10 DAYS TO COLLAPSE, warns Tom Bossert former Homeland Security Advisor

Wuhan-400 wrote:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/doesnt-even-look-real-los-angeles-morphs-ghost-town-amid-covid-19-outbreak

Just a heads up, the freeways in Orange County have still had quite a bit of traffic. The 91 eastbound on Friday had slightly less traffic than normal at 3pm, but you wouldn't have been able to run across all lanes to the other side without getting hit quickly.

30% unemployment? Wuuuhh? what are even talking about? ? ? ?

I thought you said just this week that there was not going to be a recession, brah

havetosay wrote:

Not sure I believe all Wuhan's post, but the N95 shortage does reflect what we see on the ground.

I do wish someone had taken this seriously earlier and started trying to get more supplied into the pipeline in time.

I know everyone wants to believe that the hospitals are bursting at the seams and that is why there is a shortage of masks, but that simply is not true. The reason we are running out is because now healthcare workers glove up for just about everyone and everyone that gets tested for COVID, requires a new set of PPE. Maybe at some point the healthcare system will be overwhelmed, but that's not what is happening right now. Shortages are because of more testing and more caution dealing with people who present with symptoms that previously would not have warranted full PPE.

BTW, this Wuhan person is the Let's Run version of the National Enquirer.

“There was a proposal to isolate people coming from the epicenter, coming from China,” Palù told CNN. “Then it became seen as racist, but they were people coming from the outbreak.”

Dr DoLittle wrote:

BTW, this Wuhan person is the Let's Run version of the National Enquirer.

Luckily, Americans in general value a human life a lot more than you do.

Bad Wigins yet again illustrates his ignorance of exponential growth. On average 1,322 have died each day this year of the seasonal flu (recent flu deaths have been dropping as a result of quarantine measures). Yesterday 1,634 died of COVID-19. This is not the typical seasonal flu (it is closer to H1N1 without the vaccine to limit it) and it will get worse for two weeks before it gets better. A week ago that number was 686, the week before that it was 228. Those numbers are less than they would have been without drastic measures in places like China. You will see these numbers taper off in the next week or two to something that is controllable (no more exponential growth) and when it does the markets will react positively. Had China not taken the measures they took back in January, about 5,000 people each day in China would be dying from COVID (and likely closer to 10,000 globally if this were allowed to run through the population unchecked). The real threat to public health will be to hospitals getting overrun, as it will cause people to not just die of COVID, but all of the other maladies for which hospitals exist in the first place. Obviously COVID will be with us going forward, but with people taking cautionary measures until a vaccine or treatment is in place (which will likely be sooner rather than later as never has medicine been as amazing as it is now) we can likely limit its spread. People in South Korea and Japan seem to have it mostly under control with social distancing, hand washing and people wearing masks.

The economy will move forward. Those industries that are being most severely impacted (airlines, cruise ships, movie theaters, dining establishments, etc.) will find innovative ways to adapt and restore consumer confidence (like giving airline passengers masks to wear on their flight along with a bottle of hand sanitizer) to their industries or they will go to the wayside and people will spend money on alternatives or the medical industry will develop a treatment or vaccine (similar to the H1N1 vaccine) and that will restore confidence. Or people will simply be better about washing their hands. A couple of years down the road, the system will have adapted. See this time as an opportunity to buy things when they are under valued because of some of the irrational responses people are having.

I'll admit, I am a little bit lucky. I spent the past couple years holding cash and paying off real estate loans because I felt stock prices were inflated. Now I am debt free (own my home and some commercial real estate free and clear) and sitting on a pile of cash and it is a buyer's market (I put some into securities last week, and it went down some, but it was 30% higher a couple of weeks ago and should be good in a couple of years). I will buy some more in the near future, and down the road in a year or so, I will scoop in and buy some distressed real estate or REIT funds at bargain prices). This panic and the bear market it creates may end up being the best economic opportunity of your life.

************************************************

Well, you're right about BW being a *moron*. You got that part right, for sure.

The rest of it? We'll see. You're *awfully* optimistic. The idea that we're already right on the edge of a world-wide taper of growth in cases and deaths seems a little ridiculous.

More likely we'll see a brief taper as Italy (hopefully) and Spain (hopefully) do in fact show a serious flattening,... and then another gigantic spike as the US and most of Europe skyrocket in deaths as soon as the infected have a chance to start dying (and the hospitals get completely crushed, as they have in Italy and Spain).

Then, if we're lucky, we may see *another* flattening as *those* places finally slow down,... and then another *gigantic* spike as the rest of the world finally gets sick --or starts to report *real* numbers, when they realize they can't really cover them up any more.

We've seen *nothing* from Russia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, ALL of Latin America, ALL of Africa.

Do you actually think no one's getting sick in all those places?

If you think the world-wide daily deaths is about to hit its all-time peak (in the next week or two, as you said), and then drop from there, I'm pretty sure you're living in a fantasy.

And the same is probably true for the economic damage. If you think we're right at the *worst* of it, and will be starting a bountiful recovery in a few more days, you're probably about to make some really bad investments.

Is it *possible* it'll be a relatively short-lived disruption? Yeah, I guess it might be.

It's also very possible it'll be a world-wide Depression (like one that cuts GDP by a very large fraction) that lasts for a couple of *years*.

