Jim Walmsley OT marathon prediction thread!

The Captain wrote:

To those saying that JW can't do well at the trials since it is his first marathon, Galen Rupp won the trials in 2016 in his FIRST marathon. Granted, he is way more talented than JW, the lack of experience thing didn't stop him from running a great first marathon.

There is no comparison there; vastly different are their running backgrounds/accomplishments and training buildups prior to their debuts.

I don't tend to care about what goes on in America as its a long way from where I am, but I hope Walmsley does well, he seems decent enough and hard working enough. He doesn't seem to have this big monstrosity backing him, getting him to take this medication or wear that Alphafly that was specially made for him etc. I doubt he will win, but I hope the conditions are awful because that will give him a better chance. I think where he could have an advantage is he will have low mental fatigue, this will be a short distance to him so he could kick from a very long way out.

3 place 2:11:47 beating Ward by 7 seconds!

flotrack.org/video/5378080-m-5k-h02-walmsley-1352-2012-stanford-invite

What was Rupp's Marathon PR relative to the rest of the field in 2016?

Lots of things can happen race day or on the build up. Kawauchi had no chance at Boston and look what happened.

over and out wrote:

There is no comparison there; vastly different are their running backgrounds/accomplishments and training buildups prior to their debuts.

At the risk of being pendantic, I want to clarify that I disagree with the idea Walmsley can't do well in his debut. I agree with Chavez (from SI) that he is a bit of a wild card. But I also disagree with the idea that his training is exceptional for the task at hand. I do agree with the idea someone offered earlier that maybe he should have put more threshold long tempo's in the mix. However, it is a fine-line, particularly not being fully committed for a significant period of time to road marathons.

45 years ago this spring Bill Rodgers broke 2:10 at Boston after two years of serious training. Prior to the race, Bill and his coach thought he was capable of maybe a 2:18.

Rodgers only did the occasional interval work, at MP or sub MP, in his build-up. Most of his training, practically all at sea level, was done and recorded by feel, according to the following paces:

(1) slow/jog;

(2) easy pace;

(2) OK pace;

(3) good pace;

(4) hard pace.

In his two week taper, the week immediately before the race was 97 miles total, slow and easy, except for the day which was six days out, as follows:

8 miles @ noon - hard-easy, flat

10 miles - 3 slow, 1/2 @ 2:30, 3/4 @ 3:39(?), 1.5 @ 7:25, slow 3.5, 1(?) jog

18 total

Warm out - ran 8 miles hard-easy at 12 noon over flat course. Ran 3 miles slow, then a 1/2 in 2:30, a 3/4 in 3:39 (?) a 1 1/2 in 7:25 then run slow for 3 1/2 miles home... legs achey. too F***ING STUFFED! and tired - no zip.

The week before that was 128 miles total, which included some hard running, and looked like this:

14 days out:

7 miles @ noon - flat, good pace

12 miles @ 3:30 pm - slow, easy hills

19 total

Ran 7 miles at good pace over flat course at 12 noon. ran about 12 miles at slow pace at 3:30 PM over easy hills course ...

13 days out:

7+ miles @ noon - OK pace, flat

10+ miles - 12 x 1/2 @ 2:28, 2 x 1m @ 4:51, 4:56 - 3 min jog between, 2 down

18 total

Ran about 7-8 miles at OK pace over flat course at 12 noon. Ran 12 - 1/2's in 2:28 w/3 min jog and 2 - 1 miles; 4:51 an 4:56 with 3 min. jog & 2 mile warmdown for a total of 10 miles tonight and 18 miles today.

12 days out:

8 miles @ noon - good pace, flat

12+ miles - good pace, flat

20+ total

Ran about 1 hour - 8 miles (?) at good pace over flat course at 12 noon. Ran about 12+ miles over flat course at good pace...

11 days out:

18 miles @ 4:15 pm - OK pace, some easy hills

Warmer out!!! 52°!!! & sunny. ran one work-out about 18 miles - 1/3 of it over easy hills course at OK pace at 4:15 PM. Felt tired & achey & unmotivated - still need sleep - as usual.

10 days out:

7+ miles @ 1 pm - flat

3 miles @ 6:15 pm

4 x 1m @ 4:49 w/480 yd jog [length of BC track]

3 miles after

18+ total

Warm out - 55°. Ran a hard 7+ miles at 1:00 PM over flat course and ran 3 miles at 6:15 PM; then ran 4-miles in 4:49 pace on B.C. track with 480 yard jog - then 3 mile run back - leg (left) a bit sore, from this AM's run - tired & achey...

9 days out:

8 miles @ 10:30 am - easy, flat, pit stops?

12 miles @ 5 pm - hard pace, flat

20 total

55° nice - still cool enuf to train OK! Ran about 8 miles at easy pace at 10:30 AM over flat course - stop & go. Ran about 12 miles at hard pace over flat course at 5:00 PM...

8 days out:

15 miles @ 11:30 am - fairly hilly

Beautiful day - only one run for 15 miles over fairly hilly Rocky Woods course at 11:30 AM. Walked 3 miles with Best Walker in the world! Done!

You've captured the American-bias perfectly. Simply because JW's build up does not resemble that of "traditional" American favorites, it immediately becomes discredited. I am, admittedly, a JW fan. I run ultras slowly, I used to race track to the best of my ability - but this isn't about me and my POV, it's about this board's inability to think beyond their sphere of reference in an objective and open-minded manner.

Americans, by and large, and not competitive in World Major Marathons. This means that athletes from around the world, who prescribe to various training methodologies, are regularly beating the pants off "top" American marathon talent despite their approaches contradicting what many on these boards consider to be gospel.

