Sad, Frustrated Coach wrote:
zzzz wrote:
After this initial shelter in place order, if Alaska aggressively contact traces and the numbers stay low, and we don't let anyone in who hasn't been quarantined, we will get out if it relatively well, though the tourist economy will be down the tubes.
Like I said in the previous post, the main idea of testing is so you can decide what to do with people, including letting those that are definitely not sick (not just asymptomatic) get back out of the house. It's that what people want?
I'm guessing you mean "Isn't that what people want?"??
How sure are we that those that test negative for the test aren't carriers but just not at the point yet that shows up on the test? Are we sure those that have had it and have recovered can't catch it again? Are we absolutely sure how it is transmitted and how it can be caught?
Yes, that's what I meant. (I make a lot of editing errors because I don't get my thoughts out straight and am always rewriting sentence - and don't really proof read afterwards for message board posts.)
You can make sure someone that tests negative is really negative if you quarantine them for more than the incubation period (typically 4-5 days, maybe 14 days to be safe to catch all cases) before giving them the test and getting a negative. The procedures might vary with country, but I read that patients that are listed as "recovered" have to recover from symptoms, be isolated a further 7 days and test negative twice before listed as recovered in China.
There are some reports are people re-catching it, but it's not known if it's "re-activated" in some people, testing error, actually getting it again, or something else. Most experts are confident having it should confer some immunity. Some immunities last a lifetime, some last 6 months (think booster shots for some vaccines). No one knows for this virus because it's new. Using spun-down plasma containing antibodies from recovered people has been used to treat patients in China.
We know the virus sheds from the mouth, nose, and feces. When a virus infects someone, it binds to ACE2 receptors, which are in mucus membranes of the eyes, nose, mouth, lungs. It leaves an infected person through droplets (think water) expelled from the mouth and nose when sneezing, coughing, talking/singing, breathing. The droplets are various sizes. Large sizes fall quicker, may be sprayed farther. The smallest droplets are aerosols, which can hang in the air a long time and can be breathed directly into the lungs (as well as get into eyes).
Droplets get sprayed or fall on surfaces and your clothing. If hasn't been on a surface too long (exact time they survive varies between studies and different materials), you could transfer that from your skin to your face.
There are a lot of unknowns, such as just how big a dose of the virus is needed to infect someone, proportion of infections from breathing it in vs. touching dirty surfaces, etc. It was said to primarily be (larger) droplet spread, but now more consideration is being given towards it spreading though the air (thus the talk about masks).
I'd avoid pit toilets, outhouses, and port-a-potties. The stench is aerosolized poop. Poor shower drain traps that let sewer gases into bathroom showers, combined with ceiling fans pulling that gas out, was pinpointed as how SARS was spread in a Hong Kong housing high rise in 2003. The fecal-oral route might also be substantial transmission route. I saw it diminished in some reports, but highlighted in others (such as speculation of what happened on cruise ships).