If you think stocks are *cheap* now, you're probably in for some serious disappointment.

John Paul Watson is a bigoted lying w@nk.

P.S. The only really optimistic thing in today's numbers is that Italy's new-case number has dropped a lot. IF that's legit --and it's not blown up by a late-night adjustment or something-- it's a promising indicator that the same thing might be coming elsewhere.

But we (the US) have blown *way* past Italy's growth-curve in the last few days, so even if it does happen there, assuming it'll automatically happen here, and in the same way and on the same schedule, may be a big mistake too.

And assuming it'll work the same way in Kinshasa, or Sao Paulo? We'll see.

[quote]sp2 wrote:

The rest of it? We'll see. You're *awfully* optimistic. The idea that we're already right on the edge of a world-wide taper of growth in cases and deaths seems a little ridiculous.

More likely we'll see a brief taper as Italy (hopefully) and Spain (hopefully) do in fact show a serious flattening,... and then another gigantic spike as the US and most of Europe skyrocket in deaths as soon as the infected have a chance to start dying (and the hospitals get completely crushed, as they have in Italy and Spain).

Then, if we're lucky, we may see *another* flattening as *those* places finally slow down,... and then another *gigantic* spike as the rest of the world finally gets sick --or starts to report *real* numbers, when they realize they can't really cover them up any more.

We've seen *nothing* from Russia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, ALL of Latin America, ALL of Africa.

Do you actually think no one's getting sick in all those places?

I think in a lot of those places (namely Africa and Latin America), people spend a lot of time outside, so I think the rate of transmission there will be fairly minimal. Things like malaria, Zika, Dengue and other mosquito borne diseases will be far more impactful. New Zealand and Australia should be good for now as it is summer down there and their populations are fairly spread out (although we might see some bump in the winter time as people head indoors). India and Bangladesh are a bit of a wildcard due to their rapid industrialization, their tightly packed populations and their terrible air quality. But again, the virus seems to have a harder time spreading in warmer climates. Places like Russia, Canada and Australia are very spread out, so I would expect the threat there to be significantly less.

Jesus, man, you're making some *really* weak arguments. If you're planning investments based on that 'narrative,' I wish you luck.

(As just one little example, there is still ZERO evidence that warm weather shuts down the virus.

Yet every denialist on the board continues to tout it as the thing that's 'guaranteed' to save us.

Amazing.)

The US infection numbers are blowing up because we are testing a lot more people due to the public outcry over wanting to be tested. That is why there is such a broad range of mortality statistics between countries (Italy has about a 1 to 10 ratio between confirmed cases and deaths vs a country like Switzerland that has a ratio of 1 to 75, because Switzerland is not just testing the hospital cases). Ultimately the death curve is the one to keep an eye on, which, although it is a lagging indicator, it doesn't have the testing criteria discrepancy. The number of deaths in Italy per day seems to have flattened and even dropped slightly, which is promising. Deaths lag policy changes by 3-4 weeks.

Where is this collapse the OP predicted?

treh wrote:

Where is this collapse the OP predicted?

He ran away.

How typical!

Bad Wigins wrote:

The disease has killed a shocking total of 400 Americans. It could be 1000 times that many and still not justify the catastrophic response. America saw a roach and set the house on fire to kill it.

And within 15 hours of you writing this the death count is 573. It is growing at an alarming rate even WITH all the precautions that we are taking.

treh wrote:

Where is this collapse the OP predicted?

We’ve pretty much done exactly what Bossert recommended:

Bossert specifically suggesting that “School closures, isolation of the sick, home quarantines of those who have come into contact with the sick, social distancing, telework and large-gathering cancellations must be implemented before the spread of the disease in any community reaches 1 percent.”

His prediction was qualified by us not taking action:

“If we fail to take action, we will watch our health-care system be overwhelmed,” he warned, “Starting now, public health messaging should be framed in light of this clear objective.”

foo wrote:

Bad Wigins wrote:

The disease has killed a shocking total of 400 Americans. It could be 1000 times that many and still not justify the catastrophic response. America saw a roach and set the house on fire to kill it.

And within 15 hours of you writing this the death count is 573. It is growing at an alarming rate even WITH all the precautions that we are taking.

Holy cow ... what drives all these hysterical alarmists who insist on going bat-shi* crazy over this? According to their predictions last week, shouldn’t the death count be 200,000 already?

joedirty wrote:

The US infection numbers are blowing up because we are testing a lot more people due to the public outcry over wanting to be tested. That is why there is such a broad range of mortality statistics between countries (Italy has about a 1 to 10 ratio between confirmed cases and deaths vs a country like Switzerland that has a ratio of 1 to 75, because Switzerland is not just testing the hospital cases). Ultimately the death curve is the one to keep an eye on, which, although it is a lagging indicator, it doesn't have the testing criteria discrepancy. The number of deaths in Italy per day seems to have flattened and even dropped slightly, which is promising. Deaths lag policy changes by 3-4 weeks.

Yes, the death-numbers in Italy look like they might finally be flattening out.

Everyplace else (or damn close) they're either already rising or *about* to rise dramatically when the system gets swamped.

(The US is basically the only place in the world where the death-*rate* has actually been steadily dropping. I expect that will last a few more days at best.)