Daily deaths in America attributed to Covid are @ 25% of what they were at peak
Although the number of deaths due to Covid can clearly be manipulated to push the narrative, it is far harder to cook the books on death numbers than it is to cook them for new cases.
Giles Corey wrote:
Daily deaths in America attributed to Covid are @ 25% of what they were at peak
This is good, and part of the reason is that treatment have become better, and the hospitals are not overwhelmed like they were in New York.
And then. There is a 4 week delay from number of cases rise to the daily deaths are in conjunction with those numbers.
Important point, the hospitalizations and death rate will be a key indicator of treatment progress. Isolation of nursing home populations should help on the death rate. The understanding of co-morbidities and Covid-19 should lead to earlier intervention would should also decrease fatalities.
SprintTriathlon wrote:
Giles Corey wrote:
Daily deaths in America attributed to Covid are @ 25% of what they were at peak
This is good, and part of the reason is that treatment have become better, and the hospitals are not overwhelmed like they were in New York.
And then. There is a 4 week delay from number of cases rise to the daily deaths are in conjunction with those numbers.
I have been hearing the wait four weeks and you will see how bad this is since late February.
It never seems to get here.
I was suspicious from the get about this story but kind of bought it at first. I did think in early March that we will see it's impact in real life by the end of March is its truly a pandemic.
Have yet to see it other than on Tv , newspapers, the internet
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Important point, the hospitalizations and death rate will be a key indicator of treatment progress. Isolation of nursing home populations should help on the death rate. The understanding of co-morbidities and Covid-19 should lead to earlier intervention would should also decrease fatalities.
Florida is trying to be pretty aggressive in monitoring and safeguarding nursing home residents. Nursing homes, assisted living facilities, etc., are shut down to visitors. As an example, my father, who lives in an assisted living facility, has been tested four times (one of which occurred after a therapist seeing him tested positive).
Currently, Florida has a reported 2200 contact tracers. Their case load overnight increased by 10,000. Serious question: how do they manage that caseload?
So how much has the recent protests contributed to the spread of covid?
Are you a total moron? There is an obvious delay between increase in case count and increase in death count. It may not be 4 weeks but to argue against this literally defies common sense as well as the data of the last few months. Prior to this more recent, bigger and more widespread spike the 7 day moving average of case counts peaked on April 10th with a subsequent spike to 7 day moving average death count peaking on April 21.
Others are right in pointing out that treatment has improved and the cases seem to span a broader demographic given an increase in testing ability. That said, I would expect death counts to pick up over the next 7-10 days substantially given the spike of the last week.
On a slightly different note here is an email I received from a now retired family friend who spent decades in the healthcare informatics field. To say that this individual is apolitical and simply follows the data is an understatement. Sorry for not including the graph.
—
I’ve seen mention in the press of large increases in the South, but little about just how serious this is. Most epidemiologists measure the intensity of the spread using daily rates per 1 million population. Below 50 per 1M is regarded as a benchmark for cautiously relaxing closures. Miami is now well over 400. But it’s the rate of increase that is most alarming. Miami-Dade increased by 213 in the last week, matching the worst weeks we saw in the beginning of the epidemic in New York. And the growth rate appears to be accelerating. Next week could end up being the worst week ever for any US city.
I’ve seen mention of the high numbers in the press, but nothing prepared me for this graph. This is an exponential epidemic that’s completely out of control. And Miami is no exception. Charleston may be in worse shape than Miami. Scroll down and you’ll see a map of counties where rates are increasing in the South. Rural Mississippi, South Florida and coastal South Carolina are completely out of control.
[quote]highhoppingworm wrote:
Are you a total moron? There is an obvious delay between increase in case count and increase in death count. It may not be 4 weeks but to argue against this literally defies common sense as well as the data of the last few months.
Been waiting for four months to see this increase that is always just a few weeks in the future.
On a different tack, why is the virus basically over in the rest of the world but supposedly surging in much of America? Are Americans just far more susceptible to viruses? Seems unlikely. Even places like Sweden which implemented far less draconian measures than every state in America.
Daily deaths in Sweden now close to 0 after peaking at over 100.
agip wrote:
7 day averages of deaths, each hitting new highs:
FL: 41
AZ: 38
CA: 65
....
In FL, the six days from May 6th through May 11th each saw a higher 7 day average, with May 8th and 9th both averaging over 50 deaths / day for the preceding 7 days.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Important point, the hospitalizations and death rate will be a key indicator of treatment progress.
There is no such thing as the "death rate" because the true number of infections is not known. Nor is the likelihood of a known case dying a meaningful statistic, when there is no means of comparing the number of known cases to the true number of infections.
There's no such thing as the "death count" either. Authorities have plainly admitted that this is not a count of people known to have died of coronavirus. It's a pile of "maybes."
It's no surprise you're a coronaphobe, since you always so fervently hope for economic collapse.