Furthermore, I can't think of a better training template for an athletes whose strengths lean toward endurance than the Japanese approach. His performances and workouts indicate that he is responding well to this approach and we should expect similar results to the athletes outlined by zzzz above.

The last point I'd like to make is that many people on this board are completely delusional about the depth of American marathon talent right now. 2:12 good for 11th? In 2016, 11th was 2:17! And while the weather was warm (I watched from outside of Staples Center), the course was pancake flat. There is no chance in hell the top 10 break 2:12 - this isn't Kenya.

I've said my peace and will now retreat to the shadows with the other lurkers and morans.

Nine qualifiers have run a faster HM. Eighteen have run under 2:12. Many others 'ranked' after Tim Ritchie that, were I a betting man, I would not predict to finish behind Walmsley.

- Lagat

- Brogan Austin

- Chris Derrick

- Sam Chelanga

- Ritz?...

- CHELIMO!

There are some other names on there that if I knew how healthy they were it would make a difference in my own personal ranking. All that said, if he cracks the top 20, that's a good day for him.

I also think that any claims of inclement weather or "the more hills the better!" has any benefit for him. The guys up front are prepared for absolutely anything. Not knocking Walmsley, he's plenty tough, but so is everyone else.

I wonder how well you guys understand 'Japanese training', if there is one definition. For instance, Inubushi appears to have stayed connected to his 10000m speed, since he broke his 10000m PB the same year he broke out with a sub 2:07 marathon.

I just want to keep things in perspective; I'm not trying to discredit Walmsley's approach.

over and out wrote:

I wonder how well you guys understand 'Japanese training', if there is one definition. For instance, Inubushi appears to have stayed connected to his 10000m speed, since he broke his 10000m PB the same year he broke out with a sub 2:07 marathon.

I just want to keep things in perspective; I'm not trying to discredit Walmsley's approach.

My perspective, and I've said it in previous threads, is that 5:00 pace (or 4:55) just isn't that fast. As a hobby jogger in college, I got down to a 4:55 pace 6-mile tempo run (and might have been able to do a HM at that pace if actually racing) not doing anything other than just a lot of distance and a 6-mile tempo runs (like the recent thread titled something like: 10K T once or twice a week). So I see 10,000 speed as not that relevant. It's how long you can hold a not-that-fast pace. Ryan Hall lost all his shorter distance speed later in his marathon career and struggled to run 29:xx 10Ks while still running 2:04:5x (wind aided, but still worth 2:06:xx), and 2:08s.

DietBacon wrote:

FFF wrote:

My prediction is that every prediction here indicating 10-15 coming in before 2:13 makes you unqualified to even speak.

This. I think a lot of people here are wildly overestimating what the winning time is gonna be.

I think the new super shoes (roughly -2 min) basically cancel out the effect of the hills (roughly +2 min). In the 2012 Trials, there were 4 guys under 2:10, 8 guys under 2:12, 11 guys under 2:13.

Race tactics will affect the times at the front. The weather probably won't be extreme. I checked historical weather there before, and it doesn't get that hot. Don't know about humidity.

Bump

zzzz wrote:

I think the new super shoes (roughly -2 min) basically cancel out the effect of the hills (roughly +2 min).

I forgot about the Alphafly. We don't know how much faster those are in testing, but we know that they gave a decent boost to Kipchoge over the Next%. Maybe all guys wearing Alphaflys will boing, boing, boing to an additional -1 min advantage.

I am pretty close to completely objective here. Not in either the fan or hate club. Not the on starting daily threads on this guy nor responding to the same. And I am not JS posting under another handle.

So, I have to give zzzz props. I don't agree with much on this thread. No chance 2:08:30 is 6th place. No one will break 2:10 and not top-10. Someone posted to that effect earlier and I concur. So, I'm dispassionately reading along and this post really caught my eye. Imagine we see an anonymous Strata user or some other verifiable training log - but no name - and it shows exactly JW's training.

There could be threads speculating who it is, and if so, names in the top tier of Trials favorites would be thrown out there. Is this Korir and whoever else from that training group? Is it Rupp, data being leaked despite years of secrecy after coaching upheaval and change? I have to think the peanut gallery would think it is someone at Ward's level - or even better but possibly foreign.

Now, attach a Japanese- appearing name. Doesn't have to be recognizable. Dozens of posters would be predicting great things. Maybe not quite the 2:04 - 2:06 that seems to be the current world class, but probably 2:09, which is to say, solidly national class in many places including here. Maybe 2:11 if things don't go perfectly.

Now, I'm not insisting that the reasonable prediction range is around there or not. I don't know. I haven't actually seen the logs and examined the body of work as a whole like I have looking at Mosop's entire Boston buildup.

But just from the very little info I've seen about individual workouts on this Board, I suspect the whole log would look impressive to many of you if no preconceptions existed due to the name and history of the guy being known.

I like Jim so I say 2:09 for the win.

I don’t disagree too much on the time, but do you really think there’s 20-30 Americans who can break 2:14? I think we’d be lucky to have 10.

rosshm16 wrote:

I like Jim so I say 2:09 for the win.

Ha, ha another delusional Walmsley fanboy.

I don't think anyone here can make an educated guess until we see Jim post his Yasso 800s on Strava.

I believe it will be soup and baguettes this year at the mile 22 aid station. Delicious.

Thrie wrote:

What was Rupp's Marathon PR relative to the rest of the field in 2016?

Lots of things can happen race day or on the build up. Kawauchi had no chance at Boston and look what happened.

Rupp jogged a 61 half marathon and won an Olympic 10k medal.

Kawauchi ran in some of the worst conditions ever.

Neither is relevant to JW.

65-68 for 2:14:20. 13th place.

Rupp 2:09.

Lagat.

Korir.

I’ll be back.