Another day, another huge drop (nearly 2,000 points at this time).
Any other great market advice from the extreme right wing, Sally?
Another day, another huge drop (nearly 2,000 points at this time).
Any other great market advice from the extreme right wing, Sally?
Working it's way to dip below 20,000 and erasing all gains during Trump's presidency.
If you buy now, you will look like a genius in a couple years. Life will return to normal.
unless it bottoms out at 5000 instead of 20000.
joedirt wrote:
If you buy now, you will look like a genius in a couple years. Life will return to normal.
Or if you wait a couple weeks or maybe months, you may look like even more of a genius, laughing at those that bought now.
Or are you guaranteeing that this is the low point?
If you had a handful of money and could only pick one day from now until the rest of the year to invest it, would you put it all in today?
And during his whole time as president, trump never learned to read!
We as a nation have failed to educate him. We’ve thrust him into the spotlight without providing any coping skills.
Poor boy.
X-Runner wrote:
joedirt wrote:
If you buy now, you will look like a genius in a couple years. Life will return to normal.
Or if you wait a couple weeks or maybe months, you may look like even more of a genius, laughing at those that bought now.
Or are you guaranteeing that this is the low point?
If you had a handful of money and could only pick one day from now until the rest of the year to invest it, would you put it all in today?
Of course not. You invest it in increments ... like 20% this month, 20% next month, 20% the next month, and so on. This Coronavirus is not the Black Plague. The markets have tanked because of undercertaintity. Once the investing public has some certainty about this thing, the markets WILL take off. It could happen in the next 2 months, it could happen by July or it may not happen til November or December. BUT, it WILL happen and those buying in now will eventually have just made themselves a 50% profit, roughly, if they buy in today.
Sally Vix wrote:
X-Runner wrote:
Or if you wait a couple weeks or maybe months, you may look like even more of a genius, laughing at those that bought now.
Or are you guaranteeing that this is the low point?
If you had a handful of money and could only pick one day from now until the rest of the year to invest it, would you put it all in today?
Of course not. You invest it in increments ... like 20% this month, 20% next month, 20% the next month, and so on. This Coronavirus is not the Black Plague. The markets have tanked because of undercertaintity. Once the investing public has some certainty about this thing, the markets WILL take off. It could happen in the next 2 months, it could happen by July or it may not happen til November or December. BUT, it WILL happen and those buying in now will eventually have just made themselves a 50% profit, roughly, if they buy in today.
uncertainty.
Anyway
Almost a 3,000 point drop today
Pretty ugly. And pretty close to the opening on Trump's inauguration.
It'll come back.
But the thread title suggests it's on it's way back now.
X-Runner wrote:
Anyway
Almost a 3,000 point drop today
Pretty ugly. And pretty close to the opening on Trump's inauguration.
It'll come back.
But the thread title suggests it's on it's way back now.
My exuberance was perhaps premature. I indicated it was going to be a rough ride but I have always stated that by July or August it would have returned close to what it had been.
Sally Vix wrote:
Of course not. You invest it in increments ... like 20% this month, 20% next month, 20% the next month, and so on.
A few weeks ago you claimed you invested $100k in Trump's market. Was that a lie?
X-Runner wrote:
But the thread title suggests it's on it's way back now.
The three title suggested it was back over 5000 point higher ago.
Even after today's blood bath, S&P 500 P/E ratio is still above historic mean and historic median.
CNN Business is quoting Goldman Sachs on CNN Business Page. Goldman Sach is saying 16% further down with a rapid recovery.
IMO, who gives a s h i t what Goldman Sachs says? G.S. engages in Rent Seeking. They kiss ass to top people in government and G.S. makes it their mission to have senior personnel float through revolving door of G.S. and top jobs in federal government. G.S. is not the largest financial firm in U.S. Not even close. Do you remember top guys at G.S. begging Warren Buffet to bail them out in 2008?
Pre-Alan Greenspan, Fed Chair, 1987 to 2006, normal S&P 500 P/E ratio was 10. I cannot say U.S. equities are cheap today.
If you try to time it too close, you miss out entirely. Don't buy if you are trying to time it to the second, minute, hour, day. Buy for 10, 20, 30 years from today. Look at the long term curve and right now, you are below that curve. There have been panics and before, and the market has always come back. Get some stocks or funds that are good dividend payers and hold it. The Oracle of Omaha didn't get where he is by freaking out. He got there by being bold when others were meek and cautious when others were bullish. He was holding a lot of cash recently because stocks were inflated. Now that they are coming back down, I would expect him to start buying. Especially with cheap money, cheap stocks and low taxes. The only real threat is a Democrat getting elected and increasing the corporate tax rate (that is part of the reason for the decline in the stock market). A little over 7,000 people have died from Wuhan virus in 4 months. That compares to 153,400 people that die globally each day from normal causes.
[quote]green screen Quotrons wrote:
Even after today's blood bath, S&P 500 P/E ratio is still above historic mean and historic median.