Spain -- 444 new cases, 5 deaths
Italy -- 201 new cases, 30 deaths
France -- 659 new cases, 30 deaths
Germany -- 393 new cases, 3 deaths
!
I’d be curious what the case numbers and deaths would be if the US used similar counting methodologies. Florida has been purposefully massaging the numbers to make them look better (they fired one of their lead data people at DOH b/c she didn’t want to go along with tweaking numbers to meet reopening benchmarks).
I saw recently that only the PCR test results get counted in official tallies... but all of the ‘essential‘ workers at restaurants etc are waiting in line at the same-day test results places (e.g. antibody tests) so they can get cleared to work:
https://news.wfsu.org/wfsu-local-news/2020-06-29/not-all-leon-county-residents-who-test-positive-for-coronavirus-get-counted-in-the-health-departments-total-numbersbubbadeeboos wrote:
[quote]
Spain -- 444 new cases, 5 deaths
Italy -- 201 new cases, 30 deaths
France -- 659 new cases, 30 deaths
Germany -- 393 new cases, 3 deaths
!
I’d be curious what the case numbers and deaths would be if the US used similar counting methodologies. Florida has been purposefully massaging the numbers to make them look better (they fired one of their lead data people at DOH b/c she didn’t want to go along with tweaking numbers to meet reopening benchmarks).
Right. When you are using fear to push narrative you underplay the danger. Real believable
It's just a mask.
It's just two weeks.
It's just non-essential businesses.
It's just to keep from overwhelming the hospitals.
It's just until cases go down more.
It's just to keep others from being scared.
It's just for a few more weeks.
It's just communion or singing. You can still meet.
It's just until we get a vaccine.
It's just a few side effects.
It's just a bracelet.
It's just to let people know you're safe to be around.
It's just an app.
It's just to let others know who you've been in contact with.
It's just a few more months.
It’s just a video.
It’s just an email account.
It's just for protecting others from hate speech.
It's just a few people.
It's just a credit card company. You can use cash.
It's just a few places that don't take cash.
It's just a little chip.
It’s just for medical information and paying for things.
It’s just so you can travel.
It’s just so you can get your driver’s license.
It’s just so you can vote.
It's just for a few more years.
It's just a statue.
It's just a building.
It's just a song.
It's just a few words.
It’s just a piece of paper.
It's just a book.
It's just a movie.
It's just a flag.
It's just a piece of cloth.
It's just a blood test.
It's just a scan.
It's just a chip.
It's just a dog.
It's just a clump of cells.
It's just the bad people.
It's just the undesirables.
It's just the men.
It's just the Christians.
It's just the people that don't think like we do.
It's just... wait...
It's NOT just a mask.
Florida's been cooking the books all along the way. It's not just waiting a long time to do even relatively widespread testing (public free tests are handled by counties, not the state); it's also firing a data scientist and suppressing positive tests. It's not counting "non-residents," in a state that has millions of snowbirds and tourists, meaning that you're cutting out a lot of the deaths from old people and a lot of cases from foreigners. It's not going away in the rest of the world. There are, say, four categories: 1) countries that got it early and shut it down (e.g. China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand); 2) countries that got hit hard but have suppressed it down to low levels (France, Spain, Italy, Belgium); 3) regions that got it a bit later and are doing badly now (Latin America and probably much of Africa); 4) countries that got it early and let it come back big time (the United States).
Giles Corey wrote:
bubbadeeboos wrote:
[quote]
Spain -- 444 new cases, 5 deaths
Italy -- 201 new cases, 30 deaths
France -- 659 new cases, 30 deaths
Germany -- 393 new cases, 3 deaths
!
I’d be curious what the case numbers and deaths would be if the US used similar counting methodologies. Florida has been purposefully massaging the numbers to make them look better (they fired one of their lead data people at DOH b/c she didn’t want to go along with tweaking numbers to meet reopening benchmarks).
Right. When you are using fear to push narrative you underplay the danger. Real believable
You think Ron DeSantis wants higher case numbers? You've proven to be a pretty big moron throughout your character's "stay" on LRC but this is idiotic even for you.
Giles Corey wrote:
I have been hearing the wait four weeks and you will see how bad this is since late February.
It never seems to get here.
It never seems to get here? Holy crap, 125,000 Americans are dead, and you don't think it already got here months ago? You're not just a paid troll, you're a moron.
666,000 Americans have been dying EVERY single year for years from heart disease and NOW you are concerned about Americans dying. Better late than never. Thank you for caring so much!
real info wrote:
Giles Corey wrote:
I have been hearing the wait four weeks and you will see how bad this is since late February.
It never seems to get here.
It never seems to get here? Holy crap, 125,000 Americans are dead, and you don't think it already got here months ago? You're not just a paid troll, you're a moron.
Actually over 132,000 now.
