Why are 50 percent of the virus deaths in NY/NJ? Any ideas why Chicago and LA have not blown up?

Raspy wrote:

Stopwatcher wrote:

Density but also tourism and travel. Let's remember New York City is the most travel to destination. It's also a major hub for international flights to stop and have changeovers

And air pollution is another big one. Chronic exposure to dirty, toxic air plus being old is recipe for disaster when exposed to a strong respiratory virus.

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/nyc-among-smoggiest-cities-nation-report-says

Additional info on the connection with air pollution & COVID-19:

"Patients struck with the previous Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2002 and 2003 and who lived in regions with moderate air pollution levels were 84% more likely to die than those in regions with low air pollution, according to a 2003 study."

"Even the latest diesel engines emit dangerous levels of pollution. Patients with chronic lung and heart conditions caused or worsened by long-term exposure to air pollution are less able to fight off lung infections and more likely to die. This is likely also the case for Covid-19. By lowering air pollution levels we can help the most vulnerable in their fight against this and any possible future pandemics.’"

58&stillsavage wrote:

Kvothe wrote:

In California, they are not testing nearly enough. LA, San Diego, San Fran Bay area are probably much worse than they seem. I worry the testing is giving people a false sense of security and that CA is about to blow up. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see any reason why LA would be exceptional.

How can San Diego be much worse then it seems? At the least, there has to be more people in the hospital before it can be "worse than it seems".

The number of cases is growing exponentially

Maybe, its only as bad as it seems. I can only fear that the number of cases is days away from making the jump seen in other big cities. I hope I'm wrong, and this is at or near the peak of the curve, but I think saying don't worry until hospitals are overwhelmed is naively hopeful. What we need to worry about is the hospitals becoming overwhelmed in the first place.

Bad Wigins wrote:

It could all, literally, be a simple matter of reporting deaths with the virus vs deaths because of the virus. Those who do the former will have vastly inflated numbers compared to the latter.

bob888 wrote:

I have no idea why all the damage seems to be in NY area...any ideas??? Wouldnt Chicago, NY,SF, be just the same ??

Reasons why NY/NJ have been hit so hard:

1.) High population density in NYC metro with people largely relying on tightly packed public transport

2.) Lots of immigrants and foreign travelers in that area

3.) Being coastal with a major international airport, lots of people traveling to NY through JFK and La Guardia airports

4.) Major tourist city

5.) Lack of testing available early on allowed this to spread quickly before action could be advised to slow the spread

Also, Chicago is also overwhelmed by this right now too. They aren't as bad a NY yet, but my future sister-in-law is a nurse in Chicago and said it's a mad house there right now. They have so many COVID19 patients that her hospital had to set up tents in the parking lot to treat COVID19 patients. They don't have enough N95 masks, so they only get 1 per day. Usually they get a new one after each patient, to avoid spreading germs b/w patients. She was sick with COVID19 symptoms for a week and was still asked to come to work and they refuse to test her. The entire nurse team for the ER has it now and had to be sent home, making them short on nurses (not sure why they were tested and sent home, but sister-in-law was not, but that's what I was told. Everyone is being asked to work as much as possible even though they normally only work 4 days a week.

CA is doing everything to flatten the curve, so it's not overwhelming like in NYC.

As far as who is "hit hard," just wait.

Kvothe wrote:

In California, they are not testing nearly enough. LA, San Diego, San Fran Bay area are probably much worse than they seem. I worry the testing is giving people a false sense of security and that CA is about to blow up. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see any reason why LA would be exceptional.

That may be , but the CA deaths are still only 10% of NY

Anecdotal. I’m sure there are elements of truth, but probably embellished as well.

Japan was not hit hard due to lack of hugging or shaking hands, not wearing shoes in the house, cleanliness of public toilets and restaurants, and clean water and air. NY is notorious for most of these offenses while the Midwest is not. The US has different customs in different states which will cause the outcome to be different.

smarter than a dummy wrote:

Funny how the places with the most shutdowns and restrictions end up having the most cases. It mirrors the rest of the world. Check Belarus and compared to Italy.

It’s all about timescales my dear Watson. The virus was prevelant in northern Italy for some time (massive Chinese population in Milan). Belarus will have its day in the sun...

Now this IS an interesting post.

ageing ruber wrote:

Raspy wrote:

Additional info on the connection with air pollution & COVID-19:

https://www.transportenvironment.org/news/air-pollution-probably-increasing-coronavirus-death-rates-experts

"Patients struck with the previous Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2002 and 2003 and who lived in regions with moderate air pollution levels were 84% more likely to die than those in regions with low air pollution, according to a 2003 study."

"Even the latest diesel engines emit dangerous levels of pollution. Patients with chronic lung and heart conditions caused or worsened by long-term exposure to air pollution are less able to fight off lung infections and more likely to die. This is likely also the case for Covid-19. By lowering air pollution levels we can help the most vulnerable in their fight against this and any possible future pandemics.’"

Now this IS an interesting post.

Hardest places hit within countries are all transport hubs:

Milan; Madrid; Wuhan; New York; London.

Lots of international travel and travellers.

Underground systems.

Lots of air pollution.

Louisiana and Florida ...

florida is sadly a suburb of NY, particularly Jan-March.

New Orleans had mardi gras, which is equivalent of skiing in the alps in Europe to transmit virus.

California has far greater purchasing power than other states because of their size.

Another consideration: Will warmer climate help to suppress the virus in our southern states? - Hope so!

Stopwatcher wrote:

Density but also tourism and travel. Let's remember New York City is the most travel to destination. It's also a major hub for international flights to stop and have changeovers

It's also worth noting what people do in New York vs. California during January, February and March. People go to New York to go to Broadway, eat at fancy restaurants, shop, etc. (indoor activities for the most part) and do so in taxis, ubers, the subway, etc.. People go to California to go to the beach, go to a theme park, go to Yosemite, go see the Golden Gate Bridge, etc. (outdoor activities for the most part) and typically do so driving in the glorious California traffic. Take a guess which lifestyle is going to put you more in contact with coronavirus.

Weather also plays a role:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615381/coronavirus-spread-could-slow-with-warmer-weather/

I have no idea. My guess would be NY is one of the most cosmopolitan cities in the world.

I don't like to speculate on matters of science since my last course in that field was at a community college many years ago (got an A on that bad boy).

I can't help but notice that some people seem to be wetting themselves with glee over this crisis. IMHO, what's happening now, while tragic, is just a small blip on the scope. The real fallout is going to be several years down the line when the full impact of the cratering of the global economy begins to felt. You guys won't be wetting yourselves with glee then.

Luv2Run wrote:

One possible reason is that people infected from Wuhan and/or Italy traveled the NYC area.

*coronavirus

& yeah, Chicago is much more spread out as others have stated.

I’m in Chicago, and it’s bad here. They just turned the McCormick place into a 3000 bed hospital.

715 cases, 18 new deaths today.

Now our numbers are not like New York.

One of the main reason is that Chicago is not testing like New York or Jersey. That’s the main problem. New York has ramped up testing.

Chicago numbers are down because they are not testing everybody. It’s quite sad....

And since we discovered that China has been underreporting their death tolls and cases, it makes me question Chicago’s numbers.