P/E ratios today are higher than historic means because the corporate tax rate is 21% instead of the usual 35%. With lower taxes on dividends for share holders, the stocks carry a higher valuation. The greatest threat to this would be Biden (28%) or Bernie (35%) getting elected, which is part of the reason for the dramatic recent drops (in addition to Coronavirus fears).
Wrong, coronavirus is now. November elections are the dark side of the moon.
joedirt wrote:
[quote]green screen Quotrons wrote:
Even after today's blood bath, S&P 500 P/E ratio is still above historic mean and historic median.
P/E ratios today are higher than historic means because the corporate tax rate is 21% instead of the usual 35%. With lower taxes on dividends for share holders, the stocks carry a higher valuation. The greatest threat to this would be Biden (28%) or Bernie (35%) getting elected, which is part of the reason for the dramatic recent drops (in addition to Coronavirus fears).
Who are you trying to kid? The dramatic recent drops have nothing to do with the election, and the market even went up once it appeared that Biden would be the nominee. If you want to be taken seriously stop spewing every right wing talking point.
Sally Vix wrote:
X-Runner wrote:
Anyway
Almost a 3,000 point drop today
Pretty ugly. And pretty close to the opening on Trump's inauguration.
It'll come back.
But the thread title suggests it's on it's way back now.
My exuberance was perhaps premature. I indicated it was going to be a rough ride but I have always stated that by July or August it would have returned close to what it had been.
I really hope this is the case, but a global crisis of this magnitude, I just don't see us recovering that quickly. We were at an all-time high before so at that price, I would think the prices were inflated. I mean, if you take a look at any graphs, from December 2018 to last month, the pace of the gain is ridiculous. It basically shot straight up. Think about it, a company as big as Amazon went from around $1,350 in Dec. 2018 to $2,150 Feb 2020 in a span of about 15 months. That's some ridiculous climb up. I just don't see how the stocks will go straight up back to the level it was at in February.
Also, this global slowdown is affecting the entire world where so many people will be placed out of work and there won't be the confidence for people to spend like before.
One more thing, a lot of people have lost a lot of money in the past few weeks. A lot of money. Many investors were on margins and got burned. People won't have money to rush in.
My prediction is that stocks will fall even further. In my lifetime, I have never experienced a global crisis like this before. With 2008 crisis, I was younger where i just started to work so I personally didn't lose money. However, at that time, the crisis didn't affect everybody's lives as it is this time. So, I think this one is much much bigger.
Problem with this is that there's still no cure, and if we slow down for the next month, that will slow down the spread, but coronavirus will still be around so we still have to practice social distancing for awhile. Also, with everyone's routines changing for some time, I just don't see people rushing to spend money. Maybe the first month or so, but people have to remember to not overspend.
Last thing is that I think analysts are underestimating the amount of consumer debt. With reasonable interest rates, people have been accumulating debt. Look at all of the nice cars people drive spending a fortune. The quality of life in terms of products for people have been great the last decade with full keeping up with Joneses in effect, people have a lot of consumer debt.
Also, even though it's not as crazy as 2008, I think many have overspent on houses. Where, a lot of people are going to be in trouble soon.
joedirt wrote:
[quote]green screen Quotrons wrote:
Even after today's blood bath, S&P 500 P/E ratio is still above historic mean and historic median.
P/E ratios today are higher than historic means because the corporate tax rate is 21% instead of the usual 35%. With lower taxes on dividends for share holders, the stocks carry a higher valuation. The greatest threat to this would be Biden (28%) or Bernie (35%) getting elected, which is part of the reason for the dramatic recent drops (in addition to Coronavirus fears).
No. P/E ratios are far higher from Alan Greenspan era than in prior time period is due to encouraging U.S. citizens to purchase equities. It started a bit before Greenspan. Law & policy changes allowing for discount brokerage firms in mid-1970s. [Purchasing equities are much easier at discount firms and full service firms than purchasing bonds. Walk into a discount brokerage firm or full service firm with $100,000 or greater in order to build a bond ladder. A lot of work involved. Look at DJIA thread. They rarely talk about bonds even though U.S. bond markets are far larger than U.S. equity markets. Bonds are too complicated for most to discuss.] 401-K law in late 1970s meant fewer corporations offering pension plans. I have seen far too many co-workers and clients investing far too aggressively in 401-K. 401-K is supposed to be one's safe money. Getting back to Greenspan, I was younger when Paul Volcker was Fed Chair. Greenspan is the only Fed Chairman that acted as a cheerleader for U.S. equity investments as far as I recall. People are not looking at corporate earnings to decide if they will invest in growth funds with low dividends or value funds with greater dividends. Based on your corporate taxation statement, corporations would in theory have greater earnings. Greater earnings should not change price to earning ratio.
Sally Vix wrote:
Up close to 400 already today. Warmer weather going to wipe out this phony pandemic. Will be but a memory by July.
Who cares? Stocks are for rich people. Serves them right. They should work for their money like everyone else instead of gambling.