Coronavirus panic is based on speculation about the WORST case scenario

^ more trump team propaganda

started started the fearmongering to get back at china because he is losing his idiotic trade war

too late for dummy trump to fix that now

pointman pence has asked everyone to pray to eradicate the virus

meanwhile, americans are starting to die from trump's coronavirus disease

Inspector Norse wrote:

Using historical precedence, the coronavirus will probably closely track the patterns other emerging viruses that became pandemics

1) New virus is identified and contained to small population

2) Fear grows as the some people die off and more people are affected

3) Full blown panic as it becomes a global pandemic, everyone freaks out and economies falter

4) Virus dies down, finds an equilibrium in the human population and becomes endemic

This happened with MERS, SARS, H1N1 etc

This is the most likely outcome for COVID.

The WORST case scenario is that it behaves totally different, mutates into something more virulent and wipes out a large part of humanity. But there's really no reason to believe it will do that.

Well, if the virus isn't contained to a small population, it's not so typical. If the rate of contagion is too fast, the health system won't be able to treat serious cases effectively, so the mortality rate will be higher than expected. Panic ensues.

No need to be too complacent, any more than being too freaked out.

I like to know what the worse case scenario could be, and then get more reasonable once reliable patterns emerge. I don't want to lose long term investment returns any more than anyone else, but I don't want myself, or family members, to be immediately financially devastated by schools being shut down or jobs shutting down in just a matter of weeks. Rapid response out of an abundance of caution is called for.

As a general contractor, I just had a client cancel a very small project in their home because of the Corona virus. It was literally a two hour job, but since someone in this state contracted the virus, everyone had to to be vigilant. This type of bullshi¥ is happening at a micro level now but has macro economic ramifications.

I get it. People will get sick and some will die, but if the earth stops turning the same people will still get sick and die.

Democrats NEED this virus to be bad for the USA and the rest of the world.

Drinkin and postin wrote:

As a general contractor, I just had a client cancel a very small project in their home because of the Corona virus. It was literally a two hour job, but since someone in this state contracted the virus, everyone had to to be vigilant. This type of bullshi¥ is happening at a micro level now but has macro economic ramifications.

I get it. People will get sick and some will die, but if the earth stops turning the same people will still get sick and die.

The lunacy is at full throttle now. And we have doddering orange man at the helm of the country. The coronavirus will put us out of our misery.

When one of the most industrialized modern countries in the world(JAPAN) shuts down their entire school system for a month nation wide, that says something. - That is no fear mongering.

Those are war time measures, that is a huge risk to the economy, so clearly there is an immediate threat.

Inspector Norse wrote:

Using historical precedence, the coronavirus will probably closely track the patterns other emerging viruses that became pandemics

1) New virus is identified and contained to small population

2) Fear grows as the some people die off and more people are affected

3) Full blown panic as it becomes a global pandemic, everyone freaks out and economies falter

4) Virus dies down, finds an equilibrium in the human population and becomes endemic

This happened with MERS, SARS, H1N1 etc

This is the most likely outcome for COVID.

The WORST case scenario is that it behaves totally different, mutates into something more virulent and wipes out a large part of humanity. But there's really no reason to believe it will do that.

The stores near me are empty on the dry goods shelves. Canned beans, pastas and peanut butter etc are GONE.

trump propaganda wrote:

^ more trump team propaganda

started started the fearmongering to get back at china because he is losing his idiotic trade war

too late for dummy trump to fix that now

pointman pence has asked everyone to pray to eradicate the virus

meanwhile, americans are starting to die from trump's coronavirus disease

China lets a bioweapon escape, and you blame Trump. I guess Leftists are hoping for that sweet spot of a few thousand deaths, but not so much that martial law is envocked and 2020 elections canceled, and Democrats get strung up for their equating virus fears to racism against Asians just days ago, but no so few deaths that they look they paranoid fools.

Inspector Norse wrote:

Using historical precedence, the coronavirus will probably closely track the patterns other emerging viruses that became pandemics

1) New virus is identified and contained to small population

Historical precedence? It's totally different than H1N1 and SARS already. Italy? South Korea? It doesn't have to be worst case to be bad, but it's already much worse than all your examples. You sound like a just the flu bro.

