than 10 year U.S. Treasury Bonds. Inverted yield curve usually is a sign of pending recession. 4) Burry was not the only one who knew of s h i t mortgages bundled and traded by quantitative traders as A bonds (or better). Thousands knew s h i t was going to hit the fan. Thousands knew but could do little about it and certainly could not profit from the knowledge. If an investment analyst or financial advisor quit and held or attempted to hold a press conference, would anyone have cared? I am not going to consider Burry a genius.
From UCLA:
http://www.econ.ucla.edu/news/Burry%20bio-Oct2011.pdf
"Graduating with an economics degree in 1993". That's nice you don't consider him a genius. I think someone that has a medical degree and an economics degree and is able to accurately predict when a giant housing bubble is going to burst and creates the financial instrument that would allow him to profit off of it is a genius. You must fall over with such a large cranium on top of your body for you to not consider him to be a genius.
It's is b.s. lie that Burry was the first one to predict banking and economic collapse in 00s. I know he was not. You have your own agenda. You have made numerous posts stating you do not like the coffee shops, pubs and sport events shut down. You want to prop up Burry because he agrees with you. No one care what Burry has to say. You chose to ignore the four points I made pointing toward a banking and economic downturn during 00s. This my last post on this thread. I am not going to repeat myself.
joedirty wrote:
Who TF is Michael Burry? wrote:
Who TF is Michael Burry and why should we care what he thinks? Is he an epidemiologist?
Well. Since you asked, he is an MD. But he also has one of the greatest mathematical minds on the planet. Instead of following the medical path laid before him, he decided to go full time into investing. He is borderline Aspergers, a high functioning form of autism, that helps him to invest logically without emotion (imagine a better version of Rain Man). He is probably one of the smartest people on the planet. He is as close as you can find to an impartial observer. He was the first to really identify and create the financial instrument to short the housing bubble.
An epidemiologist like Fauci only cares about not over burdening the health system. They care nothing about the economy and the impact a tanking economy would have on People’s lives (40,000 people die for every 1% rise in unemployment through suicide, poor health, crime, alcoholism, drug abuse, etc.). So the choice is do we continue to strangle the economy for six months until a vaccine is available to save primarily 70 + year old people with 2 or so pre-existing conditions (that’s what the data tells us) and watch as the economy crumbles around us and people lose homes, take lives, etc. or do we restart the economy and just quarantine those at greatest risk while the young and healthy deal with the infection and gain immunity and save lives and livelihoods.
I agree with pretty much everything here except the 40k deaths for 1% unemployment. This was a movie moment with no proof.
lol @ #StayHomeSoHard And I can't even hypothesize a greater virtue signaling opportunity than mask wearing. It's got it all.
Kvothe wrote:
Allen53 wrote:
The other smaller but very loud group are the “#StayHomeSaveLives” who now have a platform to perform in, it's their newly minted melodrama where they get to play some kind of "hero of humanity" and gain meaning from participating in this "movement."
I think there is something to this. There seem to be people trying to see who can stay home the hardest. They're well intentioned, but their need for their staying at home to have meaning beyond they wont spread the virus and they are nonessential employees unfortunately can't be met and will just lead to mental anguish. The rest I don't agree with.
I'm going to have another cookie.
PAR wrote:
I'm not sure Michael Burry - who, according to Wikipedia, is a professional investor - is someone who has an unbiased view on ending the shutdown.
The only way the economy recovers is if people feel safe to return to the old normal.
1.) We are all biased regarding the economy...because we all depend on it to pay for survival.
2.) Your assumption is that everyone is scared. There are a lot of people who are not afriad of our own shadows who accept that all life has a certain amount of risk.
Renato Corona wrote:
lol @ #StayHomeSoHard
And I can't even hypothesize a greater virtue signaling opportunity than mask wearing. It's got it all.
Kvothe wrote:
I think there is something to this. There seem to be people trying to see who can stay home the hardest. They're well intentioned, but their need for their staying at home to have meaning beyond they wont spread the virus and they are nonessential employees unfortunately can't be met and will just lead to mental anguish. The rest I don't agree with.
QFE
you don't play the game well wrote:
two can play that game wrote:
How many economically influenced drug addictions and suicides will you trade to keep your 90-year-old grandmother alive for an extra 6 months?
People who die of drug addiction and suicide willfully make those decisions. People who die from the corona virus don't go looking for a virus dealer or order extra viruses from their doctor. The also don't pick up a corona virus and blow their brains out or slit their wrists.
Hmmn - and yet there are a vast majority of people being affected by this (those outside of the people at high risk of flu and colds every winter) who "willfully made decisions" to compromise their health through smoking, vaping and leading unhealthy lifestyles that opened themselves up to getting sick from this. In essence it is this group we are protecting (because we don't go into societal shutdown for the elderly or health compromised every flu season now do we?)
My point is made, now f--k off.
joedirty wrote:
Who TF is Michael Burry? wrote:
Who TF is Michael Burry and why should we care what he thinks? Is he an epidemiologist?
Well. Since you asked, he is an MD. But he also has one of the greatest mathematical minds on the planet. Instead of following the medical path laid before him, he decided to go full time into investing. He is borderline Aspergers, a high functioning form of autism, that helps him to invest logically without emotion (imagine a better version of Rain Man). He is probably one of the smartest people on the planet. He is as close as you can find to an impartial observer. He was the first to really identify and create the financial instrument to short the housing bubble.
An epidemiologist like Fauci only cares about not over burdening the health system. They care nothing about the economy and the impact a tanking economy would have on People’s lives (40,000 people die for every 1% rise in unemployment through suicide, poor health, crime, alcoholism, drug abuse, etc.). So the choice is do we continue to strangle the economy for six months until a vaccine is available to save primarily 70 + year old people with 2 or so pre-existing conditions (that’s what the data tells us) and watch as the economy crumbles around us and people lose homes, take lives, etc. or do we restart the economy and just quarantine those at greatest risk while the young and healthy deal with the infection and gain immunity and save lives and livelihoods.
So whose decision is that? Doesn't Trump have a labor secretary, a commerce secretary, and economic advisers? Why is a health adviser like Fauci, who is not even part of the administration, leading him around by the nose. Blaming someone like Fauci is ridiculous. It's the President's job to make these kind of decisions
Not a trump fan. Media always demands “theater” and “experts”.
Just because Michael Burry predicted the housing market crisis doesn’t mean he’s going to be correct about every theory he has for the rest of his life.
joedirt wrote:
Here is a good analysis from Michael Burry. Right now, we have the economy shut down to preserve the lives of a few at the expense of the many (and yes, economic damage results in deaths as well, likely more deaths than the virus itself).
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-short-investor-who-made-a-killing-during-the-financial-crisis-the-economic-shutdown-is-worse-than-the-coronavirus-2020-04-07?mod=home-page
I want this guy to be president
YMMV wrote:
It will be interesting to see how this stat gets affected in 2020:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Total_suicides_in_the_United_States_1981_2016.pngWill corona top 48,000 deaths (2018 suicides)?
Even if corona kills 100,000 (twice the normal flu/pneumonia figure), it will represent a little over 3% of typical mortality. the average person has nearly thirty times the likelihood of dying from heart disease or cancer, and many of those are from younger cohorts than corona.
You are making false equivalencies. The big difference between COVID and heart disease, cancer etc is that you can't catch heart disease or cancer by walking down the street. Those conditions also generally develop insidiously and only kill after a prolonged time living a normal enough life. The average time between COVID symptoms and death is about 10 days.
