"Part of the drop could be caused by migrant workers -- who often have one subscription for where they work and another for their home region -- canceling their work-region account after the virus prevented them from returning to work after the Lunar New Year holidays that began in late January, said Chris Lane, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co."
o98hbn wrote:
Wuhan-398 wrote:
China probably has had +30 million plus die, not 3000.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.htmloh holy $hit
Here is a chart of their cell phone users by month from 2018-19. In a couple month period it drops by 11 million users, but I really doubt they all died. If people went on quarantine and couldn't work I could see why a lot of people would have to budget it out. Not that I know anything about China, that at least seems reasonable.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/278204/china-mobile-users-by-month/The number of cases is fairly meaningless because there are loads of unconfirmed cases in every country. It just depends on how broad a sample of the population is tested. The more meaningful stat is deaths per million people. That is a better indicator of the overall spread and the effectiveness of curtailment measures and treatments in a given country.
Crowd Sorcerer wrote:
If people went on quarantine and couldn't work I could see why a lot of people would have to budget it out.
"China introduced mandatory facial scans on Dec. 1, 2019, to confirm the identity of the person who registered the phone. As early as Sept. 1, 2010, China required all cellphone users to register phones with their real identification, by which the state can control people’s speech via its large-scale monitoring system.
"Furthermore, Chinese people’s bank accounts and social security accounts are bundled with their cellphone plans; apps on Chinese phones check SIM cards against the state’s database to make sure the number belongs to the user."
Spain, some nursing homes abandoned by health care workers, some with alive and dead patients:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/spains-coronavirus-crisis-uncontrollable-care-124656020.html
Italy: Various industries that make materials for hospital equipment prepare to go on strike tomorrow:
The government has said a number of industrial sectors, including medical suppliers, must keep operating during the crisis, but there is growing unhappiness amongst some unions who think the prescribed list of strategic concerns is too wide.
Workers in the metal, chemical, textile, rubber-plastic and paper industries are expected to go on strike on Wednesday, alarming the government, which is holding talks with unions to try to stave off the stoppages.
So now that we know true infection rates were 30x higher than detected in Wuhan, we can somewhat predict the course in NYC, though they are presumably testing more widely there. Assuming these things:
) New Yorkers won't wash their hands or self-quarantine. Fuggedaboutit!
) therefore it will take ~40% infection rate for R to drop below 1
) they have ~20x higher infection rate than tested
Then with 15,000 confirmed cases, the real number is 300,000, or already 3.75% of their 8 million population. This should already be enough to reduce the growth rate by reducing R, which could show up within 5 days or so in the testing numbers if they correlate well with the trends in actual infections. To reach the ~3 million cases needed for R < 1 and cause an actual reduction in new cases, infection rates need to increase by a factor of 10. For average growth rate scenarios this would take
40%: 7 days
30%: 9 days
20%: 13 days
15%: 17 days
10%: 25 days
Add a few days for the R <1 to play out in the real world, and that's about how long NYC has before their charts inexorably trend very quickly to 0.
This illustrates how slowing the growth rate drastically prolongs the time for the epidemic to run its course. Presumably the current 125 deaths per 300,000 cases will hold steady for a total of 1125 deaths. I'm sure NYC can handle that within 25 days, but I'm also pretty sure they could handle it within 9 days.
This shows the inherent foolishness of the panicky Flatteners: by assuming the worst case in every instance, they're preventing faster resolution of the problem in most cases. Economically, the longer it takes, the worse things get, and that costs lives too. The strategy should have been, right from the start, to quarantine the vulnerable, which has little economic impact. Then allow the virus to spread as quickly as it could among the rest of the population. This could have been achieved very quickly simply by not closing the schools. It's been handled wrong from day 1.
Bad Wigins wrote:
BLah Blah Blah Blah
Trying to look smart, sounding dumb. again.
For someone who attempts to use math so often, you'd think you would be better at it by now.
There are more people dying from COVID every day in the US than you said there would be new cases of.
How'd that math go for you?
PS.....how's that "No Recession" forecast looking?
Bad Wigins wrote:
There are more than 6,000 hospitals in the US, and only 1040 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Even in the unlikely event that the case load increases by a consistent 5% per day, there will still be only 2600 cases 20 days from now. The hospitals would have to flip a coin to see who gets one.
Hey Bad Wigins, that's a great prediction you made there.
I'll bump this up again 20 days after the day you made the prediction.
San Diego county Local casino has signs outside saying they will re-open April 1st. That's a surprise. Maybe they are just trying to keep people on the hook and will change it to a later date , but there it was big as day and in disagreement with every other institution's most optimistic time frames.
idel wrote:
San Diego county Local casino has signs outside saying they will re-open April 1st. That's a surprise. Maybe they are just trying to keep people on the hook and will change it to a later date , but there it was big as day and in disagreement with every other institution's most optimistic time frames.