Bernie will save us, just you wait and see.

BernieBro wrote:

Bernie will save us, just you wait and see.

Bernie winning in the fall would be the WORST case scenario. #NoSocialism

trump propaganda wrote:

^ more trump team propaganda

started started the fearmongering to get back at china because he is losing his idiotic trade war

too late for dummy trump to fix that now

pointman pence has asked everyone to pray to eradicate the virus

meanwhile, americans are starting to die from trump's coronavirus disease

OK, doomer.

Jerry Maguire wrote:

When one of the most industrialized modern countries in the world(JAPAN) shuts down their entire school system for a month nation wide, that says something. - That is no fear mongering.

Those are war time measures, that is a huge risk to the economy, so clearly there is an immediate threat.

Japan shut down their entire school system for a month? Wow...that's mindboggling and it doesn't bode well for the Olympics. Talk about panic mode!

Can't believe what I'm hearing wrote:

Japan shut down their entire school system for a month? Wow...that's mindboggling and it doesn't bode well for the Olympics....

They close down schools, but have thousands of spectators huddled together yesterday at Tokyo marathon. WTF were they thinking? They should have told people to watch it on TV at home if they are closing schools.

Inspector Norse wrote:

Using historical precedence, the coronavirus will probably closely track the patterns other emerging viruses that became pandemics

1) New virus is identified and contained to small population

2) Fear grows as the some people die off and more people are affected

3) Full blown panic as it becomes a global pandemic, everyone freaks out and economies falter

4) Virus dies down, finds an equilibrium in the human population and becomes endemic

This happened with MERS, SARS, H1N1 etc

This is the most likely outcome for COVID.

The WORST case scenario is that it behaves totally different, mutates into something more virulent and wipes out a large part of humanity. But there's really no reason to believe it will do that.

SARS and MERS did not become endemic. Their severity disabled/killed a high percentage of their hosts, limiting spread. And the consistent severity of symptoms allowed victims to be identified and isolated.

The novel coronavirus causing COVID-19 has the prospect of becoming endemic just because a high percentage of hosts who contract it have non-disabling symptoms or can even be asymptomatic as they spread the virus to others.

The realistic worse case scenario for the coronavirus causing COVID-19 is that it attains endemic status and mutates in the human population as the influenza virus does, requiring the constant development of shifting vaccines to keep up with the mutations.

The very real prospect is for "cold and flu season" to become "cold and flu and COVID-19 season", on a continuing basis.

Difference is influenza doesn't linger in the nerve endings of infected host causing cyclical asymptomatic (dormant) and symptomatic (outbreak) prodrome. Which begs the questions: 1) whether COVID19 will have any seasonal cycle like influenza or whether it will be spread year round since really the only thing preventing a chronically infected from being infectious is a robust immune system capable of staving off an outbreak from taking hold in any one individual; 2) What happens long-term to a person with each outbreak esp if those outbreaks go uncurbed (lack of treatment means further tissue damage occurs w each round of infection); 3) What is the cancer risk given the host tissues are assaulted widely and chronically?

Thanks for an informed post. I cannot believe anyone would try to minimize something which is so clearly highly contagious, its vectors not fully known due to interpsecies transmission, and has a high enough death rate that its impact is amplified many times above an ordinary virus.

I am resigned to the fact that just about everyone is going to get it. Can't see how it can be avoided.

The death rates for those 70 and older shoot up to 8%, and then 15% @ 80 and older.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-age-older-people-higher-risk-2020-2

Yes. I can't stand how guys at work say "it affects the elderly the worst". As if the elderly don't matter. Guy that told me that was over 60. Thinks it is just getting 80-90 year olds.

There's actually no panic yet. The market has gone done to a fair value for the supply disruptions. It was kind of a bubble the last 6 months. We're still at summer 2019 levels I heard.

A few extra people at Costco, but stores in the area I'm in with confirmed cases are business as usual. I don't see a panic yet. Panic is no good. Don't panic. But be prepared.