I wouldn't bet on it.
They're taking a gamble wrote:
idel wrote:
San Diego county Local casino has signs outside saying they will re-open April 1st. That's a surprise. Maybe they are just trying to keep people on the hook and will change it to a later date , but there it was big as day and in disagreement with every other institution's most optimistic time frames.
I wouldn't bet on it.
Yeah , I know, cashed in your chips?
Great post Bad.
Bad Wigins will get people killed wrote:
Bad Wigins wrote:
There are more than 6,000 hospitals in the US, and only 1040 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Even in the unlikely event that the case load increases by a consistent 5% per day, there will still be only 2600 cases 20 days from now. The hospitals would have to flip a coin to see who gets one.
Hey Bad Wigins, that's a great prediction you made there.
I'll bump this up again 20 days after the day you made the prediction.
Go ahead. I enjoy seeing you think you can nitpick your way to beating me in a debate. Let the people see that's all you've got, as far as there even is a "you."
If you could parse English, you'd realize that wasn't even a prediction - it was examination of a contingency. Consistent 5% growth would have produced that result. There was plenty of reason to consider that unlikely, because they had yet to roll out the massive testing program that went beyond the very ill and their contacts.
Wuhan400 is the grim reaper. It will be so anticlimactic when doomsday doesn't come? Maybe he can get a job at a haunted house scaring children during Halloween. I seriously think he wants the end of the world to come so he can be right. Probably the most excitement people like him have had in years.
relax bro wrote:
Bad Wigins wrote:
BLah Blah Blah Blah
Trying to look smart, sounding dumb. again.
For someone who attempts to use math so often, you'd think you would be better at it by now.
There are more people dying from COVID every day in the US than you said there would be new cases of.
How'd that math go for you?
PS.....how's that "No Recession" forecast looking?
From what I’m seeing, Wiggins is more on target than the hysterics are. We haven’t even hit 1,000 deaths yet, yet you guys were predicting tens or hundreds of thousands.
Bad Wigins wrote:
If you could parse English, you'd realize that wasn't even a prediction - it was examination of a contingency. Consistent 5% growth would have produced that result. There was plenty of reason to consider that unlikely, because they had yet to roll out the massive testing program that went beyond the very ill and their contacts.
I am becoming more and more sure you are getting paid by Russia to spout this stuff. What a flip flop here combined with the balls to lie bold-faced about a statement everyone can read in front of them. The only other person I know of who does that is President "we're going substantially down, not up" Trump.
Daily NEW Cases In USA:
March 5: 63
March 6: 98
March 7: 116
March 8: 106
March 9: 163
March 10: 290
March 11: 307 (thread opens and Bad Wigins says, "only [total] 2600 cases 20 days from now")
March 12: 396
March 13: 550 (553)
March 14: 696 (587)
March 15: 737 (843)
March 16: 983
March 17: 1748
March 18: 2848 (2853)
March 19: 4530 (4582)
March 20: 5595
March 21: 4824 (4825)
March 22: 9339 (9400)
March 23: 10168 (10189)
March 24: 11100
Daily New Deaths (USA):
March 21: 46
March 22: 113
March 23: 141
March 24: 225
Bad Wigins wrote:
Bad Wigins will get people killed wrote:
Hey Bad Wigins, that's a great prediction you made there.
I'll bump this up again 20 days after the day you made the prediction.
Go ahead. I enjoy seeing you think you can nitpick your way to beating me in a debate. Let the people see that's all you've got, as far as there even is a "you."
If you could parse English, you'd realize that wasn't even a prediction - it was examination of a contingency. Consistent 5% growth would have produced that result. There was plenty of reason to consider that unlikely, because they had yet to roll out the massive testing program that went beyond the very ill and their contacts.
'wasn't a prediction...blah blah blah'.......dude you were implying that people predicting 100,00 cases were morans. You can't spin your way out of this. You were blatantly wrong and most people were smart enough to see that early on. You were not.
You also said no recession.......and we're heading straight into one.
Your record is poor.
LA Mayor Erioc Garcetti also responded to the death, stating overnight: "I was informed by the county that this individual did not have pre-existing conditions. It’s a sober reminder that anybody can die from this disease."
The Sun can report that the minor was a 17-year-old who went to hospital with respiratory problems, but was denied testing.
Parker Valby post 5k interview... Worst of all time? Are Parker Valby interviews always cringe?
2024 College Track & Field Open Coaching Positions Discussion
MSU men > NAU by 1 point even though Nico Young and Colin Sahlman tripled!!
Start Lists for the Men's and Women's Mile/1500 at Pre are up
Do Australians consider their culture closer to Britain's or America's?
What is the worst insult anyone gave you about your running ability and how did you respond?